PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: ME is with AK . MP1 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, ME calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6:spade:, 9:heart:, 6:diamond: (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, ME calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 4:club: (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, ME folds.



Final Pot: 10.25 BB

I'd have probably raised the flop to get a better indication of where I'm at, but if you're going to just call the flop, a turn fold is pretty much automatic considering you only have partial outs as an Ace or King might not be clean

your drawing to 6 outs against any non A/K + 9
3 outs against A9
3 outs against K9
0 outs agains 6x

unlikely MP has a 6
UTG bets is troublesome.
as is the overcall

I still want to see river, implide odds 11:1 ish
Call one on River if A/K.
Wanting to see river makes me want to raise the flop.
But other than a possible free card and hopefully not getting 3 bet, not sure what that does for us.

What suit?

normally raised the flop but confidence was down cuz i was getting out drawn quadbillion times that session

also A came on the river, i punched the wall.

10 BB in there, i got 6 outs roughly 12 % to make it.

1.2 out of 10 chance of making it,

the pot is offering 10 - 1 right

so should i have called? i wasnt thinking these at the time.

and are the odds that i calculate correct in any way

think of it like this it will be easier to keep up with during hand:

Lets call it 10 bets (rake)

Lets say all your Aces and Kings are outs.

6 outs, 46 unknown cards

46:6 or 6.7 : 1 is the pot odds you need.

Getting 10:1, plus any Rvier action, seems to warrant a call.

However, how often are your A/K not outs?
You are drawing dead to 6x and and A/K + 9 cuts your outs in half.

If your AKs matched a suit on the flop, that might make me wanna raise this flop. Free card would be nice.

If 3-bet on flop, fold turn, UI.

Raising this flop is no good.

What range of hands do you guys put villian on when he caps?

We will likely get 3-bet. If not, he may lead the turn anyway.

If we raise the flop, and take a free card on teh turn, he bet the river and win with AK.

I like the way OP played it.

hmmm.
Pot so big, hate just calling.
But, it's not like we open up any outs doing so. (Edit: by raising that is)

given the possibilty of free card, I like raising flop.

MP was poster, I give them wider range
May be one of those that "wants to keep control"

If we FLOP gets 3 bet, and Turn palys same, we'll be getting 12:1 and should call then, imo.

I don't mind that.

I also don't mind the OP's line.

what suit was AK?

We better start praying he is if we raise this flop. Most players aren't this way though. And without a read, raising the flop is a sp-sp-spew.

Just say the flop gets 3-bet. We are now drawing very slim, and have unfortunately given ourselves the odds to see the river. Now we call the turn and whiff the river. We end up paying 2BB's extra for a chance to hit what's likely to be less than a 6 outter.

It seems like by raising the flop, we're trying to force things and keep control of the hand. But no matter what we do, villian isn't folding this flop or turn after he capped pf.

I don't see how any good can come from raising this flop.

we never get a free card?
we always get 3-bet ?

well, ok.
Then you're right.

Fold flop.

Yeah, absent any reads (As in this situation), I can put MP1 on a range of about 4 hands: We're dead to running Kings against AA, have three outs against KK, probably split with another AK, and six outs against QQ.

Based solely on this, I can't be asked to do the calculations this quickly (As I have to leave soon), but we may be getting the odds (I think we are) to call and see the turn on the basis that he's more likely to have QQ or AK than AA or KK. I don't like raising the flop here as we're likely behind anyway, and I doubt a flop raise will get us a free card.

UTG waking up out of nowhere on the turn generally makes this an easy fold regardless of our flop play anyway.

emptyeye:

wouldn't UTG usually wait to c/r with a big hand?

Do you discount MP1's hands at all since he was a poster ?

I never said we never get a free card. We occassionally will. Not nearly enough to make raising good.

I don't know how that leads to folding the flop.

And while the pf raiser could start raise light in the beginning because he posted, our 3-bet is more than likley to keep him in line. After we 3-bet, I think his cap pretty much means what a cap would mean if he never posted.

I think you overvalue how his posting affects his capping range, and underestimating how much raising actually costs us.

I'd expect nothing less from an optimistic who is currently running quite good. :-)

I was just playing Devil's advocate on the "Fold Flop" line.

It's just that SSHE says you should almost always raise or Fold when someone to your immediate right leads the flop.
Big Pot makes me wann raise it up!
MP might be thinking "Hey, you're trying to isolate me, 'cause you don't trust my raise. Well, I have KJ/77 here, and I'll show you"

optimism is +EV !

I won't ever feel good enough about our hand to riase later streets, unless AA hits.

I have a knack for pumping pots and catching my outs! :-)

I truley do suffer from "at work, don't think it thru, let me send this idea up there, and seee what sticks. Screech will set it straight and we all learn" syndrome.

it helps.

Obviously, if I played as bad as I post sometimes, I'd need another job!

This is mostly true. But there are not a lot of situations where you should raise with overs. They should be treated as weak draws. Even if you think you have 4 outs to win with overs, they're still not as strong as a 4 outter gutshot. The only advantage of overcards is that they have sd value against over-aggro opponents.

Check out this 2+2 thread buy Nate tha' Great. It's, uh...good.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...r=2737416&page=

Call flop, call turn, fold river unimproved. You have odds to chase you're likely 6 outer till the river.

I don't think we do.

Say he caps with AK, AA-QQ, and some other random junk we have 6 outs against 20% of the time. Our hand breakdown looks like:

AK - 9 combos - 2 outs (4 outs really, but we split the pot if we hit)
AA - 3 combos - 0 outs
KK - 3 combos - 3 outs
QQ - 6 combos - 6 outs
xx - 5 combos - 6 outs

Average outs = 3.6

So we need 11.5:1 to continue. Not enough.

do you have time to actually calculate this during the hand

Every time I do that type of analysis someone always asks that.

