or maybe not

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with T:spade:, J:heart:. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.50. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) T:diamond:, 9:club:, J:club: (7 players)
Hero checks, BB bets

i often have the best hand on the flop, but with 7 players, unless i improve i am almost never going to have the best hand by the river.

i checked to see where this went, and when i saw that many people staying in, i said to myself, hey i think i can raise in a profitable way to create odds to call to hit my boat on the turn.

i'm pretty sure that's terrible logic.

I would've just lead out and hoped people folded or hoped it got raised immediately after me (and yes i realize i had no way of knowing the bb would bet when i had my flop decision).

Could we check/call and wait for a safe turn card or does the possibility that someone already has a straight make no turn card that safe?

I think checking with the intention to raise a late position bettor is fine, you want to fold gutshots, and leading out will give them odds to call.

However once you get that early position bet I say call, then lead the turn. Hopefully our betting friend will raise and everyone will fold.

"creating odds to peel" is a really flawed idea... I'll let you think about it for a minute or 2 and figure out why

Creating odds to peel isn't a flawed idea. It's just somewhat meaningless.

I figured I was wrong.

Anyone have any ideas on how to play this hand in that position with that many players. That flop came down and I was lost.

Try to get the most bets in as possible. You have a big equity edge on this flop.

Im leading this.

lead this for the simple fact that it getting checked through sux balls. There's no guarantee anyone will bet. You really don't want to give a free card.

Creating odds to peel is a flawed idea. How is saying something like "I'm going to raise my gutshot on teh flop so I have the odds to call the turn" not flawed?

antistuff,

this is a pretty interesting situation. IMO, your best bet is to check the flop and hope for a LP better so you can protect your hand. Sooo many bad cards can hit the turn.

However, when the person to your left bets and gets all those callers, you are getting 12:1 on your call. You can't protect your hand with a raise, so it seems like you should wait until the turn so you can lead out and hopefully get raised by the player next to you.

However, there are so many scary cards that can come on the turn that either you or the flop bettor may freeze up. If you bet, and he calls, your opponents will be getting at least 8.5:1, and nothing will be protected.

With all these callers on the flop, I think your best bet is to just raise now to exploit your immediate equity. You will win this pot at showdown somewhere around 1/4 of the time, so a raise will show immediate expectation. Just hold your breath and hope your hand holds up or improves.

So yea I was going to post then screech basically covered everything.

Raise the flop all day for value. At this point its pretty impossible to protect your hand vs any gutshots, OESD's or flush draw but your equity is reasonably good on the flop.

imo.

even c/r'ing a lp bettor won't protect your hand, excpet perhaps against a 7.
other hands that might fold are weak T's, which you would like to stay,
A9 might fold...

anyway..

I think bet/raise is best to exploit the equity edge.

even c/r'ing a lp bettor won't protect your hand, excpet perhaps against a 7.

I disagree there. Couldn't we check the flop with the intention of c/r a lp bettor, and when bb bets out we just call and wait for a safe turn to raise?

Yeah, but giving a free card here is horrible. We have no guarantee that anyone will bet, and we really really really don't want this to get checked through. Bet/raise is best line and I dont think its close. If there was a PF raiser and we could count on him to bet so we could c/r, thatd be different.

you mean, lead a safe turn and hope BB raises ?
or c/r a safe turn?

my contention is that the pot is not "protection worthy" right now, and our hand is stronbg yey vulnerable, yet hard to protect... thus I conclude, we build the pot and pray.

Trying to protect your hand here is pointless. You'll almost never get people here making tight folds - only people calling bets when they shouldnt be. For instance, a J or a T with no kicker that is drawing nearly dead to you. You want people who are drawing slim/dead or for a chop with someone elses draw to be contributing as much as possible. An OESD is not going to fold for 1 bet, not for 2 bets and probably not for 3 bets if it's the high end.

Just lead the flop.



That's obviously wrong.

There are so many turns and rivers that'll leave you with the best hand.

Sounds like something I read once...

"
Sometimes a flop raise will not protect your hand. When these situations occur, you should often just call the flop. If the turn card is safe, you plan to protect your hand then with a bet. This is especially true when the pot is large and a lot of forth street cards might cripple your hand.

So the best plan is to call now, hoping for a free card. If forth street is a blank, plan to bet then. If forth street ruins your hand, you should usually check and fold (though sometimes you should call depending on the specific car, the action, and the pot size). Either way, you are better off having just called on the flop.
"
--Ed Miller SSHE pp 160-161

that would be true coran, if a turn bet would protect our hand. it wont.

A turn bet followed by an early position raise will make it unprofitable for many weak draws to cold call 2bets.


--cm

if you are sure we will get raised. It's a scary board, we might not. And even if we do, we only price out weak draws. we still don't protect our hand very well.

I totally agree with Rise, totally, like for sure.

We aren't even in pos to be the raiser, so we have to count on someone else doing it.
On this board, if we wqake up on the turn, we are unlikley to get raised. Best to just pump it for value. We do have top two folks. Huge equity edge against 6 opponents

this is pretty much the logic i use in situations like this. if i know i have an equity edge and i don't have any other good ideas, i'll just bet/raise to push it.

i'm certain i'm missing some logic, but i don't know how your EV for the whole hand is higher by calling the flop and leading a safe turn, like SSHE suggests, rather than just bet/raising (i figure 3-4 bets go in on this flop most of the time).
seems like waiting will win us the pot more often, while bet/raising wins us a bigger pot. don't know how the numbers work out, but seems like our equity advantage on the flop is big enough that the pot that we will win less often is enough bigger to make up for the times we don't win it.


and i don't want to start a brag thread, but made a great laydown just now in 2/4, wanted to brag. i raise in middle position AQo, big blind is TA and reraises. flop comes 9TA. he bets, i raise. he pauses about two seconds, and calls. he quickly checks the turn and i suspect set. i bet, he raises, i fold immediately. he shows his cards and says "wish you had an ace." i love it when they pause, then quick-check the turn and raise. never a bluff.

That would be an awful raise. -EV decisions are bad.


For example, if you have 50% equity, you can pump up the pot to ensure that you have odds to draw and see a SD. If you don't, you'll be losing that tiny bit of equity where you miss and fold but then would have caught runner runner. However, it usually doesn't matter whether you give yourself odds to draw and draw, or don't and just fold. As long as you're making the correct decisions after pumping (or not) and the betting structure doesn't interfere, it doesn't really matter.

sluggo,

if you are saying its good to raise if you are likley to win more than 1/n times, n=# of players in pot, then sure..we all know that

raising to createe odds to call later, is not +EV, if the equity edge was not there at the time of the bets