Actuary
Saturday, December 24th, 2005, 6:17 PM
QUOTE (Verdimme)
Why no raise on the turn?
this is where a read is so important.
Will SB call preflop raise with any hand that makes two pair?
Does he cap the flop with TP, any pair, only.?
Could he possibly be getting agg with A5

, which is the hand I really want to raise here against.
Ih he has a set, we lose two more bets. A set, unless SB is looose, or has A5

, is his most reasonable holding. Not to assume he is reasonable; but no read.
SB either has 5, 9, 14 outs, I'd think. Or we have 2.
So SB always calls our raise, and will often fold the river UI, if on aggressive FD only. And may even fold UI pair, given our strenghth (doubtful, but maybe) SB will bet almost any hand UI/I on the river if we just call here. So we gain from the missed draws, sometimes.
SB looks really strong to me and risking a 3-bet (you're not folding right?) makes me want to check and induce a river bet.
I bet the river if checked to.
I have to be super strong orhave lots of outs to raise the big streets HU against an opponent shoowing this much strength.