The thing he seems to forget is that his good read meant that he was basically "flipping coins" for his entire stack.

That is not a good move, I don't care who you are.

The key is, to quote Rounders, "Always leave yourself outs."

By smooth calling preflop we can play our hand the way middle pocket pairs are designed to be played--by hitting a set and breaking AK or AQ, or by picking up a smallish pot on a "low" flop.

The raise to 100 preflop takes away both of those plays, other than just hoping to hit a set--which we'll do in in 12 times--great odds.

I don't like to make plays with 88 for my whole stack unless I've got a set--that's just me. We're basically hoping for two kinds of flops here. AQ8 or 765. Not a whole lot else.

I agree I'm not a fan of the reraise here.

Just to clarify the odds:

I think flopping a set is 8.3 to 1. (I think you meant about 12%, not 1 in 12 times, but just making sure )
Set or better is 7.5 to 1

And I think (although someone can correct me here) that having a set by the river (which the 88 in this case is basically looking at by pushing almost all his money in) is a bit worse than a 4 to 1 shot. (18% or so?)

Mark

Heh..whoops.

As for the side pot between myself and the SB, My 88 is good after the flop 2/3 of the time, when the SB does not hit an ace or queen in this case on the flop. If he misses the flop he would fold to my bet. I don't need to hit an 8 to win the hand. I was right on my read and bet $100 with a 70:30 chance to win. If I made this $100 bet 100x, I would expect to win $700. If the UTG player has two overcards as well, I've increased my chances of winning the side pot from 40% to over 50%. AQ vs 88 is a coin flip if AQ gets to see 5 cards, that's one reason why AK is a stronger hand late in a tournament when you have to push all in with it, you get five cards.

At the same time, with the SB out of the pot, we have increased our pot equity in the main pot now that we are heads up with the UTG player.

Anyway, I think you can play it anyway you like.

I like TJ's argument. Here's some more "food for thought" on the subject as to why I think calling pre-flop is the best option:

Portcityplayer, you said that you have a good read on your opponents as being weaker players who call too much (calling $100 with AQ, "hoping" you had KK for instance). Let's look at what we know pre-flop:
1) You have position on the SB
2) You have a good read on him as having two big face cards
3) You know he has a poker blind spot: he tends to call too often.


Given the above, why not maximize? Based on (1) and (2), you know you should be able to outplay him post-flop -- whether that be
a) Making him fold on a flop he didn't like, even though it was a bad flop for you.
(eg: betting $50 into the $60 pot on a flop of [b]2 9 T, after he checks to you)

Getting away from a flop that may have been good for him
(eg: The flop comes [b]Q T 2. In either case, you have position, so you can fold to any bet from the SB, and if he checks, looking for the trap (or because he only has KJ), you can check behind him and get a free turn... possibly hitting your 8 )

Finally, due to (3), you should EASILY be able to maximize profit if you hit your set.
d) If the flop is [b]A Q 8 I guarentee all the money is going in on the flop, with you as a huge favourite.

e) With a flop like [b]2 5 8, now we make a small ($10) bet on the flop -- based on your read, he will probably call this with just two overs. On the turn, hopefully he hits a pair, and you can punish him... or just chip away again ($10 to $20 on a brick turn). Going to the river, once again, we hope he pairs up, and we cash huge, otherwise, when all is said and done, EVEN if he totally misses, based on your read of the SB, you should be able to "punish" his poker blind spot for at least $50 on the hand.


Cheers,

Merby

OMG!!!!!!
screech, that was a good article...I especially liked the last paragraph:



it reminds me of something......

Fold.. point less chasing $7 unless you had aces or kings... and nothing else

fold