$400 max NL with $2/4 blinds -

Ten handed at a fairly loose for the time being table.
I am on the button with $570 in chips, Villian has $512 in chips.

3 people limp in front of me, and then I raise to $30 on the button with AcAs, get one caller from UTG, so I've got position. Villian is Tight-Passive/Passive with a 14.98% VP$P after 330 hands.

Flop comes 9s 9h 8h

I bet $35 into about $75 on a good flop for me, villian raises to $85, and I call hoping he is semi-bluffing or has the overpair.

Turn Kd

He checks, then I check.

River 9c - Putting 3 nines on the board. He bets $150 into $241, so I'm getting about 2.5:1 on a call, or do I raise, or fold? I pretty much put him on AK, TT-KK, but was a bit confused. I had a fairly tight-agressive table image.

So.. do I fold, call or push?

I'll explain the line I took, and post history later..

Push

push
if he has the nine so be it

Push, you will get called by a K, 8 or possibly any PP>8. I don't have any issue with calling only because he may have played a 9 just like this (that is minus calling a 7.5x raise.) I think we can safely rule out KK, given that he had two opportunities to raise it up pre-flop and pasted on both.

There are a few other things about this hand that jump out.

Raising to 7.5x the blind to open is extreme, even with limpers. If you really want to be strong 5x is plenty. You almost lost all value from this hand but were lucky enough to get a caller.

Betting less than half the pot as a continuation bet here is unacceptable. Let's go to $45-50.

Why check the turn behind him? The flop brought a flush and straight draw. I would not allow a free card to run off here with AA. Luckily the river could not have hurt you (it is a whoever was ahead, remains ahead card.) Let's throw out a turn bet of about $100.

By the way after this hand, you will need to realize your table image has changed from TAG to leaning towards passive post flop.

He made the perfect preflop raise, there is $14 in the pot when its his turn. He then raises 4x the big blind. I think 4x the BB is perfect in late position, and then add in all the limpers. If in this spot he raises to 20, then look at the price you are laying the blinds, and subsequently the limpers.

I agree that you have to make a larger bet on the flop, and a pot sized bet seems about right. In this case when you get raised, I don't like calling then checking behind him on the turn. I would have re-raised the flop bet and went from there. If he comes over the top for all your chips then you have a tough call, although your pretty much pot stuck.

I would have pushed here earlier, but the way it played out i would have pushed after the river for sure.

The preflop raise is good considering you need to chase 1-2 of the limpers away (not sure what their chip stacks looked like)....if UTG called it could have easily gone call, call, call on a lessor bet. His check raise on the flop looks like his attemp at taking the pot down. A pair of eights or 10 9 is probably going to bet that turn, though would a passive/passive player re-raise you preflop with KK?

A good reraise on the flop might have forced Mr. Passive off his K's if that is what he had. If that is what he has you need to tip your cap & pay him off. He checked the K but he might have thought you were scared of it too. My call is he has AA or KK.

our hero has AA and you think the other guy does to?

This pre-flop justification is an interesting theory. It is wrong by every expert opinion I have come in contact with. Aside from that, I play in this exact game structure. That raise would be entirely out of the flow of the game.

Pot sized continuation bets are a bad play if, when you make a continuation bet, it is of a consistent size. If you are a player who frequently varies the size of your continuation bet, then pot sized could be acceptable.

So ask your "experts" what is the proper amount. If they tell you 5x the BB here is correct, i want to play with your experts. If you raise to $20 your giving the BB and all the limpers 2-1, and if the BB or UTG calls, then your giving the other 2 limpers over 3-1.

Let's play it the way he did. UTG called and made the pot $74. The other two limpers were receiving nearly 3-1 on their money (2.85-1 to be exact.) They didn't call, but apparently you feel they should call with those odds with any two cards?

The fact is that players, and rightfully so, will take into account alot more than just pot odds when it comes time call a pre-flop raise.

The two most common explanations for why a pre-flop raise of this size is a poor play are:

-Lose all value from your hand when you receive no calls.
-An inability to make this sort of raise without this sort of hand.

Don't take it from me:
Chip Reese, "I think the most I would ever open raise is six times the (big) blind. I would have to be on the button and have nearly the entire table limp. Otherwise, I find a four times raise to be ideal."
(In this case only half the table limped)

Harrington has made numerous statements of similar content.

Feel free to play with them.