I think I'm going to start saying yes to freak people out.

While you don't have to do these calculations (I doubt anyone does), you should eventually be able to get a fairly close estimate of how many outs you have. Just put your opponent on a range, figure out the outs against each type of hand, and perform a quick guess. It's much better than saying, I think I'm beat - I fold.

Question 1: Depends. Most micro-limit players I've seen don't have the c/r in their arsenal. They just think "omg I hit BET BET BET!!1!1" I'm actually mostly the same way, but I'm a fan of fastplaying in general, and making continuation bets regardless of whether I hit or miss, etc. such that I'm hopefully not that easy to read (As opposed to the typical "check/call...check/call....OMG I HIT A HUGE HAND BET RAISE RERAISE CAAAAAAAAP" of a lot of micro-limit players) despite my admittedly overly tight preflop selection.

Question 2: The raise may or may not mean anything. As has been said before, when we 3-bet, his cap is showing us no respect whatsoever, so he either likes his hand a lot or has balls of steel. Once again, absent any reads, I usually tend to go for the former.

As an aside, it was the "average # of outs given an opponent's hand range" calculation that I couldn't be asked to do quickly. I think it was only the fact that we split with another AK (Which in my mind leaves us the entire deck with outs in that situation) that would push this from a fold to a call on the flop.

11.5, that's close Screech!
We can expect 1 more bet on river, 11.25 or 12.25.
Although, if we're overcallnig, I don't like our chances as much.

See, if we raise the flop we get to see river! :? :green:
You'd think I'd have a <50% W$SD%.

While his capping range is likely as you stated with the possibility of AQ/JJ/1010 added to be the other 5 combos I think we have to discount the possibility of some of these hands due to the way he played post flop. Only the most passive players are just calling this turn bet with AA or KK.

If we merely take out the AA and KK combos we are looking at

AK - 9 combos - 2 outs (4 outs really, but we split the pot if we hit)
QQ - 6 combos - 6 outs
xx - 5 combos - 6 outs

for an average of 4.2 outs in which case we have odds to call.

Or removing just AA

AK - 9 combos - 2 outs (4 outs really, but we split the pot if we hit)
KK - 3 combos - 3 outs
QQ - 6 combos - 6 outs
xx - 5 combos - 6 outs

We are given an average of 4 outs in which case calling is also ok.

I mean its probly to close to matter but I think seeing the river here is alright especially as vs a new player his capping range can possibly be much larger then we are giving him credit for.

What about UTG+1 in this hand? His turn bet make me wonder here. He most likely doesn't have a 6, because I think even a micro limit player would check raise this turn, if he was slow playing on the flop. But what else could he be leading out with in this spot?

As for the OP. With two others in this pot, and each of them betting out on a street, I don't think Ace high has much showdown value, however, as it was said above, with no raise on the turn from the MP, the A and K outs could be clean here, so as long as we are getting odds to continue with 6 outs, we should at least see a river.

About the flop raise, I probably wouldn't do it because in this case we are most likely being 3-bet, and I don't think it gives us a better chance to win this hand either. Not only that, but I don't think there is any way we have the best hand, given the cap preflop.

Zach

Why are you taking out the AA/KK comb0s in your analysis? They are the most likely hands given that he capped.

Anyway, I included the AQ/JJ/TT possibilities in my analysis by saying he has some other shit [xx], 5 times, and I gave us 6 outs agianst each. If you think he has these other hands a bit more often, just up the number of combos from five, to say 9.

Now we have 3.9 outs, and are 10.5:1 against. If we were HU, we wouldn't have the odds to call. 3-ways, it's close, but we could now be drawing dead to UTG (I never noticed that he bet the turn), so it's a pretty easy fold.

raise flop.
tie yourself to hand
catch Ace on River
TP/MM.


(get free card sometimes!)


1/2 day at work today, I'm giddy.

If I'm presuming he's even a somewhat reasonable player, I'll say that 44 is a likely holding. 4X where X is anything other than a 6 is probably out, as the pair of 4s is counterfeited by the board pairing sixes.

If we're up against AA or KK this turn is almost always getting raised by mp1.

While AA and KK are likely capping hands preflop he sure didn't play the turn like he has either of them. Putting someone on a preflop hand range is good but I think you have to change that range as you go based on the players postflop play.

Like I said before its to close to matter but in a pot this big i'm usually looking to see a river.

I agree that we have to adjust our the range as the hand plays out. I misread the action and didn't realize UTG donked it until after I made the post.

But MP may still slow down when the UTG player donking it like that. Not usually, but it's a possiblity. Let's assume he never will with AA, and to make up for that, we reduce the KK combos to 2. We could have six outs, but the presence of UTG really hurts us. We could easily be drawing dead.

Now it becomes closer. Until you consider UTG's range too.

He could have A9/K9/99, 4x, and a number of other hands. Having him donk this turn really decreases our chances of winning this pot by spiking a pair.

I played a hand last night at this level in which 3 of us capped preflop.
With a board of AA86, it got capped on the flop and the turn.
I was sure my AQ was beaten.

Opponents had Q7 and 32.
There were no draws.
(It's been a long time since I've seen a 3high at showdown!)

I know that makes no sense whatsoever.
But when you factor in the possible Bezerko Factor with an unknown opponent at the micro-limits, it makes you tempted to add another out when calculating your pot odds.
This often leads me to call down in borderline situations.



This is the way I would have played it.


--cnm