Last night playing at the local card room, we're nine handed and most of the players at the table are predictable, loose and there to gamble.

UTG ($20) Limps $2
Folded to SB.
SB ($400) raises $5 to $7
BB (Hero 8,8) ($165) calls
UTG re-raises all-in.
SB calls
BB raises $100
SB calls.

Flop: AQ9

SB bets $50

I had pocket 8s.

What do you do?

Fold. nevermind...i didn't read it clearly. What was the UTG's all-in worth?


ugh...early mondays...ok, so UTG goes all in for $20, SB calls, you make it $100 (for some silly reason, probably to isolate the UTG....by the way you lose the right to call others loose and gamblers....) and the side pot is called, side pot being worth $160 to the main being worth something like $60.

You risked half your stack into two raises. You should know at least one of them is probably good for an ace. Let's say they are totally crazy and played that way with JT or something. We could also guess that maybe one of them has a pocket pair, chances that it's higher or lower than yours at that point is probably better than 50/50. You still have the problem that you got a flop with 3 over cards on you, so even someone playing K9 has you dominated here.

First you have to ask, do you think you have the best hand on the flop, and also consider, you don't have any draws (save an 8, because if you do fill the straight with a JT running the last two, you have the bottom end of a str8 and are more than likely dead in the water), and ask if you need to defend that $100 you put in the pot.

Personally, I think you have to play it. Even though your dead to rights, you put yourself in that mess, time to pay the piper (or maybe you hit your out, no one improves and he pays you) but you kind of stuck yourself here. You can only fold if you think you can get yourself back together enough in this session to cut a lose or get back to even.

UTG only had $20. SB had about $400 and I had $165.

I'm having trouble reading the history. "8-close parentheses" is that insipid sunglasses smiley. Check "disable smilies" to fix it.

Did you call off $100 preflop, or re-raise $100 preflop out of a $165-stack to isolate the all in?

Either way, I think you have to fold for the flop bet from $50, even in this big a pot. Also, either way, I think your preflop isolation or call wasn't very brilliant.

If you've got one person all-in, and another person called off $100 more preflop, you've got to put someone on "better than a pair of 8's" with an A and a Q on the flop. That means you're 2-outing if you're behind, and making a move is pointless or suicidal.

I'm not a huge fan of isolating that big with your 8's if that's what you did. This is a cash game, not a tournament, and you're playing a draw to a set/boat to win a huge pot. Just call the 20, let the other guy in, and play it from there rather than raise off all your stack.

Sorry about that. Here's how the action went.

UTG limps $2
SB raises to $7
BB (me with 88) call the $7
UTG goes all in for his last $17 or so
SB just calls.
I put him on AK-AQ or worse and think there is an excellent chance they are sharing an ace and will fold if they miss the flop.
The raise to $100 was too much, no doubt. $50 would've done it and given me the same information.

My point is I don't think this is a great situation to isolate.

Even a raise to 50 is a third of your stack, and your hand can

a) easily get out-flopped
b) you're committing yourself to a showdown with a vulnerable hand

Why not just call the $17? If SB is a donk, put the big bets relative to your stack in on a 7-3-2 flop, or my favorite, the AK8 flop. Yes, you are probably ahead here preflop, but if you push this edge now, you can really get screwed later.

By calling, the pot is smaller, so you can use your position on SB to make a move if you like. If not, you can just check/fold. Any move you make wouldn't endanger your stack the way isolating here would.

If I had QQ or maybe JJ I'd think about isolating. I don't think you're passing up much by not isolating with 88 here though.

I know the SB will fold if he misses the flop, which I'm failry sure he will 70% of the time here. The raise to $100 was an attempt to isolate the UTG player. I'll agree that since UTG is all-in, I'm basically a coin-flop, but there is now an extra $25 equity in the pot. The raise to $100 was too large, but I was ok with the fact that the SB called, considering I felt I positioned myself well to win a large pot when I had the best of it.

Am I the only one who thinks folding pre flop is accurate here; we're playing for a sidepot in which we're up a huge stack and just the call for 7 dollars with the UTG to act does not merit 8's a good enough hand to call anyway?

