It was late and I was tired and I think I was on a little tilt. That said, how many mistakes in this one?

I'm thinking the 3 bet on the flop and the continuation bet on turn AND then NOT following through and trying to represent the flush on the river?


Full Contact Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with [8c], [6d]. MP1 posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) [2h], [9d], [7s] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) [Kd] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

River: (9 BB) [4d] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Final Pot: 9 BB

check-call turn unless you have a read that UTG is a tight/weak.

check/fold river UI.

flop 3-bet stinks.
You don't have the equity edge enough to do that against just 2 others.
I like the flo lead since you have no idea where/if any a bet will come.

turn & river

You picked the worst combination

c/c turn to avoid a raise and call with odds to hit oesd.
then c/f river UI

or

Follow thru with flop aggression and lead turn
Must lead river, only need to fold 1/9, about
That's read dependent.
Will they fold and/or will you get raised on turn.
You are represeting a flopped set here or lucky BB two pair, not a flush, with this line.


c/c Turn, gaybet river in a desperation bluff, probably even better than your line.


Your flop 3-bet gave you the lead that I'm not sure you want with this hand OOP.


Tough to "represent" the flush the way you played the flop, so fast.
But opponets may not care/notice. You could have something like A 7 , I guess.
Although that's more of a c/r'ing hand on the flop.

Corrrect me if i'm wrong here but i think we do have an equity edge here. With 8 outs we take this down 35% of the time and we're only putting in 33% of the money. I like the flop 3-bet, but maybe I never understood equity even though i thought i did.

"stinks" was kinda harsh, but it's not good.
UTG could cap and leave us HU OOP
We are OOP so forget a free card.
We make our straight 31.4% of the time and do not win every time we hit.

I agree that we do not win every time we hit our str8, but how do we only make out straight 31.4% of the time?

8 outs

Likelihood of hitting at least 1 out = 1 - Likelihood of whiffing twice.

We either hit an out at least once or we don't
Right?

Probability of whiffing on Turn: 39/47
Probability of whiffing on River: 38/46

Probability of two independent events both occurring:

39/47 * 38/46 = 68.5%, Probability we whiff twice

1 - 68.5% = 31.5%, Probability we don't whiff twice.

cool huh!

To paraphrase Paul Phillips, "Your math is correct if you get sworn affadavits from both your opponents that they'll check the turn as well." You're ~35% to hit your straight with two cards to come. For a single card, 8/47=17% to hit.

Flush draws have about 35% equity. We have one less out than flush draws, which makes our equity slightly less. I don't do math as well as Actuary, but less outs means less equity.

Plus, as Actuary said, more aggression may land us heads up and we're out of position so we're not getting a free card.

HOLY SHI T

since i first heard about pot odds i've thought we had 8 outs on FD.


I'm speechless...

step away from the window.
turn the gas oven off.
it's ok.

i don't like the turn bet

the flop raiser almost never folds and he could very well raise again

To digress from the main piont of the thread, you don't have to think this way. If you have a four flush or an OESD on the flop, you will probably be seeing the turn and river regardless of what you do on the flop or what your oppoents do on later streets because you will have the pot odds to call.

So when considering when to raise or call with such a strong draw, we need only consider whether we have an equity edge.

As Actary pointed out, against two opponents, we don't have an equity edge because our straight will lose a little bit of the time.

If you were in position, you might be able to make a case for 3-betting for a free card.

You're correct in that regard, though it can be something to think about. As it is, as others have already said, I don't think our edge is big enough to 3-bet regardless, especially since we don't have a backup if we whiff on the OESD.

Thanks for the replies again. I love math and have never been able to wrap my mind around calculating the percentages, until now. Don't know what about Actuary's explanation made the light go on, but THANKS!!

I could be drunk, but I don't think you have 8 clean outs here? anyone explain thanks.

You have 8 clean outs on the flop, though the diamond hitting the turn taints two of them (Giving you six clean outs on the river).

yeah, and villan could have QJ... :roll:

HU you have 7.9 discounted outs here on the turn.