I'm running well on a $0.50 $1 NL 6 max table on PArty.


Table is loose passive pre and post flop.

Relevant stack sizes are:

hero $295
villian $ 250

I pick up AA utg and raise to $4.

3 callers (crap)

Flop come 2 3 4 (2 clubs)


I bet the pot approx $15 and villian raises to $40.

Eevryone else folds.

My action?

Reads on villian are minimal as he's moved to the table about 15 hands ago. He seems solid and I've seen him make a raise like this with a flopped set a few hands ago.

I'd probably raise it to $70 and see how he reacts. He could be raising you with 77 or 66 or 88. Very likely actually since flop is 2 3 4 . He could be raising with 55 and have a straight draw. I'd be inclined to see him to the river if you said he just hit a set a few hands ago. Not likely he's hit another set. I hate putting all my money in with AA when 3 others see the flop so I'd be trying to see the river but not for my whole stack. If he calls the raise on the flop, I'd check/call to the river as long as he doesn't put you all-in.

His chances of hitting a set are the same whether he just hit one or hasn't hit one in over 20 pocket pairs.

All these considerations went through my head while I was trying to decide. The more I think about the more I think he had an overpair.

I think a reraise to $70 tells him I have a high pair and if comes back over the top I can fold. If he calls he's on a draw w something like 55.

Also, the odds of him hitting a set are mutually exclusive from any other hands he's played.

Did you have the ace of clubs?

I sense he has an overpair as well. Probably between TT and QQ. If he had KK, he would have reraised before the flop. Clearly, he could have a set, a striaght (56 or A5), or two pair.

Well, your $15 can be easily seen as a contiuation, so his raise can mean a variety of hands. A reraise is certainly in order so we can narrow down what he has. If he comes over the top of that reraise, we probably should let it go and put him on trips or a made straight.

Since his hand is vulnerable to a hand like the Ax of clubs, he will push all in with trips or a straight (unless he's a fool).

Blech, I hate not having position.

Position is key in this hand for sure. I did not have the Ac and a reraise is the correct play here for sure.

Thanks for the help

WPOTW.


I reraise and see what develops then. Is it worth considering a stop and go on a safe turn?


-fop

this crossed my mind as well. If we are putting him on an overpair we dont want to push to hard. Would this guy re-raise with a flush draw?? If we had a great read on this guy and were very confident he has an overpair you could almost slowplay the Aces but without that read I htink we have to re-raise now

I know that hitting a set is still 8 to 1 for each hand but I'm saying that if he just had a big hand 10 hands ago, it's unlikely he hit another one. That's why we use aggression factor, to help sniff out those who are full of it.

Don't listen to some of these guys who push all-in with AA all the time post-flop. It's not good. If you can fold your KK and AA when you are beat by a set you are already ahead of about 90 % of the competition and that fold alone will save you a ton of money.

That's not how odds work. Have you ever heard of a thing called variance?

It is true that he's less likely to have a big hand here, but theredpill's articulating the reasons for it terribly. The fact is that if he just played a set that way, he's likely to play another hand the exact same way in order to misrepresent his hand, and he's also more likely to move with a marginal hand now that he's "playing with house money."

I think the best move here is to call and see what develops on the turn. Too many players reraise when they're unsure and miss out on a lot of value when they're ahead. I think that a good player should be able to watch how the turn bet is executed, and get a much better read on villain's potential holdings than we have from just the raise on the flop.

I do tend to pay off with overpairs a little too much though, so take what I say with a grain of salt.

Wow. :roll:

Each hand is an independant event. His odds of hitting a set are the same no matter what happened 10 minuets ago. The cards don't have any memory.

Haven't read replies

Reraise the flop to 100. Fold if he moves in.

Two clubs, worse overpairs, a lot of things raise this flop here. We have 6 outs to beat a set, and it'll calm him down.

This is catastrophically flawed reasoning.

If it's heads 1000 times in a row, then what are the odds next time? 50/50.

What are the odds of hitting heads 1001 times in a row? ([2^1001] - 1) : 1.

They're completely different questions.

Thanks again guys. It's amazing how different you are capable of playing when confidence is high.

I like the reraise flop line the best.

A few weeks ago, I sat down at a Crazy Pineapple game. On my first hand in the BB, I had a pocket pair. I flopped a set and won. The next hand, in the SB, I had another pocket pair. I flopped another set and won. On my third hand, I caught another pocket pair on the button. Yup...I flopped another set and won. Is it unlikely to flop three in a row (considered as a joint event)? Yeah...but it happens.

While I'm not sure about this hand, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the opponent could have a set.

Okay, so the table is passive post flop yet you were reraised strong.
You have an overpair, which is marginal on a flop like this.
An ace is not a clean out. Your hand is unimprovable.
Any reraise should be called by someone with a drawing hand unless you raise it to about 100.
You're out of position, and you have no idea where you stand with the hand on the turn.
Your opponent knows what you have.

Definte fold here IMHO.

I'm not convinced he knew I had a big pair. Being out of position and not knowing where I am in the hand is the argument for raising.

I did end up folding but still can't help but think it was a mistake. I'm sure the correst playing is to reraise and fold to a push but I didnt want to lose another big pot with AA.

From YOUR blog, redpill:



Nice job. :roll:


-fop

Well, if you reraised he'd know you had the overpair. You typed all the info in yourself. Passive table. He reraises like this with monster hands. You are out of position and only have one pair.

Now, if you really want to go to war because you think he has 99 or a draw, there is no point in reraising him to 70 on the flop. You have no fold equity here with the exception of maybe 3 hands unless you're going to push all in. Instead of reraising to 70, the better play is to call 25 more and then fire out 50 on the turn if no flush card hits. The turn is where you can put pressure on big drawing hand, and if he comes over the top you know what he has and can fold up.

By the way, this flop isn't like a QT6 flop where you have to worry about partial hits with that many people in. I'd have bet 1/2 the pot (it's already bloated with 4 people in) on the flop to charge for any flush draws. That bet was way too big and is part of the reason you're playing for such a huge pot at this point with only a pair.