They are talking about "opening", and they are not talking about half the table limping. You are taking what you read out of context.

Actually, I believe Chip did mention limpers. He was talking about a situation in which he was on the button and nearly the entire table limped. Just read the quote bcook. A stubborn man you are. It's okay to be wrong sometimes, we are all learning on here. That is the point.

If Chip told me to raise a pot to $20 with $14 already in it, I would tell him he is wrong to.

Ok I'd say that both of you have good points. But I would have to side with making a raise of roughly the pot size, for a couple reasons:

1) You might just take down the pot right there, because you have table image which may just scare everyone off. This is good cause lord knows we don't need another "My Aces got cracked..." bad beat sob story cause he slow played his monster.

2) You can now focus on how that 1 caller has played and have a better chance to take down the pot even if you have a flop like this one where a limper might have hit a set of 9's.

3) You still could get a good value with a raise of $20 or so pre-flop cause you may get a caller with 10's JJ or something middle of the road cause they think your just playing the button, being that everyone limped you could be making a play at the pot with nothing.

This would be why a raise of $30 into a $18 pot is too much $20 is more likely going to keep one more limper into the flop, but he may have dumped some more cash into the pot post flop.

In the end I think it was still a good play but if it wasn't the way he had been betting then he may have lost money in the long run.

Just a few things..

--You're only losing to KK and 9x. Do you give him credit for either? If you have any inclination that he might, I probably just call. Though, I think it's a good card in that, we're not beat anymore now than we were on the flop and turn. If we think we've got the best hand, I probably raise. I think any King and a lot of 8's pay off a raise, too.

--I don't mind the preflop raise. I've seen 1/2 100 min/max buy in's where the opening raise is 25 and 75 to play, really. If the limpers are loose and like to see a lot of flops, then I think it sounds about right.

--Anybody like re-raising this on the flop?

--Good discussion, gentlemen.

Yes in my origional reply I said I would have reraised. After the preflop call, the pot is $64, hero bets $35 (i think everyone agrees this is not enough, but so be it) and the villian raises to $75. So now we have $175 pot, hero has $505, and villain $397. I would have put him all in. Even if you make a smaller reraise, say to $300, he only has $97 left, and surely its getting in there as well. So I would have reraised him all in.


I think you can eliminate KK, so your only losing to a 9. Not many Tight players would play a hand with just one 9.

I would call the river. Find Barry Tannenbaum's Cardplayer article from several issues back entitled Dangerous River Raises.

If he's tight/passive/passive, he is rarely raising the flop with overcards. He's also not calling a reraise with less than a king.

When you bet weak into the pot, he thought you had AK and missed. He raised. The K fell, and he got scared, but saw that you were scared too. It looks like he has something like JJ. After he sees that you're not betting at the king in position, he has every reason to believe that his hand is good.

So call.

If you thought that he would call with any full house, then raise. But your read suggests otherwise.

We tossed this hand around morning coffee & came up with ......

AA would have re-raised to knock out the limpers.
KK might just call (Passive)
AKs, QQ, JJ, 1010 would call

KK would check raise the flop, but we all agreed that some sort of lead bet would have been made on the turn to keep the pot growing. He's already check/raised once, is he looking to do that again? If he's got QQ, JJ or 1010 & checks the river you're sure to bet at him on the river with a minimum hand of AK. The time to raise him was on the flop so you just have to call. If the table was playing loose & he was capable of mixing it up could he have come in with 8d9d hoping to see call, call, call? That would explain his check on the turn & bet on the river.

Results

Sir you have said twice that he may have had AA, our hero has AA. In your analysis of this hand (twice mind you), you have brought up that the villian has AA as well. What gives?

Having had it happen to me twice this past year I will always include my same hand when contemplating fold/check/raise. I know its more common with AK/KQ type hands but I choose to always include it. I'm 1/0/1 in my AA vs. AA showdowns with the second one sucking out a flush.

Things that happen twice a year are not worth contemplating.

My wife performs the cou de gras twice a year & thats all I think about.

And the results..

Texas Hold'em $4-$8 NL (real money), hand #31,500,542

RIVER [board cards 9S,9H,8H,KD,9C ]
Villian bets $150, Hero calls $150.

SHOWDOWNV
Villian shows [ 10D,9D ]
Hero mucks cards [ AC,AS ]
conantcnj wins $541.

