screech
Tuesday, November 29th, 2005, 12:04 PM
QUOTE (KickBallStud)
I really think its read dependent on the river.
If you think he has a smaller pp, an Ax, or a busted draw then a value bet is probably the right move.
his call on the turn is what scares me, you claimed he was a decent player at the 3/6 level, so his call here would make me more inclined to just check the river and call his bet.
Why does his call scare you?
To me it indicates he either a small pp or a flush draw. Any king is raising the turn. I think JJ/a set usually throws in a raise somewhere too. Two high cards like AQ probably give up when I bet the turn.
So his most likely holdings are a pp smaller than mine, or a busted fd. Now he may have paired his queen with a busted flush draw, but he certainly won't raise the river if he did pair, but he'll probably bet if checked to. I lose the same either way.
If he has a busted draw, he's going to be discouraged to bluff given the way I've played the hand. I've shown strength all the way to the river, and a river check basically indicates that I want to see sd cheaply with a marginal hand. Most people aren't bluffing here. For the same reason, a pp won't value bet.
However, a pp may call a bet, hoping I have a busted draw, to high unpaired cards like AJ, or a smaller pp.