Villian is 39/7/1.5

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2:club:, T:club:.
2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7:heart:, 2:spade:, Q:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Button calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 5:heart: (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (6.16 BB) 4:diamond: (2 players)

What do you do on this river?

If anything else sucks let me know.

I fold pre flop, who cares if it's sssssssoooooooooooooooooootttttttttttttteeeddd, it's still trash, and if you do call preflop, I fold on the flop if I don't flop 4-flush, two pairs or trips. just my 2 cents

I don't care that it's trash, but I'm very happy it's suited. I'm playing HU vs a probable blind steal getting a little more than 3:1 on my money.

You may be able to justify folding the preflop, but folding this flop is just wrong. Do you think a pf raise always means AA?

I fold PF too. You're OOP with a very marginal hand in a very small pot.

As for the flop, the PFR doesn't mean AA as you say, but even if you've got the best hand on the flop you're what... a 65/35 favorite? If he were a habitual stealer, I'd say get aggressive and hope he folds the turn.

I think once he calls the turn he's commited, but I like bet/fold better than I do check/call on the river once you're there.

Jeff

If I have the best hand on the flop I'm closer to an 80/20 favorite.

I still don't understand what line you're advocating. Are you folding this flop against a non-habitual blind stealer?

Why post in strategy and ask for opinions if all the opinions you get you ridicule and justify your play, Strategy is a place to get several different opinions, then forming your own decisions from what you gathered?

You're at best like 3:1. Against something like A4s you're 71/28. So yeah, it's marginally better than the 65/35, but not much.



Yep.

I'm also folding PF against a non-habitual stealer.

Jeff

I don't mean to ridicule if that's what it seems like.

I am asking for opinions, but if I think they're wrong I will state why. Maybe the the poster will recognize some flaw in their logic and become a better player. Maybe they'll explain their logic in a bit more detail and I can see why I'm wrong and become a better player.

Jeff,

where do you get these equity numbers? You told me before, but I forgot to bookmark the site.

I'm curious as to what my equity vs AK0 would be here. I think it would be closer to 75/25.

I still don't see how you can give up on this flop so easily vs a non-habitual blind stealer. There aren't many hands that this flop connects with.

Sometimes you have a fight against a late position raise, especially short-handed. Otherwise he will raise your BB every time. Plus you'll set yourself up for action when you do get a hand in the BB. It's not always about the cards.

There's a unix package that evaluates poker boards and there's a utility called 'pokenum' in it that calculates this stuff over every possible board. There are probably sites that have a CGI or PHP intereface to pokenum... google can prolly help you there.



You'd be right:

pokenum Ad Ks - Tc 2c -- 7h 2s Qd
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2s Qd 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ad 240 24.24 750 75.76 0 0.00 0.242
Tc 2c 750 75.76 240 24.24 0 0.00 0.758



Because I have 0 visibility with bottom pair crap kicker and the villain can have any two cards. We're 3:1 at best, but there's a ton of hands that have us trounced that villain plays like this. Eg, virtually any pocket pair 33-JJ.

And did I mention we're OOP? I hate that. Where's my fold button.

Now, if he's been stealing from me 2-3 rounds in a row, I know he doesn't have to have a hand and I'm playing back at him like you did. I guess I tend to give people credit until they give me a reason not to do so. That may be our difference here.

Jeff

hey screech,

you should usually bet/fold this river without a read. only check/call if you have a specific read that villian is capable of bluff-raising this river after just calling down with no hand.

aseem

Thanks for the replies.

In this hand I wussed out and checked. Villian checked and turned over AK. I vowed to never stop value betting in 6-max again.

A few hands later, I value betted the shit out of 44 all the way to the river and got paid of by AQ. I love poker.

why not the other way around?
i would have said c/c unless you have reason to think villain will not bluff-raise the river.

you think the majority of online players at 3/6 bluff-raise the river more often than not???

aseem

No, but "more often than not" is not the issue.
An incorrect b/f is much more costly than an incorrect c/c.

The issues with this hand concern how often we are ahead enough to play back at a potential blind-steal, and also for metagame purposes to show that we will defend our BB aggressively, which in turn sets up action when we make a hand from the BB, like another poster said.

With these issues in mind, I certainly like pre-flop, odds are good getting a little more than 3:1 with suiteds against a potential blind-steal. It's useful considering the odds and for the metagame purposes of defending your blind.

I like the flop as well, taking the lead in the hand by check/raising is good for metagame and you are most likely also betting for value against button's near random hand.

Turns good too, for same reasons why the flop check/raise was good.

The river is also a clear bet/fold IMO. We are going to call a bet anyway, best to bet it ourselves, and if we get raised, we lose 1 BB when we would have check/called into a losing hand, because he's probably not betting a hand that doesn't beat us on the river. Each expends 1 BB, and we are getting value from button by betting. Also good for metagame.

Just curious, if we get raised on the turn, are we calling down or folding?

The frequency of an incorrect c/c is much higher than the frequency of an incorrect bet/fold. So yes, "more often than not" is the issue.

Most players will never bluff raise a river after we have shown strength the whole way.

The situation would be a bit different if I had check/called the whole way, and lead at the river. Now, a smart player may see that I'm trying to get value out of a marginal hand and throw in a bluff-raise. But even this doesn't occur all that often.

The only time you should fear a bluff raise is if you're up against either:
1) a smart opponent
2) a maniac
3) a tricky opponent.

actually, i think it's tricky AND either smart or maniac.

there are many smart players who aren't tricky enough to bluff-raise the river. likewise, there are many tricky players who are neither smart nor maniacal enough to bluff-raise the river.

aseem

Just out of curiosity...

Do you fold if he raises the turn? I think I do.

In a heartbeat