Another hand I played before, that I discussed with a few people.

loose 4/8 game.

I limped with j10s, from Mp3, and everyone had called to me.

CO folds, button raises, every one calls.

Flop k93

Checked to button who bets. Its called to me, and I raised.

Good or bad play?

this isn't exactly a value raise ... i don't think you are likely to get a free card either ... may be worth it if it causes more people to pay you if you make your straight

Im assuming the flop was rainbow.

Either way I don't really like it. The button may 3bet and thin the field, and you aren't cleaning up any outs. I think peeling is best.

It was a typical loose low limit game. I decided to make the bet, as the only hand button would 3 bet here is a set. Just that type of player, and always made continuation bets.

However, you are right tim, my raise couldve been foiled by a 3 bet, which cuts the "value" from my raise.

No, what REALLY cuts your value is the fact that you're only drawing to 4 outs, and not getting nearly the action on your 10-1 shot that you need to start pumping the pot for equity.

Just call, man. You're probably getting odds to see a river, anyway. If you have a backdoor flush draw, this becomes a little better, but I still don't think you've got enough going on to put a raise in.

...raising with a gutshot draw.

well, you *did* say it was a loose game. bad play.

this isn't exactly a value raise


It isn't?

it is?

I'm thoroughly confused now. Can someone please state the correct move here?

If the button always makes continuation bets this makes you raising the flop much worse. I would love to hit on the turn and be able to checkraise the entire field

Well anyways, I peeled off the queen on the turn, and split the pot with some other guy with the same hand. Now, when I was raising here, I was thinking, I am getting the odds to peel the turn at least, why not raise for value (w/o actually calculating it). Thats why I posted this hand, to see if it was infact a value raise at all.

Btw, to the person who said peel and c/r turn, the button wasnt a VERY dumb player. He just liked to maintain aggression. I couldnt count on his bet on the turn.

You need to be able to figure out whether an action is profitable or not on your own. It's not difficult, and asking questions like, "Is this bet profitable?" when you have all the available information is a waste of everyone's time.

Learn how to do the maths yourself and save yourself the headache

it is?


I think so.

It's 10 to the flop, right?

You have a 10 to 1 shot to the nuts and likely other marginal backdoor draws. Everyone's calling.

How is not for value?

good luck.

If it's 10 to a flop, that implies you're getting 9:1 on each bet. And the CO folded. So it's 8:1.

Not everyone is calling.

All the hands that your raise gets to fold are the hands that will be drawing slim to dead when you make your draw.

Not everyone is calling.


Right, they're going to fold getting almost 40 to 1, gotcha.

This is a mindumblingly easy equity raise.

EASY.

good luck.

When it gets back to you on the flop, there are already 27 SB's in the pot. So, if the turn is a blank, you're already priced in to peel on the turn for 1 bet, and probably for 2 bets. So, you're almost certainly going to see the river. A gutshot is about 5-1 to hit by the river.

So, if the flop is rainbow, then as long as you get 6 or 7 callers here, you're definitely getting value from a raise. (If you only get 5 callers, you're probably not quite getting value, since you might make a straight and still lose or split.) Plus, raising and building the pot improves your implied odds by tying people to the pot.

There would have to be 11 people to the flop for this to be a value raise. That's why I said "not exactly."

Just like when we are 2 to 1 to complete our four flush, we would like to have 3 players, not 2, seeing the flop before raising for value.

This is a more interesting argument. But what if it is bet and raised in front of us on the turn? Then we probably aren't getting odds to see the river.

Tim,

I think Smash is referring to the fact that we probably have a bd flush draw to go with our hand making our equity worth 7.5:1. Unfortunately OP never mentioned whether or not the flop came with one of his suit. Or maybe he did further down in a post. I just skimmed through. With a bd draw, it's a very thin raise. Without one, it's a clear call.

That being said, raise 'er up pf.

I call too. If you think you can get him to dump his hand because he isn't holding a King, ok. But if he's paired the board at all he's likely to call (or raise if he does have the king and good kicker or two pair) and all you will have done is chased players out of the hand that could have paid you off if you let them in when you hit your Q.

Also, you may find yourself missing the board heads up and calling all the way down on a pot that isn't really worth the headache.

