Bodog 1/2 NLHE (9-handed)

Cobalt $183
MP2 $311

Cobalt is SB w/ A 9 . MP2 is competent, slightly LAG.

Pre-flop:
2 folds, MP1 calls, BB checks

Flop ($10): J T A (5 players)
Cobalt bets $7

Turn ($24): 8 (2 players)
Cobalt bets $16

River ($56): 4 (2 players)
Cobalt checks...


Anybody taking a different line? Try to check-raise the flop?

I think it is fair to say that I woulda played it real similar... Only quibble maybe that the check on the river may induce a big bet and you would be put to a decision...

Maybe a block type bet on 5th street? It takes biggers balls to bluff with a raise than with a bet but it depends on your read of the player as to whether this maybe necessary.

I think it is fair to say that I woulda played it real similar... Only quibble maybe that the check on the river may induce a big bet and you would be put to a decision...

Maybe a block type bet on 5th street? It takes biggers balls to bluff with a raise than with a bet but it depends on your read of the player as to whether this maybe necessary.

nah, i like betting out for deception purposes. looks like your trying to protect your weak ace from a flush draw. Then when the flush card hits, i check it to him and let him make a move for the pot

you proably have the best hand right now anyway, and you have a draw to the nut flush. After the turn you picked up an open-end straight draw. thats one strong hand

I like betting pot on the turn

1/2 pot the river to try to control the pot. If he comes over the top, he hit his second pair. i think checking to him, he checks some times, but pots the river some times as well.

on the river if you are willing to pot it, it will most likely be called by a better hand if u check and he pots it and u call its the same situation except for the fact that he might make a move for the pot there.

lets say its a 50/50 he has a better or worse hand then u.


option 1 You pot it

so case 1 he has the worst hand (50%)

you pot it probably a 80% chance of him folding a worse hand ( +$0)

10% chance he comes over the top on a huge bluff (you fold $-56) -5.6

10% chance he calls with a worse hand ($+56) +5.6

case 2 he has beter hand (50%)

70% chance of him calling the best hand ($-56) $-39.2

30% chance of him coming over the top ($-56 you fold) $-17.7

total profit = -28 dollars


option 2 You check

case 1 he has the worse hand

30% chance he pots it trying to steal ($+56 you call)

10% chance he goes all in to put maximum pressure (fold $-0)

60% chance he just checks ($+0)

case 2 he has the best hand

80% chance he pots it or something close to it ($-56)

10% he under bets it (you call $-30)

10% chance he goes all in (you fold $-0)

$total profit= -12.9

i didnt take into account of the pot but u fold about the same amount in both options taken and might even out i dont want to calculate it more

but it seems check calling is the best situation here.

now obviously alot of other game theory stuff happens here like sometimes you have to bet your hand here so that u can bluff on the river else no one believes you but you have to check call sometimes so that they dont try to bluff you when you check. you have to value bet sometimes to slow people down but also value bet a strong hand so they dont realise this pattern and fear and come over the top. and all that stuff.

but i think the obviouse play is that if u were willing to pot it here u should check call.

the block bet is often times a tell that you are scared and some people have the balls to just send it, tough but smart players. so obviously you have to value be the river sometimes with Huge hands but then also you want to punish people for the most you can on the river so sometimes you have to pot it for maximum punishment with ur strong hands but u have to do it with weak hands also so that those will get called.

Poker seems like a huge balance of value betting(portion of the pot), bluffing(potting or portion of the pot), block betting(portion of the pot), punish betting(pot).

the pot on the river with big hands is so you cal bluff
sometimes with max pressure

underbetting the pot is so you can block bet later, value bet and get a call with worse hand

im rambling but i guess you should figure out what you have done in the past the type of game you are playing and decide what you want the players to see so you can set it up later.

neways I talk too much and im sure people dissagree but its me kinda just speaking my mind

thx

E.

I think check/calling is best on this river. Based on the fact that he's a competent player, the chance of him calling with a worse hand is extremely low. If he has a worse hand, he's capable of bluffing at it.

Fortunately for me, he decided to check behind me with JTo for two pair. I thought it was pretty interesting how the percentages were almost exactly 50/50 on both the flop and the turn. That's a rather rare situation.

Wow, I can't believe he wasn't firing on that flop.
I still like leading the 1/2 the pot. It keeps the river bet smaller and I think you get a call here more than not unless he was drawing. From the way he played the hand, i would have thought you would have been ahead unless he river something.

Scott, what kind of hand do you think he's got that we're ahead of on the river? It'd have to be a worse ace, but we've got a fairly sucky one. KJ/QJ is a tiny possibility, but he's unlikely to call a bet. Let me add that this player respects my play.

Basically any type of hand that calls the turn. A weak Ace, a jack that doesn't belive you. If kj calls the turn, he calls 1/2 pot river. If you're read was that he respected your play, then a check/fold is more appropriate since he's not calling your turn with anything that you beat no? My argument is simply that if you're willing to check/call, that leading may make this a cheaper pot for you on the river.