SUMMARY
Dealer: FoShizzleBoy
Pot: $544 | Rake: $3
Hero loses $265
Villian bets $265, collects $541, net $276

And about the pre-flop raise debate.. at that table, that moment, I think $30 was the correct raise. And a lot of the time that's a correct raise. If I just do 20, I'm looking at getting 4 callers.. and that's no joke. Odds of my aces holding up, slim to none. What I'm shooting for is to isolate this and get it heads up, or at most 2 callers. I felt like a fold here is pretty impossible, a raise is reasonable, but just calling it down probably has the most value.

The river 9 gave me just enough hope that he didn't have the 9 I was convinced he had on the turn to call, and hoped he was trying to make a move on the pot a mid-high pair or AK. With his preflop VP$P % so low also makes a 9 hard to believe. Only possiblies are 98s or T9s and even that is a long shot.

And to whoever said, "Why talk about something that only happens twice a year?" I would have to say I'm in these situations a lot more than you'd think, and anyone who plays 3-4k hands/day would probably agree with me.

Thank you for all the advice, and I enjoyed all the comments. Any constructive criticism is always welcome.

To continue this pre-flop debate....

Most great players would rather call and see a flop heads up with 910 against AA rather AK. Sound odd? The same with a small pair. The reason is if the underdog hits they are guaranteed a greta payout. Against AK, both players would have to hit, but the underdog make a "bigger hit" to get a big payoff.

That's another, granted a lesser reason for not playing the hand so outrageously pre-flop. If you are a standard or good player there is basically no way you are doing this on a draw. Given that this player is tight, he must have picked up on this in order to make what would appear to the untrained eye to be a loose call. Just food for thought. If you are more comfortable screaming strength and hoping everyone will bolt you are not alone.

Hey, I completely agree with the fact that any decent player is going to want to call $30 with T9s compared to AK or something, where it's likely he's dominated. They're about 3-4:1 dog with any suited connectors, , 4:1 with any lower pair, and 12:1 with AK. He definitely hit his implieds, and got max value (I think) out of me, and I do indeed commend his play. The fact of the matter in how this hand played out was that his VP$P was 14% and having seen no tricky plays or stats in any way from the player, is what I based my reads on. Also being UTG and way out of position, a player this tight pre-flop usually isn't open-limping with suited connectors, usually only limping in multi-way pots with position.

And of course your untrained eye comment has truth to it also, and 90% of the players at these tables are going to understand implieds, reverse-implieds, etc. Do I think he makes this call everytime? Not at all, he made it hoping to really hit me big due to the fact he thinks my hand is fairly defined. Which in this case, it was, but I mix my play up quite a bit, and this happened to be a time it boiled down to that. If I raise to 20, I probably get a certain 2 or maybe 3 players calling, and I could have easily gotten away from this when I see some raises and re-raises, but I definitely lose a lot of value by asking for that many callers.

I think it's much more likely for him to have had 88 than 9T. His turn check screamed "please bet at the pot for me," and gave me a chance to re-evaluate. Once he raises me on flop, I go into check-call/or re-evaluate on turn. If he's on a bluff, he's pretty much drawing dead, and I don't want to scare him away, if he has an overpair, he'll only improve on 4th and 5th street 10%.. another time I don't want to scare him away. And if he has the 9 with T9s, 98s, or is holding 88, I'm next to dead.

Ooops.. I digressed from the pre-flop debate, but I think in that situation I do the same again and hope for one caller, and would do it again. We all have our style, and I think it's the correct play. Over-raise preflop, maybe, but much smaller I think my reverse-implieds are shot, especially with the chipstacks.

I see it about like this, in a non-exact-statistic kind of way..
- 70 times of 100, he misses the flop completely. ($30 + $14 free each time)
- 20 times of 100, he hits a decent draw, and i get more money out of him 3/4ths of the time, while the other 1/4th of the time he hits and I can believe him when he bets, or pay him off.
- 10 times of 100 he outflops me with a flop like this and gets paid off

[Don't argue with the exact stats, but I think they'll be fairly close]

Just giving my opinion on that.. let me know what you think Jimmy, I appreciate the replies.

I agree with your evaluation of the rest of the hand. Just curious, if you were sitting in his shoes with 910s, would you have called your raise?

I would have. I doubt I would have been in the hand to see you raise, but let's say I limped UTG for some odd reason. I would definitely call the raise thinking I could hit a big payoff. Plus I would be thinking I am going to induce another call behind me with the now improved odds the pot is offering.