Not a common situation, but here it is...


Bodog 1/2 NLHE (7-handed)

Cobalt $404
Button $156
SB $300

Cobalt is MP w/ 9 9 . Opponents are loose, but reasonable.

Pre-flop:
2 folds, Cobalt raises to $7

Flop ($28.): 5 4 6 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Cobalt bets $22

Turn ($116): 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Cobalt checks, Button bets $60...

Haha..Yeah.

Good fold, I think.

Edited; That's all. Good fold.

It's a really close call, but I guess folding's the right move. If I were playing, I wouldn't be able to estimate the pot odds fast enough, and I'd just call, not that it matters much either way.

I think you get an all-in called on ther river enough to make calling narrowly profitable without the straight flush possibility. But even if you're drawing dead one time in 20, I think it's enough to swing things out of your favor.

What??? :shock: He'd be drawing dead to 78 , but if he fills up the 8 alone won't do any good...

My mistake.

For some reason I thought the 4 was the 7 on the flop.

Whoops!

I'll edit.

what exactly does that mean?

Implied plus pot odds equal $450 (i think it's safe to say that we take villains entire stack when we fill up). It's $120 to call and you're closing action.

You're behind almost every time to a flush, and you fill up 10/46 times.

You're getting paid 3.8:1 with implied odds
You're 4.6:1 to make the draw


If you know he has a flush, you fold.


If you think that he's capable of making this move with elss than a flush or straight (ie: lower set or a pair with an ace high flush draw), then it becomes closer, but he'd have to be very aggressive/nuts before it becomes a call. And if you do call, you basically have to call the river unimproved, given how big the pot will be. And if that is the case, then i think pushing the turn becomes better than calling.

As in, opponents are going to be calling with a somewhat wide range of hands and chasing most draws, but when they bet, they're not maniacs. I think that at least one of them (if not both of them) has the flush or straight to be playing the turn like this. If I call here, I likely have to call the SB's river all-in if a non-spade comes off. I really think this is a push or fold for me. In this case, it's a fold.

Oh shit, for some reason i thought the guy who bet the first 60 folded.

That changes a lot. You potentially have two people to pay you off when you fill up, you have $60 more in the pot and so on and so forth.

Unfortunately, it also means action is reopened. And if someone pushes for another 120, the pot is big enough to justify a call.

How likely you think it is that the other guy will go over the top is the deciding factor here.

How likely you think it is that the other guy will go over the top is the deciding factor here.

so it all boils down to determining a few variables about what your opponents have and what they will do? well now that we've determined so much, its all so clear.


seriously though,

This situation is just too sketchy for my liking. I'd probably fold here a majority of the time, but I'd have to be feeling pretty disciplined.

i'd say folding cobalt folds about 75% of the time, and pushes calls 20% and pushes 5% just to pull some unfounded numbers out of my ass.