PokerStars Game #3518201114: Tournament #17356498, Hold'em No Limit - Match
Round II, Level I (10/20) - 2006/01/03 - 01:09:18 (ET)
Table '17356498 9' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: ScubaPkr (1480 in chips)
Seat 2: SBsupplies (1880 in chips)
Seat 3: XANMAN (1480 in chips)
Seat 4: louisxiii99 (1580 in chips)
Seat 5: manuchka (1840 in chips)
Seat 6: BillyBizzle (1110 in chips)
Seat 7: The Piper (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: UMYAYAROB (1070 in chips)
Seat 9: hoser14 (1590 in chips)
hoser14: posts small blind 10
ScubaPkr: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BillyBizzle [9d 9c]
SBsupplies: calls 20
XANMAN: folds
louisxiii99: calls 20
manuchka: folds
BillyBizzle: raises 80 to 100
The Piper: folds
UMYAYAROB: folds
hoser14: folds
ScubaPkr: folds
SBsupplies: calls 80
louisxiii99: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Ks 6c 7c]
SBsupplies: checks
louisxiii99: checks
BillyBizzle: bets 200
SBsupplies: folds
louisxiii99: raises 200 to 400
BillyBizzle: calls 200

This was early (probably 10 hands into) the second round of a 50+5 DS on Stars. The turn and/or river played themselves this hand, so my question is whether my flop play is correct, and if so, why did I do it?

Reasoning will be posted later.

Louis the 13th limps and then calls. I think he has a suited connector or maybe a small pair and felt like the odds were good for him when you already got one caller.

On the flop, he thinks you could have AQ or AJ and are making a continuation bet. But he only raises you the minimum, so if he's worried about a flush draw, he's not protecting against it. And if he has some sort of marginal hand, he's not getting you to fold with it. Maybe he's got the flush draw, JT or QJ. Or maybe he's got something like suited KT or KJ (but not in clubs) and thinks he's best, but isn't sure, so he'll fold if you re-raise and re-assess if you call.

Whenever I see the minimum raise, it usually indicates a very marginal hand, but sometimes a monster. There's really no monster hand that he could have here that I think he would play in this manner since we know he can't have 89c and 45c seems too weak to call pre-flop. If he flopped a set, he would raise more because of the flush draw.

Anyway, I would've put him on a flush draw, but not the nut flush or Ace high flush draw. But then I wouldn't know why you wouldn't re-raise there and I'm interested in hearing your reasoning...

Think about pot odds here, and I think you will answer your own question. :wink:

I guess I should've paid more attention to stack sizes.

If he's got the flush draw, you're giving him the correct odds to draw for all of your money. But if the turn misses him, he won't have the correct odds to draw and if it hits him, you can still get away from it.

Yes? No?

Such a smart boy. *tear*

Now, my question is...why did you discount the nut flush draw? This was actually the exact hand I put him on-he knows his ace high is no good and wants 2 cards, not one. If he flat calls the flop, and checks the turn, he knows I am betting, so he figures the min-CR will get him both cards for free.

Are there any other hands out there I need to account for?

I think he raises with a big suited Ace pre-flop before it gets to you and I think calling with two players in a raised pot with a small Ace is a bad play. So what kind of Ace do you put him on?

A "I'm a bad player" ace. I see weak suited aces played like this early in 50 sit-n-go's occasionally, so ya never know.

Results: He had Kc 10c, so I was right on the flush draw. I underestimated what a donk he was, calling K10c OOP against an UTG limper and a mid position raiser. I spiked the 9 on the turn, he jammed and rivered a club.

I really was surpised to see this draw, is it is a hand I want to semi-bluff with and take down a pot as quickly as possible. At worst, he has to think he has 12 outs, and thus I would have raised harder on the flop (probably to 600). I really expected the flush draw part, and was going to jam any non ace, non club turn, or fold if either of those hit.

KT, huh?

So, level 3 thinking, what do you think your opponent puts you on? Is he just sweetening the pot with top pair and a flush draw?

Well...in his mind, once I only called the flop bet, and didn't jam, he knew he was ahead. If he limits me to AQ+, 88+, then he is so ridiculously far ahead of the possible hands I could have here, that he would be willing to go all in on the flop. If I have one of the 3 hands that beat him (AA KK or AK) I would most certainly jam the flop to try to protect, and he can call. Once I flat-call the flop, he knew he was ahead and could jam the turn at will, regardless of whether his hand improved or not.

My problem on the flop here was the fact that I had the right read...and the wrong read. I just didn't see K10c coming out of left field at me, as it would be a hand I would have played harder over the continuation bet. I underestimated his ability to recognize the strength of his hand versus the vulnerability of mine.