I have some thoughts on the PFR's hand. What's your read?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($203)
UTG ($195.35)
UTG+1 ($235.25)
UTG+2 ($169.05)
MP1 ($191)
MP2 ($130.05)
MP3 ($102.85)
CO ($50)
Button ($92)
SB ($244.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5:diamond:, 6:diamond:. CO posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($19) 9:diamond:, 7:spade:, A:diamond: (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $10, MP1 calls $53, CO folds.

Turn: ($155) 8:diamond: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $122 (All-In)

Okay, I'm calling in this situation.
But without info on person i cant be sure.

You gave him two to one on the flop so his call was correct if he had KQ s. He might have hit a set or REALLY overplayed ace king.

So of those, the raise preflop just makes me think he doesnt have it. but wait, why did you call pf?





With more info i could give a better answer


PEace

[quote=David_Nicoson]I have some thoughts on the PFR's hand. What's your read?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($203)
UTG ($195.35)
UTG+1 ($235.25)
UTG+2 ($169.05)
MP1 ($191)
MP2 ($130.05)
MP3 ($102.85)
CO ($50)
Button ($92)
SB ($244.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5:diamond:, 6:diamond:. CO posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($19) 9:diamond:, 7:spade:, A:diamond: (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $10, MP1 calls $53, CO folds.

Turn: ($155) 8:diamond: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $122

Hmm..

Interesting.

Is he tricky enough to be betting a draw on that flop? We priced him out if he was. We're beating a set, which is a possibility.

What're his preflop requirements? Does he normally raise a hand like KQs or KJs from MP?

Is he likely to overplay a hand like AK or AQ postflop?

His push makes little sense with anything but a flush. Why just smooth call the flop if you're going to push the turn?

And why didn't you lead the turn?

I tend to be of the mindframe that we played this hand to hit the flush, we hit the flush, now we should probably call. But I'd like to know if you have any reads or such before you call.

No, he's a rock.

13% VP$IP
4.2% PRF%

Raising with KQs would be a loose raise for him. That's what I ultimately put him on, but that's out of character, based on 70 hands of play.

Sorry, that should've been in the original post.


Maybe. I was very surprised at the flat call on the flop. I would've thought that he would fold or raise there. The half-pot bet on the flop seems weak to me. And I'd think he'd play back on the flop with a set. If has AK or AQ, he has a diamond to go with it.


I'm not confident in my play at the turn. I'm committing my stack if I bet the turn, and I had the sense that my opponent had hit nut diamonds. It doesn't really add up either way. Maybe he had AA and threw his money in as a semi-bluff. That always sounds like a good idea when I'm angry at myself for not raising the flop.

That's probably right. I folded, so I can't tell you the result.

Geez..so he's got a set? This is kinda a wild hand. If he's that tight, I'm guessing a set or a hand like AxK . I dunno how we're not ahead really. But, then again, for him to smooth call the flop, and then push the turn when the diamond gets there..gah.



So it's likely AK/Q where the K or Q is the ? This hand is weird. Heh.



Yeah, I can see that. One of those, "Fuck, you probably just got there, but there's no way I can stop my hand from not atleast clicking bet" kinda things.



Yeah, I dunno. I gotta wince and call, I think, and just hope he's over playing AK or I can dodge a 10 outer of his set. I think you need to probably call, otherwise why play it, ya know?

I was going to guess AxK but DD beat me to it.

HA, i was kinda right, with KQs outta the way, trips would be my first opinion


CALL


Whatd he have?

I folded, but let's say a set.

I'm quite certain he had a set. I call. (Actually, I would've bet into him on the turn, but under these circumstances, I still call)


I very much doubt he had AxKd or AxQd: Pushing here makes no sense in position.

Cheers,

Merby

Speaking from experience having emerged from my rockish past, I would say set. His thought process was something like this.

"I flopped the nuts.... good, I guess I am going past the flop this time for the first time in like 3 and half days. Better bet out, my hand is good."

OP raises:

"A raise how grand, I think I will slow play."

Call looks strange to OP. Turn comes the 3rd diamond.

"Bloody christ, I don't want to be out drawn by runner runner flush. to his A-K with one diamond. I had better push all-in and to prevent a bad beat."

Jams.

In summary, rocks tend to jam as soon as there monster appears vulnerable.

now that's a tight fold

im paying this off 10 out of 10 times


and what's with that massive flop raise? it achieves nothing that a smaller raise to $30 wouldn't achieve... very donkish imo. actually, it does achieve something, it gets you pot committed, so if he does push all in, you'd be foreced to call off all your chips as a 2-1 dog.

Are you sure that it doesn't price another, higher, flush draw out? It doesn't define any hands? It doesn't win us the right there most times?

And paying this off 10 out of 10 times against a rock is -EV, I assure you.

