screech
Sunday, January 22nd, 2006, 8:45 AM
QUOTE (Actuary)
flop cap, only mistake
Screech can play this preflop, no doubt.
His post flop skills would let him play 56s here.
This is what I was thinking. I see armirillo agrees too.
I'm glad that people aren't ripping me apart pf. With 3 people already commited, overlay from the blinds, and decent realative position, I thought this was a pretty easy call here. If there had been no limper, I think it would be very close.
As for the flop, I think my first raise is a must. I have ~9 outs (straight is discounted a bit becasue a J won't give me the nuts), so with 2 callers, the raise has value. It may also set up a free card, which I'll gladly take.
I think my only mistake was the flop cap, but I don't think it is as big of a mistake as some are making it out to be. It's certainly not a spew. Anyway, I missed the fact that CO called/3-bet during the hand. I thought he was the intial bettor. His call/3-bet usually indicates a very strong hand like 2 pair or a set (though occassionally it will be something like QJs or something weird), so may straight/flush outs have to be discounted due to redraws. Instead of the 9 outs I initially gave myself, I think it's somewhere between 7-7.5 outs after he pulls this play. It also makes it more unlikely that I can get a free card with my cap. Still, while capping may be slightly -EV, it's definetly not a spew simply because I still have around 28% equity in a pot that will likely be 3-way and will occassionally get a free card.
Turn is incredibly standard, and everyone agrees on that.
I really wanted to 3-bet this river, because 3-betting is fun, but I don't see how that can be correct. CO either has a FH, or the same straight as me. Given the action so far, it is very likely he has a FH. I'd rather go for an overcall from sb. Plus, if I call and it goes 3-bet/cap, I will be very happy I saved that extra bet.