From cardplayer.com

Date / Time: 2005-12-14 23:04:00
Title: Joe Cassidy Wins a Huge Pot Against Patrik Antonius to Take the Chip Lead
Log: With the board showing 9s-6d-5d-Qh-Jd on the river, Joe Cassidy bets about $100,000 into a roughly $500,000 pot, and Patrik Antonius raises to $300,000. Cassidy makes an incredible call with Ad-7c (ace high). Sure enough, Antonius shows Ah-3d, and Cassidy's kicker plays to win the entire pot.


Joe Cassidy is our new chip leader with approximately $1.45 million, while Antonius is down to $500,000.


I cannot get my head around this call. There is so, so little that he can beat, 7-8 straight, K-10 straight, most other suited connectors have hit the board, half of broadway has hit, any pocket pair. From what his opponent is likely to raise / call a raise with pre-flop I'd think he'd only beat A smaller rag.

http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-forums/v...pic.php?t=41661


Thank you, please come again. (In Apu's voice)

That, or, he priced himself into the call.

500k in the pot. He bets 100k. Raised to 300k. There's 1 million in the pot, and he only has to call 200k more. It's a good call, but, shoot, so much in the pot, it's hard not to.

hard not to call with ace high, your joking right

Not saying it's easy by any stretch, but holding the Ad makes it easier

Problem is so many bluffs still beat him

You mean, paying 200k to win a million and take a commanding chip lead against a player who's hyper aggressive and makes a funny re-raise on the river? Not easy, but, I've seen tougher calls.

He needs to win this just under 17% of the time to have it be profitable.

He's wrong not to call, really.

Just dont make the mistake of thinking you are intelligent.

I'm sorry, I missed it.

Who the fuck are you?

It is an easy call, really- Not a dumbarse like your silly little self.

Apparently you missed the above bolded part.

Go eat a vegemite sandwhich, pud.

you typed he is wrong not to call. You are dumb.

6:1 on his money.

1/(6+1) = 14.3%

You need to be right less than 3 out of 20 times to make it a profitable call.

If you don't make this call (at least) 3 out of 20 times, you are dumb.

I'd explain it further, but I'm not certified to teach the mentally disabled.

wow you can calculate percentages. You jsut continue to think that folding is a mistake there... you moron. He is getting great odds, so you msut always call. Your are retarded, and know very little about poker.

Chill people.....

it WAS a great call, correct or not .

I'm going to have to ask you to stop throwing your own shit at the guards, sir.

No, you must win three out of twenty times to make this call correct.

Read the above post, where I even bolded for you, where I said it wasn't an easy call, and then read your posts.

Realize you are only truly making yourself look like a jackalope.

You're not going to hurt my feelings or make me look dumb by challenging my skill as a poker player.

I'm sorry your mother drank heavily with you in the womb, but I had nothing to do with it.

Actually its 4.5:1

Other than that, let it go - kouta's being a tool

You're right.

It's 22%, not 14%.

My mistake.

I'm right here too

Heh.

Very much so.

Nonsense. Learn what pot odds are before you try to apply them.

Making the mathematically correct call three times out of twenty will show three-twentieths the expected profit of calling all twenty times.

ETA: Unless you mean 3/20 to break even, 20/20 to maximize profit.

I worded that wrong.

You must win this hand 3 out of 20 times you call.

Roger.

Ding.

I got to agree with Kouta here. Your saying he is wrong not to make the call. I guaruntee you are folding in this spot. I know I am. He is up to 1.4 mil after the pot meaning that he called of 33% of his remaining chips into this pot. I know I am folding. Quit trying to make it into an easier call than it was. With a board like that and there had to be betting to get the pot up to 500,000 so do you really think you are ahead 22% of the time here with A high and 7 kicker????? I agree you dont have to be right all that much here to make this call right but to say he is wrong not to call with A high may be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Especially without knowing the betting pattern. I say he put him on a busted straight draw and thats why he made the call..

First bolded statement, yes.

Second bolded; for this reason.

And for the simple fact that you miss pairing the flop 67% of the time. You miss pairing through all the streets 53% of the time. Do you see why we win with ace high here 22% of the time?

I'm completely ignoring the fact that it's a tournament.

If he doesn't make this call he's crushed and all but down to the felt.

To reitterate; I NEVER SAID THIS WAS AN EASY CALL. I said it was profitable and that he's not wrong to call.

If you can't figure that out from the above posts, well.

And you're not even taking into account the type of player his opponent is, who is very capable of making this bluff with 4 high.

really? no one said folding is wrong?

I said it.

And I think it's the truth.

Why fold that pot and be on a short stack when you can make a profitable call and possibly end up with a huge stack, and make your way to the final table.

The fact you don't understand that is the most laughable thing in this thread.

What are the blinds at this point??? DO we know?? He would still have 600,000. I am not arguing that this would be a short stack or not because I dont know where the blinds and antes are at this point. I am not saying he shouldn't call. I just felt you were making it out to say he is just plain dumb if he doesnt call. I dont fell like most players make this call here even a small amount of the time

that you dont understand that on that board that A 7 is not beat more than 4/5 of the time is laughable. Great call, great poker, moronic poster.

1.45million - 1.1 million = 350k, not 600k

Average chipstack right now = 640k +/- a few thousand.