#1. fearing a higher flush draw when we already know 4 diamonds are out is a classic monster under the bed scenerio. it's not going to happen often enough to justify such a massive overbet.

mp1 either hit the flop with an ace (and in this case, most likely isnt going anywhere w/ this board) or is fearful of it is just continuation betting. if he did indeed hit the ace (or set or whatever), he's not folding to 63 if he's not going to fold to 30. if he did indeed miss the flop (say w/ queens), he's going to be much more fearful of a $30 bet than a $63. he knows that if he calls on the flop, he'll most likely face another bet on the turn/river and is more inclined to fold just losing $16 on the hand. on the other hand, if he faces a $63 bet and does read the bet for what it's worth (semi-bluff), he may just stick all his money in the middle since the pot is now very large and he'd be willing to get all his money in as a 2-1 favorite for it

#2 rock isnt calling such a massive overbet on that flop w/ just a flush draw. so either our read was wrong or our play was wrong

I'm gonna try and piece this together. Next time, I'd really like it if you used the enter button a little more liberally. Not trying to be an ass, but, it is slightly difficult to read.



It doesn't happen often, no. But a hand like QxQ or KxK might not mind peeling one off. AxK same thing.

You also failed to address the idea that we're winning this pot here, more tiems than not. You failed to address the idea that it disguises our hand or defines the others involved. Still curious to know what you think about that.



I disagree. I think a bare AK calls 20 to win 50, and folds to a 53 dollar raise. JMO. By making this raise we're largely definining the opponents' hand.



Why is this a problem? Do we not want him in with Queens while we're still representing an Ace, or a set? Let alone if we hit our flush?



And this is unacceptable because?



It's not just a $63 bet. It's a check/raise. Most people, myself included, tend to take check/raises at this level to mean strength. Fair enough, though. If his read is correct and he wants to put it all in with a set or AK than we just bite the bullet and hope for a diamond.



I don't understand how getting a rock to fold a higher flush draw means our read or our play was wrong. You're completely dismissing the fact that against a rock, showing great strength, we often take this pot down on the flop.

valid points, but i still disagree
im going to rule out villain having another flush draw

every bet serves a purpose. what are we representing by betting raise $53 on top in a $40 pot? either a monster (2 pair, set) or a semi-bluff. if your opponent reads this as a monster, you're right, we're winning this pot right now. however, if our opponent does indeed hold a good hand (ak, aq, set) he's more often than not coming over the top and now we're forced to call. by raising so much, we've committed ourselves to a pot that we're losing 60% of the time.

on the other hand, what are we representing by raising 3x his original bet ($20 into a $40 pot). we could still be semi-bluffing, but we may also be attempting to extract value from a monster as well. or... we could simply be holding a naked ace and trying to find out where we are. it adds another dimension to our bet and makes our opponents decision much tougher. as a matter of fact, by keeping the pot small, we're telling our opponent that he still has 2 tough decisions to make on the turn and river since the majority of the money is still in front of us. so therefore, if he does indeed call w/ say a-q and we lead out the turn for $40 we allow him to get away from his hand since we've kept the pot small.




it clearly didnt since we're having this discussion



and so is a $30 c/r. im not disagreeing w/ the play... i just disagree w/ the amount. and also, i take overbet c/r's as signs of weakness... just like flop/turn stop and goes, minbets from early position, and small pf raises.


my point is simple. i like the play, but hate the size of the bet. this is a hit or miss flop for our opponent (since we hold the only true draw and him having a higher flush draw is not very likely). if it's a hit, he's more often than not not folding to such an overbet. if it's a miss, he's folding to a $20 raise just the same as a $53 raise.

Just a couple things..

[quote=Davin]if our opponent does indeed hold a good hand (ak, aq, set) he's more often than not coming over the top and now we're forced to call. by raising so much, we've committed ourselves to a pot that we're losing 60% of the time.[/quote]

60% of the time we're called we lose this pot. I think we make other hands lay down more often than not, though.

[quote=DrawingDeadInDM]Most people, myself included, tend to take check/raises at this level to mean strength.[/quote]

and so is a $30 c/r. im not disagreeing w/ the play... i just disagree w/ the amount. and also, i take overbet c/r's as signs of weakness... just like flop/turn stop and goes, minbets from early position, and small pf raises.[/quote]

Wow, then you and I are certainly playing some different games. I'm not saying overbet c/r is always immense strength, but, a good deal of the time it's someone just rushing to get their hand paid off.

I still like the flop raise, I'm not sure ya can convince me of different. I think we make AK and AQ lay down here a lot more than you do, so we're not going to get past that.

Good talk, though.

Y'all have me convinced. The fold was mistake. In my defense, I gave you more information than I had at the time, as most of those 70 hands happened after this one.

The pot is 19+30=49. My raise is 63-10 = 53. Or 1.08 of pot. That's not a massive overbet by my definition.

When the PFR raiser bet half-pot into that board, I don't expect to see a set. If he has an offsuit AK, I don't mind putting my money in as 1.07:1 dog.

Supposing the cut-off has a draw, he's going to like his chances if the PFR raiser calls. He's getting 89:20 or 4.45:1.

I'm a bit more ambitious than you're imagining with this raise. I'm trying to make a hand like AT or AJ fold here, not just an underpair.

Edit:
It's 1.08 of pot, not 1.08% of pot.
Now that I think about it, I'm really trying to get AK to fold, too. My bet says set, come and get it. A good player has to consider that TPTK isn't the winner there.

Hah! I was right, for once.

As Smash would say..

"Man, I'm the greatest."

I found this guy at UB. He says he had AA.

So you know he has AA, if you knew 100% he has AA, what would you do?

I'd flat call the flop and then bet the pot on the turn when the flush hit.