UTG: 63/6/0.6 16 hands
BB: 69/0/0.31 16 hands

loose game so far

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Actuary is Button with A:spade:, A:club:. MP1 posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 6:heart:, 9:club:, T:club: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3:club: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets


this reminds me a little of joballs "Is this standard" post with AK, only different.

I had no specific read on villans

Why is he betting into me ?

Weird. I'd just call.

His AF is only .6, which is weird. I still raise with the Ac in my hand. He's probably got something stupid like KcTx, or maybe something even stupider like just a ten.

More likely, he's got JJ or QQ. Maybe AK with the Kc.


Wang

What are you thinking about the bb in this hand? He check/cold-called the flop, which could definitely be some type of draw or a slowplayed set. Are you worried about him having the flush? Is part of the reason for raising to price out some of his weaker draws? Do you want to pull him into the hand at all?

I think the bb is an interesting factor in this hand, just curious what your thoughts on him are.

Im not worried about him having anything. He's a loose-passive calling station. he could have the flush or a set, but (shrug) whatever. He sucks. He just as likely has a hand like TJ.

Say he has TxJc. He's drawing to 5 outs against us. In a pot this size (he'll be getting better than 10-1 if Actuary just calls the UTG bet on the turn), more than enough to call with 5 outs here. We can't take the chance of letting him CORRECTLY come along and win the pot on the river. If we don't raise and he hits a 5 outer, he's not the fish; we are.

Besides we have an overpair with the nut flush draw. EVEN IF we're behind a hand like 9T, we've got a whopping 17 outs to improve, so the raise doesn't cost us that much.

Wang

Yeah I think a raise is better now.

I guess it just seems like when I see this bet it's from a weak player who usually seems to have the flush already. I'm getting paranoid :?

There's an easy way to cure paranoia... just raise ALL the time. You can usually jot a few numbers on a piece of paper afterwards and manufacture a profitable raise somehow.

Trust me. It works.

Wait, don't trust me. I'm not within miles of sober.

Wang

It would be nice to have a few more hands to solidify the read but gotta work with what we got.

The only hands a 6% raiser is going to have that is beating you here is KQc or TT.

Fish like to be tricky and would tend to c/r with those.

Raise it up, you've got outs to the nuts to back up the 'fogginess'

Not enough hands to put too much faith in the reads, other than that you can be pretty sure they're both loose players.

It looks to me there's a good chance UTG has either KcQc, KcJc, TT, or 99. I'd raise, but if UTG calls, I'd take a free showdown UI. If either opponent 3-bets, I think you can safely lay it down on the river UI (although I'd probably make the crying call if it were heads-up at that point).

If you had the Ad instead of the Ac in your hand, I'd just look to call one bet each on the turn and river, since the likelihood of UTG having a made flush would be greatly increased. (If you had a more complete read (more hands, at least) that UTG was passive, I might just fold the turn without the Ac.)

I would raise there, call a 3-bet, and probably c/c river UI.

Zach

http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forums/v...4467&highlight=

After vehemently advising a raise in the above hand...
I just called :oops:

perhaps it's easier to bet someone elses money!
But, maybe I can rationalize a little here.

One overiding rule, right or wrong, that guides my decison to raise in these situaions:

The more likely I am to be behind the bettor and ahead of those left to act, and the smaller the pot, the less likley I am too raise.

Just comparing the two hands:

1. pot smaller here
2. two left to act there, 1 here
3. bettor here lead two streets and raised preflop
4. no sign other player has a hand here (yet at least)
5. I have the better draw here, thus being out drawn is less of a concern
6. I'll have tremendous visibility if a comes and be able to raise utg's lead. Raising now might get me a Free SD opportunity when I'd rather have BB and MP beting/calling the river.

99 or TT defintely seem like strong possibilities based on preflop and his stop and go here with the 3 flush board.
Getting 3-bet and folding River UI w/o better reads would suck, when I can see SD for the same price.

