mrdannyg
Friday, December 9th, 2005, 9:54 AM
QUOTE (Actuary)
note to self:
Actuary,
don't post when you play hands in a non-traditional way, especially ones that play themselves so easily, like AA. Repsonses will fluster you. Wait until you play 3/6, then they will oooh and ahhh.
sincerely,
Actuary.
this is true because the simplest way is almost always the best.
you didn't really give us enough information to justify playing this non-traditionally. if we knew how much money he'd started the hand with for instance, that might affect the analysis.
mostly though, this non-traditional way is less liked because it gives him more options.
to compare the two hands:
traditionally, you three-bet the flop and lead the turn, whether he caps or not. if he raises turn, you call down. call this way A and your way B.
situation B gives up half a bet on the flop, whether behind or ahead, since his raise does not tell us whether you are behind or not.
on the turn, A usually wins one bet when ahead and loses two when behind. there is a reasonably good chance he raises there with AK though, so you will sometimes win two when ahead.
however, B will win two when ahead and usually lose 3 when behind. rarely will you get reraised when ahead. i don't think having this checked through is particularly likely.
on the river, A will usually win or lose one bet, although if he indeed had AK, he may check the river behind if he raised the turn.
since you are leading the river or check/calling a turn reraiser, you will win/lose one bet pretty much every time.
i really don't like assigning percentages to outcomes, so i haven't come to any definite conclusions. but it seems like you are giving up half a bet on the flop for the possibility of winning an extra bet later, while also allowing for losing an extra bet later.
so it seems like you are usually risking 1.5 bets in hopes of winning 1 bet. i think you are usually ahead on an X-Q-K flop with AA, but perhaps not often enough, especially since you are giving options to another player. that isn't a big worry since at the lower limits, the players are by no means guaranteed to make the correct decisisons, but it's still not a good trend.
daniel