I won't post any more hands today. Middle position is killing me the last 2 days. I'm a TAP and trying to be more aggressive post-flop but still find myself going into call-down mode when I meet resistance. Here I flop the flush draw and the OESD, so I've got a ton of outs. Should this be a fold or cap when 3-bet back to me? Only 25 hands on the SB, so I don't have a read on him/her.

I also apologize in advance for being a complete donk, but thank you all for your insights.


Full Contact Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with [4c], [Ac]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) [5c], [6s], [7c] (8 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) [3s] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) [6h] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

My line might be off here, but I may just go for overcalls on the flop. The straight draw isn't that great as you're really drawing to the low end, but the flush draw is nice.
On the turn, at least you hit the lower end of the straight (the 8 possibly giving someone a higher straight with a 9), but I'd raise here to find out if he already has the 8 9 for a flopped straight.

You are drawing to the ignorant end of the straight, so it's not worth the full 15 outs (more like 12?). Nonetheless, I tend to cap the flop and most definitely raise the turn when I hit the straight. You still have a bunch of outs if SB happens to have the 98, and you are freerolling with the flush draw against any other 4. Sets will only outdraw you on the river one time in 4.4, and two pair one time in 11.

Slow down to a turn 3-bet, though, unless your opponent is insane.

I'm interested to hear if other people cap the flop in this spot (only one villian left, ignorant end of the OESD with the nut FD).

I cap this flop all day long.

Might buy you a free card on the turn.

I'd give myself on avg. about 13-14 outs here. Heads up, an 8 might be dirty but that's much more likely multi-way. So with 13-14 outs we have an equity edge on the flop even HU. Hell, even with 12 outs we have a slight equity edge. Don't even think about folding this!!!

Having said that you're real mistake comes on the turn. Raise turn and lead river. If he's a lag/maniac, cap it and lead river.

flop was great.
No need to cap HU.
Too bad be blew the field away.
But that opens up your Ace outs.

Lots of players would play a flopped straight sneaky slow (not good in bigger pots with so many draws)

So I dont necessarily put you far behind here
And you clearly on FD alone need to call the flop 3-bet.

Raise turn.
Call down if 3 bet.

*** read replies ****

I wouldn't always take Free Card after capping flop adn getting HU.
We may get a fold if we fire again

13 outs on the flop is not > 50% to win
14 is close, but ignores redraws.

(13/47)*2 = 55.3%

what am i doing wrong?

I'm afraid I will lose any respect for myself that I have EVER had, if i'm making a retard mistake.

You're double counting the times you hit an out on the turn AND also on the river. I think the number is actually (13/47) + (13/46 * 34/47) = 48%
I could be wrong though...

Venn Diagram
You are dbl counting the overlapping portion when both cards are outs.
Also you are using a denominator of 47 for both streets.
And you are multiplynig by two.Bascially, you are using a rough estimate that is pretty close.

Exact calculation is:

The likelihood of hitting at least one out is 1 - the Probability of hitting No Outs

1 - ( 34/47 * 33/46 ) = 48.1%

in correct is:
13/47 + 13/46 = 55.9%

Correct can also be

13/47 + 13/46 - 13/47*13/46 = 48.1%
= Probability of hitting on either or both minus the fact we dbl counting hitting both times!

I'm a geek.

and there is another way!
ur right

this reads: The probability you hit on the first card + ( the probability you hit on the second, given you whiffed on the first *the likelihood off whiffing on the first)

I'm so ashamed of myself, so believe me when i say i swear i'm usually not this stupid

wow... the public humiliation of people thinking i'm an idiot is getting to me.

97% of people in America have no clue how to figure this out.

many posters (some in strategy), I contend, as well

I think Actuary probably already said this but,

Good flop. Raise is for value, as there has been a bet and 2 calls. Also if we fold out CO and button we have a better chance at getting a free card on the turn if we want. No need for capping HU.
Raise the turn, call down a 3 bet unless you improve on the river.

Villian flopped the high end of the straight. One thing MUST stop doing is playing scared, I'm too easily pushed around if I don't have nuts. :oops:

I think you meant the nuts, but it's funnier this way...

oiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii. well, if anything, i'm comic relief for the forum? LOL