Also, aren't small pp's here (88 is pretty small, Lindros is not) super crappy 3 handed?

77-TT are my favorite hands to play in NL because they're so flexible... and their implied odds are just as good as 22-66.

Preflop, the first call is $5 in a $11 pot in position on the raiser.

The second call is $10 more to see $40, if I counted right... still in position with 88 on the raiser who has a deeper stack. I think it's a pretty straightforward "just-call."

I have no problem folding to SB's flop bet on the AQx flop... and things get really interesting on 7-3-2 flops or even something like a T-6-2 flop. If you make a move on either of those flops, by just calling preflop, you're not overextending yourself... and you're leaving room in your stack to be able to make this move. Our implied odds on the preflop call are as deep as SB's stack.

If my read is correct and my assumption is right that he'll fold if he misses the flop. I'm about 70% favorite here. My read was that he had two big cards and was very likely to be sharing an ace with the UTG player. He led out for $50 on the flop and I folded. He turned over AQo.

The UTG player turned up with 8s10s. the turn was a 10 and the river was a Q. I lost the hand, but despite the fact that I lost and I now think raising to $100 was too much, I think I played the hand very well and put myself in position to win a big pot.

I appreciate all the feedback. My read on the two guys involved in this hand is that they are there to gamble and do not really think about the odds, percentages, etc.

Here's another question. How do you like the "call" from the SB? Do you call here?

Tim

If you have 88 and two villains have AX and AY, where X and Y are both greater than 8 but not equal to each other, I think you have somewhere around 40% preflop equity 3-handed... it's definitely not 70%. Don't forget that the all-in guy gets to see the river for free.

Heads up against AY, if you think one of them is killing a card for you, you're still only about 60/40 heads up against him. Yes, it's an equity edge, but your post-flop visibility can quickly go to sh!t on a flop like that.

You are correct, I'm 40% to win with 88 against AX and AY if both X and Y are greater than 8. I'd say it's 50/50 the UTG player has complete crap of Ax where x is lower than 8. However, since the SB called the flop raise, I'm much greater than 50% to win the side pot assuming he folds when he misses the flop. I did not think he would call and figured I'd be coin flipping with UTG with some extra equity in the pot.

Agreed. I wouldnt have even thought twice, especially three handed knowing im at risk for all of my chips with a low pair when i could be dominated.I dont depend on spiking an 8 thats for sure. Cuz i would never find one.

If you're saying fold to the $7 raise in the BB, I'll let you know there is no freaking way am I folding 8s here. I know if the flop comes Ax8, I'm doubling through this sucker. I can lay down 8s when I miss, but for $5 I am definitely calling. If I hit a set and he happens to have an overset or makes a straight or something, that's a risk I'm willing to take. I am as certain as you can be at the poker table, that the SB does not have AA or KK when he just called the all-in from the UTG player, so I even think the raise from the BB was correct, it may have been too large, but I'm still happy that he called. I just don't see how you can fold 88 here to a raise from the SB, that would be playing super tight.

Here's another question. How do you like the "call" from the SB? Do you call with AQo?

Perhaps i missed something because i didnt take the time to read a portion of this thread. There was a raise to $7 BEFORE the UTG moved all in? Correct? Help me understand the hand a bit better because im intrigued.


Edited: Okay, I see the UTG had 20$. I might fold my 8's if there is 1 or more calls to this $20 reraise. Sure, if you get lucky and spike an 8, your more than likely going to get paid off. Very tough to call another bet postflop if the flop comes out A high minus an 8.

I don't fold 88 here.

But I also dont re-raise PF to $100. That's just bad.

If these guys are that bad go for the trap on the flop w a set.

Making sets are going to make you the most money in No Limit Cash games, no doubt.

They will make you more than your AA and KK hands.

Smooth call and hit that set.

- Jordan

I felt very strongly the SB had big cards. I lost a hand earlier to these exact players when I raised with AK. Once called with AJo and the other with Kh9h. The flop was all hearts with a J and the donk with K9 won a big pot. These guys are horrible. I was ahead and knew he'd fold if he missed the flop. I don't mind putting in $100 here pre-flop although admittedly betting less would've been less risky and he was a likely to fold to a $40-50 re-raise as he was to $100. My goal was to isolate UTG and get the equity in there in the coinflip. I'd been playing tight and can't believe he called with AQ. He told me, he was "hoping" that I had KK. Seriously...