If you call the flop, and there's a bet an a raise in front of you on the turn, and everybody else folds, you would only be getting 16.5-2 immediate to call, and you'd fold, especially since it could still get raised behind you.

But I don't think that's a likely scenario. So I'd go ahead and raise the flop. I think calling might be better if there's a two-flush on the flop and you don't have a backdoor flush draw. But if the flop is rainbow, and/or you have a backdoor flush draw, I think there's definitely value in a flop raise.

I'm absolutely lost here.

Show me the value in making this raise.

Give me the numbers. Mathematics. Something that shows we win more money by raising than flat calling

Wang

If it's a ten handed game, and if everyone calls, and if there isn't a set out, and if we have a bd flush draw, we are getting 7.5:1 on our raise against 8 opponents.

A lot of ifs. If everything goes according to plan, this raise has about as much value as raising a fd vs 2 opponents.

Things to consider:

1) Mr. Nice Guy claims the BD flush draw is unneccessary for the raise to be profitable

2) We're 9 handed, at most. The cutoff folded preflop, and we're not sure whether 9 or 10 players were at the table when the hand started.

3) A 3-bet's not out of the question from somewhere. This could lead to reasonable folds.

4) If even one player makes an unreasonable fold, we're starting to leak.

5) I was considering mentioning that with 7-8 other players, we're likely vulnerable to redraws when we make our straight (giving other players gutshots to the same straight to split, getting other players half-way there on their backdoor flush draws, or other players 2-pair hands that suddenly have 4 outs to beat us), but it's likely insignifigant when contrasted with our running TT or JJ outs. We could probably safely subtract a quarter-ish out from our original 4. It's statistically significant, but I think objections 1-4 are more important.

I still want someone to give me some numbers here. I vehemently disagree that this raise is profitable

I'm basing this on 5-1 odds of making our hand, instead of 10-1, since the pot's so big that I'm almost positive we'll be seeing the river. So unless by raising we lose several players, I think we get value from it.

(This is something we do all the time with flush draws (you're getting 2-1 on the flop but 4-1 on the turn), but rarely with straight draws, because usually the pot isn't large enough where you already know you'll have to call on the turn, but here it is large enough).

Holy shit.

I completely forgot about our equity from the flop to the river. I was looking at it from teh flop to the turn. I probably do this way too much with hands that aren't 8 outs or higher.

Easy, easy, value raise.

Thanks MNG.

I ran some pokenum tests on a variety of hands...

Basically, if noone has a set and there's no obvious flush draw on the flop, we're at almost 20% equity with 7 others in the pot. So we're getting 7-1 on our raise with a 5-1 shot at having the best hand at showdown.

If we're up against a set, our equity shrinks down to 14%, basically making a raise break even.

Against top pair and a flush draw we fall to around 8%, making a raise -EV.

So in general, we're in good enough shape to raise here with one caveat... our relative position is terrible.

The last thing we want is for the button to 3-bet and blast away the field. Given that, I think it's probably in our best interest to call rather than raise, but the equity is almost certainly there for raising.

Jeff

They probably would give your checkraise a lot more respect than his continuation bet. And bad players do strange things. Their biggest mistake is often not giving consideration to the size of the pot. That can work both ways.

But it's probably close enough to 'never' to not give it consideration. The real issue is that they wont always be getting 40:1.

You're roughly 5:1 to make your draw. Which means you need only 5 callers to make this for value. (this assumes that your bd draw is of roughly equivalent value to the redraws others will have against you, plus the possibility of drawing to a chop)

But the button will occasionally be 3betting. I dont know why you would assume that you only get 3bet when he has a set or better just because of a read of 'loose'. If he's aggressive enough to make a continuation bet with less than top pair into a field of 8, he's probably going to 3bet quite liberally.

Of the 8 remaining in the hand you're definitely losing a caller or two (if not more) if you raise and get 3bet, and all that fold for 2 are drawing dead to us when we make our draw.



You need to estimate how often you think you're getting 3bet, and how many folds that 3bet will cause.

I think I made the same mistake Screech did...

Foolishly I totally forgot that we've got 4 outs twice. even though our equity plummets on almost every turn, we're still remiss NOT raising here.

Sometimes, I am the stupidest human on the planet