Limit 3/6 Live (7 handed)

Preflop: Hero in BB with T 9
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, 2 folds, Button limps, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop J 2 5
Checked around

Turn 8
Hero bets, UTG calls, 2 folds

River K
Hero bets...


Table notes:
Typical 3/6 live table without a lot of raising and 3bets are almost non-existant
Villian - nice guy but likes to guess what everyone has on every single hand, goes into the tank all the time and talks like he know it all. Usually betting when strong.
My table image - tight, only betting with at least a big pair (although I'm betting draws all time).

How often do yall bluff on the river if your draw doesnt get there?

Bad bet on the turn imo, all 3 players aren't going to fold behind you enough to make this worth it. This pot isn't big enough to try to force your way to victory.

With that said, I don't mind a follow through bet on the river once you've made the turn bet. It really depends on your opponent though. Do you have any stats or reads on him?

I count 4.25 big bets in the pot heading to the river. Your expected value if you bet and he folds is +4.25 big bets. Assuming he will only call with hands that beat you on the river, your expected value when he calls is -1 big bets. If he calls 4 out of 5 times, you can expect .25 big bets return on investment. If he folds more than 20% here, you can expect more value, but if you think he will not fold 20% or more of the time, then you should not bet the river.

You do realize he picked up an OESD and a flush draw on the turn right?

The turn bet is fine, I fire at the river again as its such a draw heavy board.

Oops, I only saw the OESD he picked up on the turn, I wouldn't bet here with just an OESD. With an OESD and flush draw, the turn bet is fine.

My suggested play for the river still holds the same from my last post.

If you think he folds 20% or more of the time, i'd bet. If not, i'd check.

100% of the time, until I have to show.
then less often

i hope your not bluffing missed draws that could win a showdown . . .

excellent point.
Aganist lags, often c/c here with hands like Nut-no-pair.

i've been up 24 hrs....

Um, this is 3/6 LIVE, usually the lowest game spread. You can't bluff these games.

I wouldnt exactly say that. While you do have a lot of calling stations (usually preflop) at these tables, you see a lot of extremely weak post-flop play. The game seems a lot more passive live than online (although I have no evidence to back that up). When someone raises the turn, the majority of the table thinks someone has the nuts. It's weird. It's not uncommon to see someone fold TP (and actually show his fold) when a third suited card comes on the river and someone gay bets. They pride themselves in big laydowns. I know people are folding winners.

However, I still bluff very rarely. I only do it if the situation presents itself. I'm wondering if I should be doing it more often.

This is a somewhat interesting hand, I think.

I'll try to put him on an approximate range of hands:

I'm going to figure that he probably doesn't have a J (assuming he'd have the flop), or had anything better than top pair on the turn (assuming he would have either bet the flop or raised the turn.

I'll assume that he wouldn't have called the turn with a 2 or worse, but would have with any 8 or 5, or any pocket pair, or with any flush draw or OESD (even though he's only getting 3-1), and would have folded anything else.

I'll assume that he'd limp UTG with any two suited, any pair J's and lower, any A or K, and any two cards both 7 and up.
----------------------------------------
HAND COUNTING

Then his hand range on the river would be:
87, 8Q, 8A (12*3=36)
89, 8T (9*2=18)
8K (9)
57s, 5Qs (3*2=6)
5A (12)
59s, 5Ts (3*2=6)
5K (9)
TT, 99 (3*2=6)
77, 66 (6*2=12)
44, 33 (6*2=12)
Total made hands on turn: 126

Additional busted club draws: 36 (Kx-8, A-high-7, Q-high-6, T9-1, worse-14)

Busted heart draws (no J): 28 (K2-1, Kx-6, 2x-6, A-high-5, Q-high-4, worse-6)

Addional busted OESDs: 4 (T9-4)
----------------------------------------------------------
SO, HIS RIVER HAND RANGE (based on the above assumptions) IS:

Note: Obviously, this is based on many assumptions. I'm just trying to get a general idea.

Pair of K's or better: 33
99-TT: 6 (or better: 39)
Pair of 8's: 54 (93)
66-77: 12 (105)
Pair of 5's: 24 (129)
33-44: 12 (141)
Pair of 2's: 6 (147)
A-high: 12
Q-high: 10
T9: 5
Worse than us: 20
----------------------------------------------------
Based on this hand range, if he'll call a river bet with any pair, but fold A-high, then bet/fold is not good; he'll at least call with 147 better hands, and will only fold 22 better hands. And the pot's only laying 4-1.

If he would not call down without at least a pair of 8's, then bet/fold is close to break even, as long as he never bluff-raises. If he ever bluff-raises, then bet/fold is still -EV.

Even if villain is a frequent bluff-raiser, bet/calling would probably be -EV; there are siimply not enough reasonable hands he could hold that we beat.

However, because our flush draw is somewhat transparent, check/calling is an option. If villain would only bet T9 and worse or a pair of K's or better, and if he would always bluff his bad hands, then we'd show a profit by check/calling, since we'd be getting 5-1 on the call, and he'd be bluffing over 1/3 of the time.

CONCLUSION

I would not bet. Villain is likely to call with any pair, since our flush draw is somewhat transparent.

I'd check/call if you felt that villain would read us for a possible flush draw and almost always bluff anything T-high and worse here. But, I'd need a very good read to do so.

Otherwise, I'd simply check/fold.

Yeah? Nice. When I play 4/8 at Foxwoods, the lowest game they spread, people will call and call raises if they've hit any part of the flop. Bless their little hearts.

I noticed the same when I went to Vegas, although there it wasn't as bad. Go figure.