How do you like his call there with AQ? Would you make that call against a tight-aggressive player?

Smooth call preflop, check/fold the flop?

It's really not that exciting to have 88 with three overcards.

I had no choice but to fold, but I was most pleased with creating a favorable situation for myself to win a big pot based on the actions and stupidity of the other players. If that flop comes all rags, I basically risked $100 that the flop would come without an AKQ. I was absolutely sure the SB had AK or AQ and that he was weak enough to check it if he missed the flop, so even if it came with a K, I know he would've still checked it and my bet would've forced him out.

Maybe it's not a great play, but so many times you flop a set and you get sucked out on my a flush draw, the odds here are almost the same as a flush draw hitting on you. I think it's a good play if you are totally confident in your reads.

-sigh-

Obviously he's a moron for calling off $100 OOP with AQo. That doesn't make you somehow more righteous for your brilliant preflop isolation play of 2/3rds your stack.

At the end of the day you're still out 100 bucks. Quit trying to accuse stupid players of playing stupid when they beat you. Learn from it, adapt, and break them. Call the all-in, flop an 8, and THEN make him call $100.

And if you don't flop an 8, quietly check/fold.

Exactly.

I'm not blaming him, just trying to justify my read. The guys a moron, my read was right and I created a $200 pot where I was a 2/3 favorite based on my read. I think it's a weapon to add to your arsenal against bad players.

The pre-flop raise was too much. No doubt about that, but I still like raising given my read.

Couldnt agree more TJ

I think raising to $40-50 would've been a better play and a follow up bet of $100 if the flop is low cards or if it's checked to me. Let's keep in mind this player is only playing his cards, not mine..

Yes but on a loose table, I dont see anyone folding for 40-50 more.

Its not exactly wise to value raise a coinflip.

At the risk of sounding patronizing, which I'm really not trying to be, I think this is a great opportunity to delve into the intricacies of "waiting for the turn to raise."

This was the hardest concept for me to understand in limit hold'em, because I couldn't understand how you're supposed to just call one bet on the flop with AA in a 5-way capped pot, and then raise the turn.

Here's the thing: You are at best 60/40 ahead preflop. That's ONLY if homeboy is killing a card for you. You can push this edge hard now, to 50, 100, or 165, but that's a calculably large portion of your stack.

If you just call, and you flop good (where "good" is defined as him having only 5 or 6 overcard outs), your equity changes from 60/40 to closer to 80/20.

$100 x 60% equity = $60 adjusted value

but...

on the T-6-2 flop (reading him for overs) and THEN betting the $100, you have

$100 x 80% equity = $80 adjusted value

$80 value > $60 value, so calling and betting the FLOP hard would be better than betting preflop.

Of course, there's a tradeoff to calling preflop, because if you flop bad, then you're on the wrong side of the equity. That's okay though, because 88 is vulnerable to overcards anyway!!!

Please ask any question you want to pertaining to this subject, it's one of the more important things to understand. Don't push tiny edges hard in no limit. Wait for the big edges.

For the record, I know and don't care that the math isn't exactly right. Just pretend it is, and you'll see the underlying principles, which is the most important part.

Great stuff

It's not a coinflip if he only sees three cards. The small stack is all-in, the other guy has just flat called the re-raise and I am very confident that he has two big cards. He gets three cards, not five to make a pair.

If you raise $100 preflop, the pot is now $240 on the flop. Your last $65 at a $240 pot with a 7-3-2 flop... he's actually almost +EV to call with just two overs, EVEN IF homeboy is killing one.

That's the whole point!!! Do you see?

TJ, first thanks for taking the time to write such a thoughtful post.

Here's my question. If I just call then there is no money in the side pot between myself and the SB. UTG is all-in. The SB likely folds if I bet $100 on the flop if he does not pair. Then I'm down to a race with the BB for the main pot of $60. If I raise the flop and he folds, I'm in the same spot racing for the $60 in the pot with the UTG player. If I raise the flop and he calls and I know that he has big cards and will fold when he whiffs the flop, I have created that 66% equity and the move should have a +EV of $66 or whatever the exact chance is that he whiffs the flop with AQ (in this case)

There is $60 in the main pot between myself, UTG and the SB.

