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GamblinLeaf
So some of us were talking last night about the increasing lack of posts in the LHE strat section, so I thought I'd do my part ...

Opponent is TAG after ~150 hands ... 19/7/2.5


PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Leaf is UTG+1 with [Tc], [Ts].
1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) [Qh], [8h], [Jc] (2 players)
BB checks, Leaf bets, BB calls.

--> Standard bet/fold against a TAG?


Turn: (3.25 BB) [Ad] (2 players)
BB checks, Leaf bets, BB calls.

--> Again, bet/fold?


River: (5.25 BB) [5d] (2 players)
BB checks, Leaf bets ...

--> At this point, with 3 overs and the coordinated board I figure I can only win if he folds and I thought there was a good chance he was on the flush draw given his complete lack of aggression. I likely would've folded to a raise. Thoughts/comments on any street?

Final Pot: 6.25 BB
fopkins
I mainly play NLH, but I'll give it a try.

I bet/call the flop, and check/fold UI the turn (assuming he raised the flop).

When he just calls and checks the turn, I like bet/call, wouldn't it be correct to call a raise with 8, maybe 10 outs?

I check behind on the river.. if he was on a flush draw, you win unless he caught the ace which is he isn't folding to one bet if he did. There's no reason to try to push him out of the pot unless he would chase you down with Jx or Qx and fold the river, which is pretty ridiculous.


-fop
GamblinLeaf
QUOTE (fopkins)
I check behind on the river.. if he was on a flush draw, you win unless he caught the ace which is he isn't folding to one bet if he did. There's no reason to try to push him out of the pot unless he would chase you down with Jx or Qx and fold the river, which is pretty ridiculous.

-fop


I thought about this but given that he was in the big blind I though he could have been on the flush draw with the Jx of hearts.
screech
I would bet/call that flop. You have a gutshot too.

Bet/fold the turn.

Check behind the river. If he never folded the turn, he isn't folding the river with a made hand. Hope that he was on a draw.
pokerplayer24
Bet/call the flop with the gutshot

Bet/call the turn. You now have a dbb a K or 8 gives you the straight.

check behind on the river.
TheCinciKid
Haven't read replies...

I tend to play it about the same. I'm a little concerned about the river bet though. If he may be on a flush draw, why not check behind? As I see, we lose when he calls our bet and he's not folding a hand that we beat often enough to make a bluff profitable.
Actuary
Screech:

why Bet/fold turn?


like others,

I Bet/Call Flop
if Raised, I Call Turn.

if called, I Bet/Call turn.

I check behind on this river,
I fold if bet into.
screech
QUOTE
Screech:

why Bet/fold turn?


That's what you do when you can't read boards.
I missed the double belly-buster.
jayboogie
There's no way you should be betting the river as your certain to get called by hands that beat yours and busted draws would just fold, so betting has no value either, avoid betting marginal hands that you should be glad to showdown cheaply.
GamblinLeaf
QUOTE (jayboogie)
There's no way you should be betting the river as your certain to get called by hands that beat yours and busted draws would just fold, so betting has no value either, avoid betting marginal hands that you should be glad to showdown cheaply.


Generally I agree. Just to add a wrinkle, villian has a high "fold to river bet" stat (70%). Do you think we fold a jack often enough to make this profitable?
Actuary
QUOTE (GamblinLeaf)
Generally I agree.  Just to add a wrinkle, villian has a high "fold to river bet" stat (70%).  Do you think we fold a jack often enough to make this profitable?



over how many chances?

2/3 or 21/30 ?

wow, that's very hi.
I'd certainly consider betting then if decent sample size and/or slightly bigger pot.
GamblinLeaf
QUOTE (Actuary)
QUOTE (GamblinLeaf)
Generally I agree.  Just to add a wrinkle, villian has a high "fold to river bet" stat (70%).  Do you think we fold a jack often enough to make this profitable?



over how many chances?

2/3 or 21/30 ?

wow, that's very hi.
I'd certainly consider betting then if decent sample size and/or slightly bigger pot.


I'd have to go back and check but it wasn't a ton. Under ten. All I saw in the heat of the moment was the percentage.
Actuary
<10, check down.

Is that avail on Ace HUD display while you play?
I might need that again.

during play, I just got used to GT+.
And ACE HUD refreshing was distracting, while GT+ is discreet.
But I like it for Table selecting. Party lower limits has some tight tables!
GamblinLeaf
QUOTE (Actuary)
<10, check down.

Is that avail on Ace HUD display while you play?
I might need that again.

during play, I just got used to GT+.
And ACE HUD refreshing was distracting, while GT+ is discreet.
But I like it for Table selecting. Party lower limits has some tight tables!


Yeah, you have a tremendous amount of flexibility as to what stats you choose to use with HUD. It also took me a while to get used to it after using GT but now it's hard to go back.
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