Not sure these excuses warrant a call; but that's how I see the two hands differently

Against a couple of 65%ish players, I raise that turn every time. If 3-bet, I call and start shouting "club! club!" like some wannabe WPT pro wearing an upside down ball cap and wraparound shades.

Even though the sample is small, 0.6 strikes me as a moderately aggressive stat for a 63% player. He could be double-donking a T with a flush draw.

I pretty much ignored the stats. To few hands
BB's call of 2 raises and the flop call did support his fishy stats, though. (or TT)

i think this is an easy raise.

you are likely still ahead but if not you have 9 outs to the nut flush.

Rah-Rah-Raise.

It's sucks calling here with the best hand and being outdrawn by BB.

I vaguely remember attempting to convey this point last night at 3AM (EST), while leaving a girl hanging in my bedroom for 20 minutes, smashed off my pretty ass.

You must have a pretty ass for her to wait in your room for 20 minutes while you stumbled to the computer to talk poker.

yeah...
I was the one along with CM touting the turn raise in that other hand while some lady was shimmeying up Ice's wang.

So am I just a sissy with my own money?

I see the hands differntly, but not enough to make this just a call, huh?

How likley do I need to be behind UTG before calling is best?

If I'm trailing UTG, it would be an extreme example that has me beating UTG on the river but losing to BB.
I 3-bet preflop, riased flop and UTG still bets into me.

lets fight some more!

No.

It's time for self-discovery.

Put UTG on a range with all that weighted shit based on his stats.

Determine your equity vs his range. Estimate your total equity.

How high does it have to be here for you to raise?

If his stats mean anything, he quite possibly could be an idiot who pumps the pot with TPGK. That, and the 7 out redraw versus the made flush/10 outs versus the set/16 outs versus 2 pair keep me in the comfort zone with the raise. I certainly don't cap the turn if 3-bet.

you all raising here if BB folded already?

Screech... I play be feel brother.

Yeah you were pretty adamant about that hand last night.
Ironic that you treat this one drastically differently.

I consider the situations close enough to warrant the same decision.
So my thoughts on the hand remain the same:









--cm

I'm not scared of the 3.
I'm scared of the 9 and 10.
And maybe BB already having a slow played straight/set.

the hands are very simlar, I was only pointing out what I thought made this hand closer.

basically, I don't see the relative threat of being outdrawn vs my current standing the same way I saw it there. If I'm behind UTG, it's rarely two pair. So I'm drawing to less than 11 outs. Rarely, do I out draw UTG, yet lose to BB (if that's even possible)

When UTG is overplaying JT and BB has a gutshot, raising makes great sense. When BB has AJ and UTG has 99, not so much.

I think the other hand likley had more chances for villan to be ahead and outdrawn than we have here.

Too much is being put on UTG's stats.

I'm not against a rais, just need more help and clarity that we are all on the same page.

The thing is, you have no evidence that either player is any good. If you have any reason to believe that their stats are misleading (besides the low sample of hands), then going for the overcall might be better. Maybe you saw UTG make an intelligent play on some previous hand, I dunno. Maybe he showed down a lot of good starting hands among those 10 he played. But without evidence to the contrary, I assume that people who've played 10 of 16 hands aren't that great.

The only hands you likely need to fear from UTG are TT and 99, but you do have 10 outs against those. He could also have AT, AQ, JJ, 88 or 77, depending on his level of suckiness. BB could have anything that slightly hit the flop, including the frush draw. His range is huge, though, if he sucks as much as your limited sample indicates. I raise against players I perceive to be bad when I have a good hand and a strong draw. Sometimes, I'll get huckled. That's life.

Oh, I almost forgot: You'll probably get little action on the river if the 4-flush completes.

River: Q

UTG c/c with 44, no club.
BB folded.

you never know!

Aggression slows me down a lot.

Me too. I've gotta work on that. Bonus whoring at 2/4 on some of the tighter sites is helping me out with that, a little.

44! Classic showdown hand. You must've been bluffing, after all.