There is now $200 in the main pot between myself and the SB.

There is $60 in the main pot between myself, UTG and the SB.

There is now $200 in the main pot between myself and the SB.

I agree, I made a mistake raising $100, it was too much, since it did not leave me enough chips to get him to fold even two overs.

Well, you're right, it wouldn't be very smart to bet $100 at a (if I counted right) a $50 main pot and a dry side pot.

If we flop bad, which is what happened, we can get away from it for SB's pot sized bet. An added benefit to just calling is the pot is smaller, making it easier to get away from.

If we flop good, we're in great shape to gamboool. SB has to act first. If he makes an ill-advised continuation bet with just overs, then we c0ck-slap him with our all-in in position.

If he checks to us, we bet 50, to which he's paying dearly if he calls. If he calls that, hopefully the turn is safe for us to move in. It's no great catastrophe if he folds, and we're heads up running it out against UTG in a $50 pot with a made pair and 2 cards to come.

In tournaments there's a gentleman's code about not playing dry side pots to knock someone out. The great thing about cash games is that it's aaaaaaaaall just money, and side pot or not, you're both contesting $50.

and if the flop falls with big cards, and you invested your 40-50 with a reraise, then what do you do?

Also, if you havent already, please read TJs post

I'm fold if he bets. But I bet the $40-50 with a +EV based on my read and the odds he would miss the flop and fold when I bet. It's much better than even money given the strong possibility he's sharing an ace.

The SB calling the raise with AQ was +EV for me, considering he misses the flop 2/3 of the time and check/folds when I bet the flop.. If he folds, that's fine too, now I can race without worrying about three or maybe even four overs.

Yes, you're right that SB calling the raise is +EV for you. But, you still have to fold $260 for $50 because the flop, like Judge Smails, says you'll get nothing and you'll like it.

When we say EV+, we're just saying it's EV positive, that it has a positive expectation. The choices are EV positive, negative, or neutral. It doesn't say anything about how other ways to play it are comparatively MORE positive.

$100 is bad, and we've agreed on it.

$50 isn't as bad as $100, but it's still bad.

The graph has a global maximum at calling. It's linear.

Calling is good, because we get away cheaply when we flop bad, and can push a much bigger edge harder in position when we flop good.

Ok....I see your point and what your trying to do. Do you honestly think this is better than limping in and just smooth calling the raise, keep in mind that you believe you are a better player than him and have a good read him so you will know if he caught a piece of the flop, and if you happen to catch a nice flop you can fire a bet out there and put the pressure on him. And if it does happen to come out with big cards, you can get away cheap.


I firmly believe that you have to play with the table. Meaning that if its a loose aggressive table, You shouldnt try and get in their and mix it up and push people around, because your most likely going to get called.

Damn hes good.

His approach is more conservative but gives a lower expected value. If the SB folds, not only do I have a better statistical chance to win the hand since it's heads up, but I have the added equity in the pot from his $20 call and subsequent fold. If he calls and I'm correct on my read, we've created a nice side pot in which I'm a substantial favorite to win.

I think you can play it both ways, I like the way I played it, I want the side pot, b/c UTG could have a monster hand, but now he's closed out. Plus, I always look for edges like this and think this was a unique and profitable opportunity.

Thanks for the input TJ. I"ll keep considering your point, I just am not convinced yet.

To each his own my friend. Good convo nonetheless.

Well I'll keep trying to convince you then.



Let's talk about this. I think what you're forgetting is that everything is weighted by equity. EV is very amorphous at times... and I'm trying to prove that "maximizing aggregate EV now" (for lack of a better term) is NOT always as good as doing the same thing with a bigger edge.

I think I was stressing the wrong thing with the whole "adjusted value" post.

If we're 60/40 and bet $100, then maybe we should also look quantitatively at the "edge." If we're 60 and he's 40, then the edge is the difference, of 20%. Consider it a quality of the bet, like how vectors in physics have both magnitude and direction.

