you heard it here first suckas. TIME TO BET THE FARM!!! nasdaq up to 2800 from it's current 2300 by july & s&p up to 1600 from it's current 1285. should've posted this last week when we reached the breakthrough supprt levels. if you have any balls pick up a few futures contracts leveraged 4-1....take it to the house!! this info will cost you 30% of profits and a minimum investment of 250k in a few years so take it while it's free!!

appearantly people don't like free money :shock:

Hope your not going to be a broker or advisor because it is illegal to share in the gain or loss of a clients portflio Smile

not a client portfolio chief, just my own analysis :-) brokers are salesman..........i'm gonna be a hedgefund manager....BIG DIFFERENCE

Hey Pay for USC, I'm at USC right now.

True it is a big difference, but how will anyone know to invest in your fund if there isnt anyone to sale it? 8)

WOOHOO!!! go down to frat row...grab some Chano's tacos and take them to the sorority sluts





















unfortunately, i'm at work :cry:

hedgefunds aren't allowed to advertise.....it's illegal :-)




word of mouth.........if you're good they will find you.

this is going on way longer then i intended so last question. How will anyone know about you until you have money to make money with, to generate word of mouth? and having someone sale your fund to an individuall investor isnt advertising.

if you have the skills you start out working for someone else as a clerk just stamping trades. eventually they teach you the ropes and if you're good you will make them profits. they will tell there chronies and if you are good you WILL get business when it's time to go on your own. if you are a real trader, 100-200% annual return is NOTHING. brokers sell you the garbage & real traders make you money. that's why it's not commercial & the fees are so expensive.

ouch since im a broker that last one hurt. :cry:

it's okay...you make your money...the poor chap that you sold the dog to pays your lifestyle(who else is gonna pay for the bonuses & vacations :wink: )

just like you can get 100-200% returns every year, I never recommend a dog only winners :shock:

good deal...make that $$$$$$$

I'll take advice,
What do I need to do first?

the easiest way is to buy tracking indexes...QQQQ (nasdaq) or SPQ (s&p 500 index). for example if you have 25k avail you can buy 50k worth of the above on margin. they charge you interest on the extra loan, but don't worry....the picks will outperform the interest for a bigger profit. your broker will explain in detail.........FUTURES are a little too complex to explain...THESE PICKS ARE A LOCK!!!!

Why has my guy not mentioned this?
But I understand the potential earnings you have outlined.

Thank you, I will look into this.

brokers make their money from picks that THEIR OWN BROKERAGE UNDERWRITES for the most part. not saying your guy is stiffing you, but they sell you a few winners and a few losers. the thing is they make their money off of the commisions. it's EXACTLY like the rake in poker. you break even and they profit. it's just the way the game is played. :wink:

You mean SPY ...

Obviously I don't know you, but good luck with this. Seriously. I set up a hedge fund a little over a year ago and was going to be a principle trader for it until I had a falling out with the guy who was going to be my partner. No complaints, that's bid-niss ...

Anyway, high pressure but high reward potential. Good luck with it.

I understand,
Thanks.

do you still trade for yourself? thanks. great signature.

I do, but I've scaled back a lot over the past year or so. I used to daytrade the S&P futures, and then moved to mostly trading stocks. Between the hedge fund opportunity falling through and my getting married a few months ago, my activity level dropped WAY off last year.

Actually having a hard time getting back in the swing of things. Maybe I'm getting old. Maybe I play too much poker. Who knows ...

what's the minimum that I could invest ?

In a hedge fund? Or on your own in the stock market?

What's your reasoning for the market rallying 20% in 6 months?

ahhh .... i love hot stock tips from off topic

The Stock Market if for "nancy-boys"

technical breakthrough

7 card stud is for suckers

































































































(sw)

Yea I saw the techical breakthrough on the chart, but do you look at any macro economic trends? Unemployment is already very low and probably not going much lower. Interest rates look to be going up. Oil and Energy prices arent coming down significantly anytime soon. The Housing market appears to be cooling off. And I've heard a lot of stories about lenders tighting up their standards.

Do any of these things worry you?

no....the market prices tell you the true story. if the above were still a concern, we wouldn't have broken resistance. lots of support at the old resistance as well. the market marches forward. rack up the cash. bling bling

You play poker, want to be a hedge fund manager, AND you're a market technician?? Are ... are you ... are you my BROTHER???

Unemployment doesn't need to continue to decline, it just needs to remain low, which it is.

The Fed signaled last week that they were probably done raising rates.

The economy has remained strong in spite of high energy prices, a very strong sign. Energy prices can remain where they are right now without hurting the economy, and if they started to decline at all ... ?

Housing market trends can be very regional. In some places, like NY, FL, and CA (3 of the 4 most populous states in the nation) the real estate market is still scalding hot.

The markets lead more often than not. If this breakout gains any traction, there's room to run. Not a prediction, just an if/then observation.

You're right the stock market is a leading indicator which is part of my point. How much better can the economy get from here to produce enough to justify higher market returns. I dont think things will get a whole lot better (although I dont things will be much worse either).

Hoping that unemployment and interest rates stay flat isnt exactly a boom for the finacial markets. If you look closely, the market turned around (in Dec 2006) about 6 months before unemployment started to decline (thats how the market is a leading indicator as it knew companies would ramp up production). And during that whole time interest rates were at historical lows.

