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FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > No Limit Texas Hold'em Cash Games
2bthebest
I don't have the HH so I will try my best

FCP .10/.10 NL

I am 1 before the C/O facing 4 limpers with Q icon_suit_heart.gif 9 icon_suit_heart.gif , I read all weak players so i raise to .75 trying to win blinds and limpers, but the C/O and Button cold call while blinds and limpers fold
Pot=$2.80

Flop comes 10 icon_suit_diamond.gif J icon_suit_heart.gif 7 icon_suit_spade.gif . I bet out $1.50 as continuation bet, C/O raises all in to 6.25, Button re-raises all in for 9.25
Pot =$19.75.

I would have to call $7,75 to win a $27.50 pot, which means I need a better than 28% chance to win to make this call profitable right?

As for my outs, I figure all the K's and 8's for the straight are clean, and am counting 1/2 an out each for runner runner trips, or runner runner flush. Giving me 9 legitimate outs.

So 9 outs =35% to win with 2 cards to go.

First question: Is my analysis of pot odds and outs correct?
Second question: Do you make this call or lay it down?
Scott3705
The only thing I think you forgot to consider (although it doesn't effect my analysis here as the action is being closed fo rthe entire hand) is that even if all your outs are clean, you need to discount your odds if a player has a set, which is very possible here.

I make the call here. 27.5/7.75 = about 4 to 1 and you're about 2-2.5/ 1 to win.
bcook823
Yes your figures are accurate. Don't fool with the runner runner senarios, for they may not be clean outs. The only time I'd consider runner runner senarios are if I can 100% put him on a hand. Then the outs are accurate. So if you don't count those you are still about 30% to win, and thats good enough to call here. How deep are you?
2bthebest
QUOTE (bcook823)
Yes your figures are accurate. Don't fool with the runner runner senarios, for they may not be clean outs. The only time I'd consider runner runner senarios are if I can 100% put him on a hand. Then the outs are accurate. So if you don't count those you are still about 30% to win, and thats good enough to call here. How deep are you?


I had both covered. I know what you mean about runner runner, so I feel like I already discounted them some. I thought that some of the King outs might be dirty though.
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