That "magnitude" of an edge increases threefold if we bet the same amount with an 80/20 equity split... a 60% edge, which we can get for ourselves by passing up the 20% edge now (60/40 preflop vs. a possible 80/20 on the flop).

The other details are just mitigating factors. The mitigating factors are that we're in position, we're heads up, we can fold if the board sucks, and we can decide if we wanna be committed or not ON the flop instead of BEFORE the flop.

This is in no way substantiated by anything I've ever read in a poker book, by the way... and I've just made it up. I'm fully prepared to be wrong, but that's the best new way I can explain how it makes sense to me in my head.

Without the added rather unusual detail of having a substantial main pot and dry side pot, I would probably have just called the raise with the 88 and played according to your description. Perhaps this hand represents a special case, where at the spur of the moment, I put the man on a hand and decided that the best way to make money in this situation was to raise. Either he was going to fold, and I'd gain equity in the main pot, or he'd call and I'd have a decided advantage in position and heads up in a five card race. My bet was too large, since I did not leave myself enough chips to force him out when he missed the flop, that was certainly a mistake.

Your reasoning makes a lot of sense if the UTG player was not there and only the SB had raised into my BB. I don't think raising from the BB with the 88 would've been the optimal play based on your reasoning.

wow you guys sure like beating a dead horse

- Jordan

This is an interesting thread. The underlying concepts of what play is right are very important if you want to be successful at any form of poker.

I don't play many NL cash games, so I don't have the experience as many of you. Logic alone tells me TJ is correct here. It's not really that close.

What's the best case scenario for your 88? That you're a 55/45 favorite. In fact, if you get called, you may easily be a 4.5:1 dog. The $100 raise pf was really pathetic. The best play is too call, but if you're insistent on pushing your edge, you should just push all-in.

This is similar to the concept of forgoing a small edge now, to exploit a larger edge later in LHE. There is a big difference however. In NL, you can exploit that larger edge at a much greater price. Also, the concept is usually applied from the flop to the turn. Here it is pf to the flop. 3 cards get flipped up, so the equity change is much more drastic.

But don't take my word for it. Here's an article by Sklansky that describes this concept. His example uses QQ vs AK, which is a much better position than 88 vs some random good hand. Here it is:

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue10...lansky1005.html

He's not going to get past the flop if he whiffs it. I'm going to push all-in and hopefully he'll fold just two overs. As I've said, I did not leave myself enough chips to get a good player to fold, and that was a mistake. If he only gets three cards and he misses 2/3 of the time, I'm a 2:1 favorite. I was absolutely positive that he had big cards and not an overpair based on his previous play and the way he played this hand. If you play mostly Internet poker, you probably don't understand what I'm talking about when I talk about reading a player and putting him on a hand. Sometimes, you can be close to 100% sure about your read.

Regarding Sklansky's article, if I'm up against an aggressive player that I know will chase a flush draw, I'll typically wait until the turn card to make a big bet. I"ve found he's much more likely to fold with one card to come than two. A situation where pushing a larger edge later is something I definitely like to do.

Ok.

Given your read, why didn't you wait until the flop so that you knew where you stood?

Was your pf raise designed to get him to fold, or to get him to call as a very slight underdog?

I won't claim to know **** but this doesn't seem to be making any sense to me so I will also use this as a learning experience. I haven't started reading my Theory of Poker yet so I am not up on the Equity part yet, but TJ is making me interested.

So you have 88 and you think he has AQ or AK so you are going to push to get him to fold and if not hope to hit one of 2 cards. What's the chance at hitting your set on the flop 9%? But if you feel he is holding tow large cards does he not have a better chance of hitting one of 6 cards on the flop than you do of hitting 2? Yes, if you hit the 8 then you are looking damn good and your play makes you a fricken genius. I don't see why not waiting to the flop to eitehr go big or fold. I guess I could see going all in but to me it's just that all in or call preflop. I understand that you have your read on the guy and you wer correct but I am not getting your reasoning for raising AT ALL in that case.

Don't flame me and ****, I am just here to learn and to learn sometimes you need to ask questions.

Great topic though.