Bodog 1/2 NLHE (9-handed)

Hero $369
MP3 $183
CO $272

Hero is SB w/ K Q . Hero is viewed as somewhat tricky. CO is TAG, and we got the better of him without a showdown in a decent pot ($60) half an hour ago.

Pre-flop:
UTG calls

Flop ($25): 2 8 K (5 players)
Hero bets $7.50

Turn ($82): 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $60

River ($202): 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $80

Hero folds the turn unless he has intentions of calling a decent sized river bet.

Why would you call the turn then fold the river?


I'd lean towards folding the turn though.

fold, He probably flopped a set, and the spade didn't help him, since he was betting strong on the flop. You could raise and represent the flush, but he would probably call

bc the flush got there

call the turn
fold that river

I don't like that.

If you're worried about the flush draw then raise the turn.

Raise or fold the turn.

i dont like a raise here, he's calling w/ ak, a set, two-pair, etc.

why i like a call here is that if our opponent has ak or a weak two-pair he'll probably check behind on any river since the pot is now substantially large. plus, a set will probably check behind if a scare card peels off

we can also c/c a safe river... bc now we know our opponent most likely has a monster or a busted draw and often it is a busted draw

I don't think it's more often a busted draw than it is AK in a raised pot. I don't likely call the big flop raise, and if I do, I'm either pushing or folding the turn, with a tendency towards folding that turn.

i just dont see ak betting the river unless a non-spade ace fell

But if we're giving him credit for AK why are we calling the turn? Hoping to spike a queen?

Do we think we'll stack him if we spike that queen? If the answer is yes, then that's fine. Go ahead and call.

We relinqueshed control of this hand and we either need to get to showdown as cheaply as possible--which we lost the chance to do by not keeping control of the hand--or fold.

the way i see it, we're getting 2.3-1 on our money on that turn. if our opponent does have ak, then i doubt he's betting the river if we call this turn.

plus, i dont see our villain holding ak either. if he did, he chose a strange line. he's fasting his hand, yet he only smooth-called a small pf raise. my instinct tell me that if he is the type of player who fast-plays, then he would have reraised in the co w/ ak. a set is more likely imo.

again, im not saying that we should call on the turn... or the flop for that matter. i dont like the line our hero took at all (weak flop bet... cold-calling oop). however, i just dont like the turn check/raise bc i see it as -ev.

I agree that the turn c/r is bad. But I don't see the point in leading out the turn when we lead weak, and called a big raise on the flop. I'm probably ditching it on the flop. We're also assuming he doesn't have a set, which is very, very possible by the action. He may be raising and leading so hard to price us out of an assumed flush draw, if he had a set.

Personally, I probably play KQs in this situation to hit trips, top two, or a big draw. Not just TP2K--I think that's chip spewing.

out of curiosity, how would you play this hand?

i'd reraise to 20 pf... and continuation bet 35 regardless (if we went to a flop), but that's just bc i hate small pf raises.

I hate KQs in a raised, three way pot. But, I think that's the best line, we have position on them.

I either fold preflop, depending on the read of the MP3 who made the initial raise, or come back over the top for 20-25, since we've been abusing the CO, and then impose my will on the flop, regardless.

I don't like the flop bet at all. This is a very weak bet and as we see someone is taking advantage of our weakness. Fold the turn or call the river. I mean the only river card you want to see is a queen or king right?

It appears CO was waiting for you. He weak river bet makes me think u r dominated.

For me, I'd likely lay this hand down. I'd put the CO on either A-K or 8-8. he raised you each time hoping to get you off of a possible flush draw and I don't know if you moving all in on the river is going to get him to fold the best hand. It's possibly, but if you were looking to steal the pot from him on the river, I'd have likely made a big bet right away instead of checking it. Since he's already committed $180 to the pot he may feel obligated to call the remaining $90 if you go all in at that point, unless the previous pot you played managed to get him off of his game.

I would have folded preflop. KQ is crap.

On the flop, I also don't like a call. I would prefer a reraise there and see what he does or fold to the reraise. If he moves in, you muck. if he calls, try leading once more on the turn. The only hand he can call a reraise with would be AK or better.

I dont like the weak lead on the flop. After his raise I think its either fold or raise. This is one of those situations where I think you can implore a limit mentality. This is just an idea before i spew so any feedback would be nice. If you call knowing you are calling a bet on the turn for any nonspade why not reraise. You call 20 more on the flop and then 60 on the turn. Why not raise it up another 50-60 on the flop. If he pushes, fold. If he just calls you may get to showdown with no further investment.

Different scenario:

lets say instead of the SB we are the Button. Pot is 25 just like it is now. SB bets $7.50 into us on this flop. 3 folds to us. Anyone rasing here?

Some good discussion here, guys.

You've totally missed out on Hero's best river option though...unplug his internet to get disconnect protection (thus showing down without putting more money in). Lame, huh?

I was the CO in this case. Funnily enough, I had 7 6 . For better or worse, I play my draws aggressively with position sometimes. Picking up the OESD on the turn helped somewhat. Just glad to know that I represented what I was trying to represent. Despite my monster draw, I really wanted him to fold what's obviously a king on this turn. The question is whether I could've gotten him to fold on the river if I missed my draw. When he called the turn, I figured that was somewhat unlikely.

I knew you wouldn't weak bet that flop. Very uncobalt like.

NH Well Played

:-)

I know we're a bit biased now, but does everyone else think my line (with the 76s) is reasonable?

I'd be really tempted to check the turn, but I can see reasons to bet.

The only reason I'd be inclined to check is because the villain is tricky (not really sure what kind of tricky). We also have a lot of implied odds if we hit our OESD.

Of course you can never really know the exact frequency of someone calling with TPGK considering this opponent on this board in this situation, but I'd say that if you feel he's going to call with TPGK a good amount of time then you should give more merit to checking the turn and catching up.