And the reason the market surged inspite of rising energy (and other commidity) costs was because of things like lowering unemployment and low interest rates. More importantly there were other factors that contibuted heavily. A record housing boom and, even more importantly, lower lending standards to where almost anyone (individual or corporate) could get a loan/credit.

The problem with higher future market returns is all of the factors that helped the market make this rally seem to be fading. Unemploymeny and interest rates dont seem to be going lower and the housing boom is coming to a close (eventhough is probobly wont go down). More concerning than the fed lowering rates is that the fed recently stated it was troubled by the low lending standards (and thats not good).

And all of this is still anchored by rising commodity prices (including energy) which doesnt seem to be reversing soon. And btw, a lot of the rising commodity arent reflected in the core CPI stats (I dont beleive those low inflation numbers at all).

IMO, the market will be down this year. I'm not predicting the end of the world but I dont think a slight decline (5-10%) is unreasonable.

No, that's not unreasonable. But neither would a move higher. A longer term view shows that the market (S&P and Dow, specifically) have actually been historically quiet and tightly traded the last two years. There's a lot of pent up energy in the system that could lead to a big move in either direction.



I read an interesting article recently regarding an apparent decision by China to slow their massive consumption of raw materials. If this happens it would mean a world-wide decrease in commodity prices and (likely) increased money flow to equities.

In the end I think it's usually better not to try too hard to figure out the "whys" and just keep an eye on the "whats". We'll know a lot more in the coming months.

[quote="GamblinLeaf"][quote=princeof56k]
IMO, the market will be down this year. I'm not predicting the end of the world but I dont think a slight decline (5-10%) is unreasonable.[/quote]

No, that's not unreasonable. But neither would a move higher. A longer term view shows that the market (S&P and Dow, specifically) have actually been historically quiet and tightly traded the last two years. There's a lot of pent up energy in the system that could lead to a big move in either direction.

[quote=princeof56k]
And all of this is still anchored by rising commodity prices (including energy) which doesnt seem to be reversing soon. And btw, a lot of the rising commodity arent reflected in the core CPI stats (I dont beleive those low inflation numbers at all).[/quote]

I read an interesting article recently regarding an apparent decision by China to slow their massive consumption of raw materials. If this happens it would mean a world-wide decrease in commodity prices and (likely) increased money flow to equities.

In the end I think it's usually better not to try too hard to figure out the "whys" and just keep an eye on the "whats". We'll know a lot more in the coming months.[/quote]

I'm slightly confused by this statement. I guess by "whats" you mean the charts (technical analysis). Well "whats" are also macro economic factors (fundamental analysis) which is what I was trying to look at. You cant ingore those factors "just because the market has been ralying for X amount of months."

After all, you're making a wager on the future. I think you need have a pretty good idea of "why."

Who ever wrote that article, I want to know what he's smoking. I need to try some of that stuff.

Dont expect China to take one for the team (and I'm not even sure they could if hey wanted to). They are moving full steam ahead. And their need for raw materials is directly tied to their manufacturing power. They're demand (inside China) and our demand (for their products) is driving their raw materials requests. How do they plan to stop that?

We can agree to disagree on this, not a big deal. This is the crux of the "great debate" between fundamental and technical analysis. One school of thought feels like investing without knowing "why" the market is going up is dangerous. The other school of thought doesn't care why the market is going up ... if it's going up, be long. If it's not going up, don't be long.

The guy was John Mauldin, a pretty solid analyst. He wasn't making any sweeping predictions but he did say that China has already begun to slow their lending to new companies since they've begun to discover the dark side of over expansion (central banks lend liberally to spur new growth which in turn puts price pressures on existing companies in the same market, which lowers prices, which slows growth). Mauldin said that if this policy continues, real growth in China will fall off dramatically in the next 12-18 months which would, in turn, pressure global commodity prices.

I have no first hand way of knowing whether this is really happening, but if it does, it'll make things very interesting.

No problem with disagreeing. I always like trying to figure out whats gonna happen next in the market.

I still doubt China signifacntly slowing down voluntarily (and you still have India out there). The public there is still demanding more things (everything from energy to commercial products). I went on a trip there last year, and besides the shear number of people there, I was shocked about how it seemed like capitalism was on steroids. Shops are packed to the brim and new businesses are opening everywhere. They seem to understand competition and pricing.

I much more fearful of a far more horriffic situation slowing China down. The health and environmental standards over there are awful. If they dont have a major disease outbreak (I'm talking about millions dead) in the next 25 years I'll be shocked.

That's very interesting. I've always wanted to visit as my mom is chinese, but haven't had the chance yet.

From what I understand, basic health standards on the agricultural side of the economy are lacking. That's one of the reasons why the various strains of bird flu always seem to start there.

I got tons of stories about my trip to China. It was eye opening, and I had a great time.

About environmental conditions. The air polution there is unbelievable. And I saw major rivers that actually had damms of trash in them (and industry dump chemicals into the water too). It's not uncommon to see people just throw trash in the river. And then to see people fishing in that same river while wading through the trash was unbelievable. You cant eat anything unless its been peeled, boiled, cooked or canned. And you only drink bottled drinks or hot tea. Smoking is allowed anywhere and people spit just about anywhere (this really didnt bother me much). All of that is combined with a major overcrowding problem.

BTW if you ever go to China, any public restroom (especially train and bus stations) will have you longing for one of those blue portable restrooms we have here. If you have to go, you have to go, but find a department store if possible. Those restrooms are immaculate. And bring your own toilet paper or you'll have to buy the cheap stuff the sell in the restroom.