3/6 six

i'm bb with J 10 .

utg limps, mp limps, co raises, utg calls.

utg - superfish at 90/8/0.6.
co - relatively unknown at 50/10/2 over just 10 hands, but he seems quite aggressive.
sb - superfish at 75/0/0.1.

(16 sb, 4 plrs)

sb checks, i bet, utg calls.

(12 bb, 4 plrs)

sb checks, [u]i check, utg checks, co bets, utg calls, co calls.

(25 bb, 4 plrs, 1 all-in)

i bet, ...

i intend to only call a raise back to me.


btw, it should be really evident that this table was AMAZING. two superfish at vp$ip's over 70!!

i had no hesitation in three-betting preflop because i strongly felt that even if my hand was second best, i still had a positive equity edge given that those two superfish were contributing serious dead money to the pot. and frankly, it wasn't hard to play amazing postflop at this table.

i'm mostly thinking about the postflop side of this hand. any thoughts? fwiw, i felt that sb was a worse player than utg, so i tried twice to cut utg off from the hand rather than cut sb off from the hand.

aseem

I realize the players are bad... and I realize I'm not playing these stakes...

But a turn check/raise - cap with a very board-straightening card? Counterfeit possibilities, plus we could be behind to a lot of hands...

I want to wait for a better spot than "middle two pair with 4 cards between K and 8" to play back at Mr. Hyper-aggro OOP. I don't think we fill up enough to beat the hands we're sometimes behind to, even with the dead money.

Not a huge fan of the PF 3-bet, but you probably do have just enough equity to justify it.

Flop is good.

I'm not capping that turn. Call the 3-bet.

I prolly check/call the river after he 3-bets the turn, but I can see a bet/call there too. Not sure there.

Jeff

but i'm following the advice in your signature, TJ!! :-)

usually button is overplaying AA or AK here. i don't think he has a straight, he would need to play AQ or Q9 like that, which doesn't happen all that often. at least this is what i felt.

aseem

what specifically are you worried about, to not cap the turn and to not bet/call the river?

aseem

Losing money?

KK, JJ, TT specifically. I just saw where you wrote he was "quite aggressive" but 10 hands isn't enough for me to deviate from default reads.

Most people are not 3-betting the turn with AA, AK, or QQ in a multiway pot, so I put the brakes on with middle two there.

Jeff

At first this hand made absolutely no sense to me. I thought you flopped an OESD and paired the turn. :?

Now that I've figured out what actually happened in this hand, I have no problems with it.

PF is blah. Some people no like. I like. Doesn't really matter too much.

Flop looks standard.

Turn is the interesting part. While villian may be more likely to play KK/JJ/TT/AQs, there are only a total of 9 combos for these hands, whereas there are 24 combos of AA/QQ/AK. I think we will actually be ahead of villain more often on the turn then we will be behind. But that doesn't even matter. We only have to win at showdown 33% of the time to make our cap profitable. I'd cap.

River is a beautiful blank. Follow through with an extension of the turn.

I like this hand a lot. Well done Aseem.

Of course you know I love the Abdullian style here, but I'm concerned about this theory in such a shorthanded game.

10 hands is way good enough to get a sense of an opponent. i'm not talking about PT numbers here, i'm saying, "i have watched him play for 10 hands, and he seems quite aggressive."

think about this: in a live game, 10 hands can be the equivalent of maybe 20-25 minutes. you don't think you can get a sense for an opponent after 20-25 minutes?


this isn't quite right. a lot of weak players will overplay AA and, to a lesser extent, AK here. mostly just AA, though. QQ never crossed my mind--i don't have a read that he's a maniac (yet).

however, you have a point that WITHOUT a read like "quie aggressive", it is probably better to slow down.


aseem

jim, these two dead-money superfish were INSANELY bad postflop. take a stab as to what utg here took to showdown.... 7 5 . think about that.

preflop expectation isn't just about pot equity... i think it's very much about postflop expectation as well. i am three-betting JTs fearlessly in this hand because i know the hand is still +EV to play with those two horrendous players.

aseem

hee hee (:

Well, my objection was more out of the theoretical rather than practical. I only think, that on general principles, check/raising and capping a 3-bet with two pair on a board this coordinated is theoretically problematic.

I don't particularly think it's likely he had a gutshot and straightened out, but I'm worried that he, or the two cold callers, have enough outs to beat you to make the 4th bet -EV. I'm worried about pair + naked queens, top pair possibly counterfeiting you, possible set or something, et cetera.

At the end of the day, go with the read though. The blank looks to be a good thing based on your read.

hahahahaha

TJ, this doesn't make sense. how can a fourth bet be -EV if the other three bets weren't?

just because someone has outs on me doesn't mean i shouldn't cap.

aseem

I think he means that on the 3rd bet, you had 3 opponents and only needed 25% equity, whereas on the 4th bet you only 2 and needed 33% equity.

I still think there's a ton of value in that cap.

I meant that I like the check/raise and the 3-bet couldn't have been helped, and maybe calling 3 was better than capping.

But for 75o, it seems your read was spot on, though.

you're crazt man...CRAZY!! But I like you

Sense of them? Sure. Can I reliably tell you every player's PF capping range after one rotation? Nope. Can I tell you what they'll 3-bet a turn c/r with? Again, generally not.

There are exceptions, of course, but the player has to be to one extreme or another for it to manifest so obviously.



I'll clarify... most opponents I've played against do not play AA or AK this way. It's definitely the exception and not the rule that a villain would 3-bet a turn c/r with just AA on a scary board like this. If that's your guy and you had a read, great. But more often than not I'm beat when I see that.

CO have AA or did he have 75o too?

Jeff