The key though is chip placement in regards to payout. Cassidy's not the type to play for a few thousand extra. He wants to Final Table/win the son of a bitch.

You know nothing.

You know nothing about table image of the opponent, you know nothing about the hand range the opponent makes a call with preflop, you know nothing about Cassidy's read, you know nothing about physical tells, you know nothing about any of the factors that would lead to Cassidy calling other than their two hands. You don't know if Antonius made the move and then flipped over his cards thinking Cassidy had folded when he was still considering the call.

I know none of these things and can at least look at it analytically.

You're just a pud.

Now go eat some Vegemite.

I look at i and conclude that there are a huge combination of hands that has A 7 beat, and as such is a great call. You seem to think anything but a call is bad poker. You then make retarded comments like go eat vegemite. I am sure you are impressed with yourself.

WEll your math is not at all right here. He has about 1.45 million after taking down 1.1 in this pot so he had 350k besides the extra 200 he put in the pot so he would be at 550k, just blow average. The way Joe plays, yes he makes this call knowing 1.45 Mil is night and day different then 550k but I dont think you can say 550K is dead and down to the felt. i would say he makes the call knowing he would still have 350k and may be able to come back. i am not arguing with you theory here but your just not arguing it very well saying he would be wrong not to call and he would be down to the felt, neither of which is true.

I'm sorry I damaged you with a reference to Vegemite. What I really meant to say was that I think the members of this forum greatly appreciate your contributions and that you should continue posting. And by "continue posting", I mean, go fuck yourself.

I'm impressed that you can honestly continue this argument with, well, yourself. I never said it was an easy call, I said it was the correct call. I agreed with you that it was a good call, infact. The fact that you continue to call me "dumb", a "moron", and a "bad poster", just magnifies the fact that you have no clue what you're talking about.

vegemite is absolutely terrible

Whose math?

1.45 million is his chip total after winning that pot. Period. The pot size, 500k + 100k(bet) + 300k(raise) +200k (call) = 1.1 million.

1.45 - 1.1 = 350k

Not such a great call really....

Now...calling with King high...that is impressive....

But against an overaggressive donkey like Patrick Antonius....Cassidy probably read that guy like a book.

Alot of these "young guns" just really suck......Cassidy is not one of them.....Joe Cassidy and Michael Gracz...IMO are the two best young players in the game.

I had a few friends that went to Australia for a semester. They came back talking about how great vegemite is. I tried it and almost puked. For three months they kept taking tiny bits from this one jar, until one night when we were hammered I interrogated them and found out that they actually hate it but it was the cool thing to eat in Australia so they pretended to like it.

Good story?

lol. I dont even eat vegemite, and im not sure that it is as big over here as you think it is. But still a nice story.

excellent story. one of my friends was in the army and took leave in australia and brought back some vegemite. I tried it. Tastes like vitamin B. Vitamin B tastes awful. I know some things are an aquired taste, but come on

Are you really arguing with me on this?? You were saying how shortstacked he is if he doesnt make the call. If he doesnt make the call he still has the 200,000 putting his stack at 550,000. If you are going to argue this point then you have lost your chance at your psots being viewed as intelligent. Think about it and come back in 5 minutes when you have figured out that you are wrong

I thought you were talking if he made the call and lost, I apologize.

You're correct, it is 550k.

I got a bit thrown when trying to reply to two people at the same time.

I figured that was it and figured you would own up to it which is why I was trying not to argue with you before because I agree with a lot of what you were saying just not how you were saying it.

After looking at this thread, your entire arguement was that its hard to call with A high in that spot, which nobody disagreed with you! Then you went on to flame Drawingdeadindm, after he explained WHY cassidy might call in that spot, who has contributed more to this forum over the weekend then you have since joining.

Bottom line: Cassidy obviously realized that the last raise by Patrick Antonius (who is a very Uber-Aggressive player) was something fishy. He was getting 4:5:1 in a large pot. I think it was a tough one but a great call.

So we understand where each other is coming from then?

Hey, if nothing else, don't say I've never admitted when I'm wrong.

I just don't think I am on this one.

I just don't see how, mathematically, this is a tough concept. I understand how tough of a call it is when you're sitting at the table staring at that board. But if you're committing that much of your stack, you about have to call.

Ignore everything I've posted and read this.

I dont disagree with most of this. Firstly, you must be a sad sad person if you have read everyone of my posts.

Secondly, Drawingdeadindm said it was bad poker to fold, and i disagreed with that statement. Saying its bad poker to fold A 7 there is, err, ill let you decide.

Good post......that about sums it up.....

Now...had Antonius moved in...it might have been the call of the year.....

But with Antonius's table image and the read that Cassidy SURELY had on him...it was a Ho hum..."good call"...very much like calling with second pair......

Show me in this thread where I said it was bad poker to fold. I said it was a good call, but a tough one. I said it was dumb not too. But I don't think it's bad poker. There's a lot of plays I don't agree with--that doesn't mean their bad poker.

You just keep reading into this whatever you want and post accordingly--it seems like that's what's going to happen either way.

I give it a 6. When we got to the part about getting hammered, I thought we could be heading into 9 1/2 Weeks territory with vegemite smeared on naked chicks and stuff.

So, yeah, I'm a little disappointed. Not your best work.

Still cuddle-buddies?