Recently, there's been a situation for a possible play that I've seen. I'd like to know opinions as to if it would be a good tournament play or not. I haven't done it yet but have been tempted to try it.

A good tight player raises in EP 3xBB to 600,; it's folded round to me on the button and I call with AQ (making a mental note to beware of him holding AK if an ace hits), but decide to call with position on him. Suppose we both have 10k, with BB 200.

Flop comes A 7 J

He bets 600 into pot of 1500. I call but remain cautious of him holding AK.

Turn comes: 4

He bets 1500 into pot of 2700. I know this player well, he is tight and a good player that would not raise with AJ in his EP. His second bet on the turn tells me that he has the ace. Becasue the A is on the board I don't think that he has the flush. The only possible holding that he would rasie with in EP to give him this is K Q although this would be a loose raise from this player so I think it's very unlikely he has the flush. I have a strong read on him that he has AK; which has me beat, BUT because I know that he would be scared of me having a flush OR AJ for two pair I think that a raise of his bet 2500 more to 4000 would take the pot. He has 7300 and is still in good shape but calling would leave him with just 4800. If he re-raises me then I fold and if he calls I fold to a bet on the river unless I spike a miracle queen. I think that calling his bet on the turn is the absolute worst choice which I would not do. What can I beat that he would raise with in EP (he wouldn't raise there with A10)? One possible holding that he has is trip jacks which would beat my potential holding of AJ, but he may even fold these in fear of the flush. I don't think that he'd raise in EP with 7s.

I know that this would not be a play to make against an unknown or average player but against a good player that can get away from a hand what do you think? Is this a good case of playing the player not your cards or too risky a play to try?

I almost never have a read that specific on an opponent.

It's a risky play. He could be scared you've got hearts or two pair, but call (or push) with AxKh. TPTK w/nutflush redraw has you in bad shape, and any player worth his salt would play it tough.

If your read REALLY is that specific, and you really can get away from the hand if he raises, and your read's right, then the play's fine

Otherwise, you could be in trouble.

Cheers.

Ice

If you have that great of a read then go for it. You have to know more than a read of him having AK though in order to make this play successfull. You need to know he will lay down a big hand like this if you come over him. You may be very sure he has AK but he may not fold to a raise. You described him as tight so it could be possible. Not something I would try often but everyone can play strong cards so in order to go above that these are the kinds of moves you can make on the occasion

This is a very dangerous play, he could be doing the same thing with JJ. He already has a 1/5 of his stack in the pot. You could attempt this play and like you said if he is good enough he would fold. However he might anaylze there is no way you would just call on the flop with such a dangerous board with AJ
or if he doesn't think you have a flush he would probably push all in. You could also attempt this and he might not be able to fold AK with the K of hearts. This play is just what you said, very fancy, and from my experience most fancy plays fail miserably against the wrong opponents. Only if you are absolutely positive this person has phenomenal judgment or excellent self control I would not recommend this play. A player that raises AK in first position usually is not going to fold when the Ace hits, I would wait for a better hand but who knows it might work. If your table image is slightly flawed this will never fly. Just seems like a play with a 50% rate of success, maybe less. Maybe some trial and error is in order, lol just wait for that situation again.

i love this play.. play the scare card, it works well

he's gonna hate that heart on the turn... and he's gonna hate your raise even more. his two choices are to fold or to go all-in. w/ his stack still at 35x bb, i think he'll pick a better spot than tptk w/ a coordinated board.

You must know this player VERY well to have such a specific read on him. That, and he must me pretty goddam predictable. It does seem like a fine time for a bluff if you feel he will fold anything but a flush. But I would always be cautious making a specific read like that on somebody. There are so many possible card combinations, and players (if they're any good at all) are unpredictable.

raise the flop to 1800-2100
and go from there

if he reraises and you can give him credit for a better hand, lay it down, your stack wont be hurting that badly anyway, if he flat calls, i would punch it hard on a non-heart non-J,K,T turn. If he calls that, check behind on the river.

Chief