I bubbled in 3 tourneys this weekend, including going out 379 in the Stars 500k when 378 was the money. I reviewed HH's afterward and I think I'm okay with how I played around the bubble in all 3 tourneys, but I want to check up. This is the one I'm really kinda blah about.

I'm at work, played this from home, so I don't have the HH, but I remember it well.

Poker Stars $50+5 NLH MTT
Blinds 200/400
Average stack: 8k-ish
My stack: 12k-ish
Maybe 20 people from the money.

Preflop:
I'm in late MP with Q J . One limper in front of me, I call, folds around to the button who is the chipleader @ about 45k (important to note he was an uber donk who accumulated his chips by calling all-ins preflop and sucking out with Ax hands against QQ and KK). He raises it up to 1600. He had been making this type of play constantly, trying to take pots down preflop. Blinds and EP limper fold, I call because his range is enormous, I can outplay him and I'm closing the action.

Pot: 4200
Flop:
8 5 5

I check, villain bets 2200, I jam, making it 9k or so for him to call.

Your thoughts, please.

One question for you here, and then I will give my response-

Would he fold ace-high to a reraise like this?

I'm not callin PF.

I'm raising (we're not short, not really out of position).

Dump it or bump it.

Don't like flat call.

I'm doing my damndest to keep control of the hand if i'm playing it.

This is always a good spot of try to accumulate chips.

I don't care if the button is blind and can't even see his cards i'm not trying to mix it up with him right now.

Hope this helps.


Good Luck

I am curious as to why you would raise here PF against a total donk who would call with any face card or ace the way it sounds. Not saying its bad or good but this donk is most likely calling any rais we can offer. And yes we are out of position in refernce to the raiser and any decent sized raise pretty much commits half of our stack.

I don't like the check-raise jam on the flop. That's too easy to spot because I find it to be one of the more common semi-bluffs in online tournament HE.

I would rather call here, because as you said he is an A-x suckout donk (I got busted by one of those this weekend in a 8K guaruntee on FT - hate those bloody bastards!), so if he has something like A8 or a pair of 9's/10's, you are a nice favorite and have lots of outs that will not only give you the best hand, but a Q or J will also give the donk a card to bluff at where you can snap him off and take his chips (although if a diamond comes on the turn, you should bet about 3/4ths the pot in case he has the naked Ad).

Plus, if you happen to miss the turn, you just check-called the flop, giving you bluffing leverage (check-call on flop, bet the pot on the turn, first to act bluff) because you are in prime bluffing position (Gus Hansen says acting first is better in bluffing sometimes because it's easier to look like your protecting a made hand that's vulnerable) and you can represent the 5's or even an 8 if he has something like AK and misses the turn.

If he happens to call your turn bet, then you have outs to the river, and that's all you can ask for. Granted you are at the mercy of the cards at this point, but if he calls your turn bet - THEN the alarm bells should be going off in your head that you could be up against a big hand (either A5, a big pocket pair, or pocket 8's).

why are you weakly playing jq suited near the bubble?

why are you weakly playing jq suited near the bubble?

1.) it's not a great hand, but a hand that likes to see cheap flops
2.) i'm always wary of EP limpers
3.) i play well post-flop
4.) my opponents did not

Still waiting on an answer to my first question :-)

Let's just say that was the perfect question to ask, and you asked it right away. I wanted to wait a little to see if there would be some discussion.

He had surrendered a couple pots postflop to aggression, so I thought I had a good amount of fold equity. Also contributing to this was the idea that it was very likely the flop missed him, and I knew he didn't have to be strong to be involved in the pot. I have 15 outs twice against most pairs, and I'm only drawing slim against 88, 55 or a better flush draw. I'm ahead 55/45 against AK.

Villain used up his entire time bank, and I thought there was absolutely no way he was calling. He called at the last second with the A 4 and I failed to improve. I typed into the chat window, "Weird call," and banged my head against the wall 37 times.

Here's the real dilemma. I don't really like the way I played it preflop, but I'm not that concerned about that. My question is the flop play. Should I have just done a stop and go, either on the flop or on the turn? I can't fold this on the flop, right?

I think the play worked great as it so happened, but what happens when he bets 3.5k or 4K? Now he is tied into the pot. In that case i like the SnG better. overs and a flush draw is too good to let go against a poor player IMO. Ram the turn regardless (even if you hit he might still call).

