.\|/.
Thursday, December 15th, 2005, 7:55 AM
QUOTE (rocketwad)
The problem I see (which is why I am apparantly a terrible PLO player) is that we do not know where we are in the hand right now. We may be behind, but we could also be ahead. We know nothing about the opponent, so who knows. I think it is safer to call here and see what the turn brings, rather than put in a raise (if we are re-raised, then what?) The even safer play is to fold, but as you showed in your math, even against a set of queens we are 45% to win, so that just seems way to tight to me.
I agree, if we got re-raised I would almost certainly make the call but would feel pretty sick about it. But will we ever know where we are at in the hand aside from hitting an ace/queen? And on the turn we could be in really bad shape unimproved, so don't we have to fold to a pot bet?
If these are correct assumptions, wouldnt a call be incorrect? We have 15 outs to a boat or flush (BUT, there are most likely less outs since villans hand isn't really random, he obviously has 2 pair, a set, or 2 hearts) we are getting 2:1 on our money on the flop, but our chance to improve on the turn card is in the very best case %31.91. I guess there is at least a 2% chance he wont pot it on the turn... but then again I would feel hesistant putting my stack in with a 4high flush, even with the redraw.