Emptyeye
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 12:01 PM
NL tournies aren't really my thing, wondering about this hand.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed)
FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Emptyeye (t5485)
SB (t3210)
BB (t2029)
UTG (t2120)
MP (t10620)
CO (t7705)
Preflop: Emptyeye is Button with Q:heart:, Q:diamond:.
1 fold, MP calls t400.
Flop: (t1500) 3:heart:, 2:spade:, T:diamond:
(2 players)
MP bets t400, MP calls t800.
Turn: (t3900) 3:spade:
(2 players)
MP bets t600, Emptyeye calls t600.
River: (t5100) 9:diamond:
(2 players)
MP bets t3000, Emptyeye....
Comments on how to respond to the donk bet on the turn also appreciated.
NarSARSsist
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 2:12 PM
How many people are left in this tourney? I noticed that the chips don't really add up to a nice round number, so are there more people left then? What about the payout structure?
Without any idea about how the guy plays, I'll take a stab at this. The guy probably came in with some sort of hand that is playable, but not great [I suppose he could have slowplayed aces or kings, but like I said, I don't really know how the guy plays, so this has a lower probability]. It would seem on the flop that he caught a piece of it, so I'm thinking something like 10 K, 10 Q, 10 J, or 10 9. He bet 400 into a pot of 1500, which might mean that he's not completely secure with his hand, or he loves it and just wants to make sure that you call, so 22 and 33 pop up as a possibility. On the turn, he bet 600 into a pot of of 3900, so I don't think my assessment has changed from what I would expect from the flop. I can't really think folding is a good choice here unless you picked up some sort of monster tell online, and because he is the chip leader by a good margin [with almost twice your stack], I would think that if he would call anyway if he had a 10 (even w/o a K or A kicker) [which would be drawing dead against your two pair], and if you are behind, then it's not really wise to get your money in there. On the river, I dunno, he just basically put you all in, and the pot is around 5100, you would have to be about 70% sure that you're beat. If he has had a history for tricky plays, I suppose a fold here is right, but otherwise, I think he just has a 10 [especially if it's 10 9, which would make sense, and your queens up would still be good].
Please, if any would comment on my thoughts to help me improve, that would be very much appreciated.
strategy
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 2:25 PM
This looks like a $22 180 person SNG with about 40 left. I'd have raised a little more preflop and jammed the turn. It sounds a lot like he has a 3, but you gotta get value out of the lower pocket pairs and tens here.
NarSARSsist
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 2:39 PM
QUOTE (strategy)
This looks like a $22 180 person SNG with about 40 left. I'd have raised a little more preflop and jammed the turn. It sounds a lot like he has a 3, but you gotta get value out of the lower pocket pairs and tens here.
Thanks for making the newb feel bad :wink:. How does the payout structure look?
strategy
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 2:42 PM
QUOTE (NarSARSsist)
QUOTE (strategy)
This looks like a $22 180 person SNG with about 40 left. I'd have raised a little more preflop and jammed the turn. It sounds a lot like he has a 3, but you gotta get value out of the lower pocket pairs and tens here.
Thanks for making the newb feel bad :wink:. How does the payout structure look?
If I'm correct in thinking that it's a 180 person sit and go, the money starts at 18th but nothing less than 4th or so is worth your time.
Emptyeye
Sunday, January 1st, 2006, 2:56 PM
45 person SnG actually. I don't remember offhand how many people were left, but it was in the 12-15 person area. Top 7 pay, winning is the only thing really worth anything.
therrinn
Monday, January 2nd, 2006, 1:10 AM
I'd jam on the turn. I've seen similar plays very often when someone thinks your continuation betting and wants to push you off AK/AQ. Either way you look at it, calling is not the right choice. The chances that your hand will improve with the river are miniscule, whereas any card will make you doubt your hand even more. If you think you've got the best hand, reraise the wimpy turn bet. I really don't see the 3 as a likely holding - it just doesn't seem plausible given the betting pattern, unless he has pocket 3s. If that's the case, oh well, pay him off. I think that its far more likely that he has something like J10 and is trying to make you pay for what he thinks is a continuation bluff. Your call on the turn shows a lot of weakness, but makes the pot big enough to bluff at on the river.
On a side note, raise it to 800 preflop with him limping in front of you - if the bb calls the 400, MP is getting plenty odds to call with almost any hand. Even with everyone else folding, its only 400 to win 1100...not bad odds at all. Remember that he's the big stack - you have a nice hand, but a vulnerable one. and you can lose a lot of chips to him, so don't try to get fancy.
Willenation
Monday, January 2nd, 2006, 5:26 PM
I don't see anything about this hand pointing to him having the kind of holding that beats you. If he were holding a 3 or something like a set, he wouldn't have made such a substantially larger bet on the river than the turn. It feels to me like he's either got AK, AQ, or a PP 33-99 and is trying to push you off of what he thinks are just overcards.