Ditto. Pound the turn. I don't like the call preflop either...QJ suited is a decent hand that likes cheap flops, I hear you there, but you also can't play a NL ring game strategy in a NL tourney this deep as the blinds go up. You got to add value to your position also when you consider your plays.

Having said that ram the pot on the flop. You'll never make it far without gambling in this game, and gambling with two over cards and the four flush is a gamble you can justify. Now, that is a horrible flop for you if the proclaimed donk is freerolling at this point with A5, A8, Ax suited, or 88/55? But you got the best of this one. Can't give that much credit to any player even if he does seem to be on the mother of all runs.

All good reasons, but near the bubble with an average/above average stack, if youre going to play I think it should always be a raise. There is too much FE to pass up, and you dont really want to get involved in hands that can cost a lot of money in draws. I would pass up suited connectors lower than QJ, but there is enough high card strength here that I think its worth a raise. The hand probably plays out quite differently if you do.

Once you get to the flop in your situation I think you analyzed it correctly, as long as you realized you are only 55/45 against any A, not just AK. That makes any A a no-brainer call for him, not a "wierd call" getting 2:1 on his money, plus the fact that he is chipleader, will still have a big stack if he loses this, got there making precisely these kinds of plays, and its pretty clear you are on the flush draw. The only other hand he really has to worry about is trip 5s, highly unlikely.

So knowing that he is very likely calling, can you push on value alone? If you push your average result is $9900. If you fold you retain the 11,200 you have, so with dubious fold equity a push here is clearly wrong.

What about a call of the 2200? The pot is then 8,800. If 9 of your outs hit, the hand is probably over. So that gives you 20% of the 8800...$2200, plus the 9k you had behind...voila you are breakeven with just your turn card flush equity(which should be obvious, since you are getting 3 to 1 on your call). For the 6 outs to a pair, you pick up a minimum of $700 equity, because you are likely to be able to value bet those for at least a couple of thousand and you are a huge favorite. Call the flop.

Now you miss the turn, 8800 on the pot 9,000 behind. I dont know what the turn card was but it probably wasnt very scary, though any card could hit one of your pockets. He will figure that he is ahead 86% of the time and with his stack can afford to charge you for the draw. Putting you on as many as 15 outs he can put you on an EV coin flip by pushing. Does he trust his read enough to do that? Hard to say, but since there is some doubt that puts even greater value on the flop call. If he pushes you do you take the EV coin flip? Your stack is still average, I know I wouldnt take the chance.

Edit: This brings y0u full circle to raising pre-flop. You got an above average flop for your hand and are still making coin flip decisions on each street. With an average stack thats not ideal, and the preflop FE of a raise plus the possibility of favorable post flop situations make a raise viable as long as you realize you will be pot committed if you do hit a drawing hand.

Copernicus, I absolutely agree with your insistence on raising preflop; the reason I didn't do so here was because the button had been coming over the top of a lot of open-raises, and I was thinking I didn't want to turn this hand into 72 (a la TP4AP). We'll never know if he would've done so, and that's why I love this game.

Copernicus wrote:


What's your range for villain that gets you to these numbers? I could work out all the math, but let's just say his range is enormous and I'm likely no worse than 55/45 against the range.

That means if I push and villain always calls,
my EV = (.55 * (4,200+ 10,400+10,400)) = 13,750

If villain always folds to a stop+go, I win the 4200 in the pot, and
my EV = (1.0 * (4,200 + 10,400)) = 14,600

His fold is obviously +EV, but in reality, his fold equity is not 100%.

Assuming a number of plausible scenarios,
let's assume villain's FE is 25%.
In this case, my EV = ((.25 * 14,600) + (.75 * 13,750)) = 13,962

let's assume villain's FE is 50%.
In this case, my EV = ((.50 * 14600) + (.50 * 13,750)) = 14,175

Realistically, there is no way I can play this on the flop to give myself better than 50% FE, but I think a stop+go garners the most fold equity and therefore is probably the highest EV play.

But regardless of how I play it on the flop, if all the chips go in, it is at least +3,350 in tcEV. Folding is clearly wrong.

i was waiting for someone to mention how big the pot had become by the time the action came back to me on the flop. copernicus never lets me down. i think the c/r all-in was a clear mistake on my part because he's priced in to call with a ton of trash (like A4). i simply let the pot get too big.