Without reading replies..

I like putting a pot sized-bet out on the river, folding to a push. Saves you from making any decisions for your entire stack--you've shown strength the entire way, I wouldn't stop now.

But it looks fine, really. No issues except the minor one with the river check.

:? Y'all's advice on this river is really boggling me.

I've invested $25 out of my $183. How am I making a decision about my stack on this river? I'm checking to induce a bluff or a value bet out of my opponent. My plan is to call up to $30 more on this river. More than that, and I have a tougher decision...but probably lean towards the fold. Heck, if my opponent has a better (but non-nuttish) hand, he might even check after me...which is what he did.

I'm all for value-betting and not letting people off the hook, but I'm telling you guys...there's absolutely nothing that calls a reasonable bet (1/2 the pot or more) on this river that I'm beating. This isn't an opponent who calls down with any ragged ace or crap jack. He's solid and knows that I'm solid. I also don't particularly like the prospect of getting bluff-raised, assuming my opponent is capable of that.

usc's analysis is pretty thorough in supporting my reasoning.

I for one love the river check/call as well.

This is the trixy stuff good players have to incorporate, especially OOP on the river in marginal situations.

My question is to you, why is he calling you down here (pre river) and not putting pressure on? Is he calling down with a draw? From your opinion of him, this wouldn't be the case. What exactly is he going to bet on this river? I think it's strange he's called you down with 2 pair here. But I can't quite understand your logic on what is bluffing here that you have beat. You don't think he's drawing and you think his image of you is strong enough that he would fold Ax and any jack. Therefore, you should check with intention of fold the river. maybe if i understood a hand that calls the turn that you're beating here, that would help.

When did I say he wasn't drawing? He could have a worse flush draw, QJ, KJ, QT, etc. I don't think he's calling with those on the end, but he might bet them. He could put me on a draw and be hoping to outplay me.

I understand your check/fold reasoning. I think that's a much better line than betting the river. I'm all for blocking bets when the situation warrants it. I don't think this is one of those situations though.

What I think this is coming down to is that you've painted a picture of the villain that is inconsistent with his play here regardless of his holding. You said he's solid, but he's shown himself to be completely passive w/ position here. I think the player you describe raises here with a draw on the flop, and w/ 2 pair. (not the case usually?)

Against the type of player you describe, You're beat here and you should check/fold the flop. Against your average player I still like my leading bet because people call me down with second pair not believing me often enough. I don't like leading here against the described villain, but I really dislike check/calling. You need to put him on a draw for this (which you don't think he has here). Therefore, you're calling money off here, knowing you have a loser, and you haven't even attempted to try to control the amount your willing to lose in order to keep him honest.

I'm controlling the amount I'm willing to lose by setting an amount that I'm willing to call. That amount is very close to the amount that I'd make as a blocker bet, except that the blocker bet discourages bluffs. I do think he could be on a draw here. In fact, by the way he was calling down, that's what I originally assumed that he had. Either a draw or a monster.

I don't think he likes the board with bottom two. I do think that he's too passive at times. I'd raise in his shoes, but he's taken the route of calling me down. Perhaps he's hoping that I bluff off my money, assuming he's ahead. He knows that I'm capable of bluffing, because I've done it to him before.

Maybe last thing I'll say about this. The idea of controlling the amount of the river is what i use a blocking bet for. in your case, your willing to call about a pot size and overpot size bet on the river. However, i get the sense you feel like you're beat here more times than not, but you still want to make sure that the villain isn't going to take you off the hand with a bluff on the river. The way i use a block bet, is to bet less than what I think a bluff would be. Therefore, if he reraises me, I'm pretty sure he's got me beat. and if he calls me, I've gotten to show down cheaper than if i called a river bluff. that's why i would think a lead/fold would be better than a check/call.

Given your extra input into this hand. My take is that check/fold > lead/fold > check/call.

He checked behind with two pair? LOL!

Scott, I value your input on this hand, even though we still seem to disagree. I think we've gotten a lot of good discussion. I'll try to keep a look out for a place where I feel a blocker bet is more appropriate. I don't think I'm using them as often as I once was, as I'm often trying to induce/snap off bluffs these days.

I only read about 2/3 of the posts in this thread, so I apologize in advance if I repeat anything.

I was thinking that, on a draw heavy board like this, that if you you were up against top pair, no matter what his kicker is, he's going to raise you to find out where he stands, unless he typically plays a hand like a call station.

So, assuming he's a solid player, what does he call you down with here? My only guess is that he's on a flush draw, or he's open ended. Only about 20% of the time am I putting someone on bottom-two, because even then, I'm raising somewhere to see where I am at.

Sorry never caught this post.

Fair enough. I think it's very strange how this player took this hand.

Those two quotes... that was my misread, I thought the pot was around 30 there. Think i was looking at the turn amount.