pacific 3/6

no individual reads except everyone is loose and passive, no maniacs on this table.

five limpers to me, i raise on the button with 10 9 , bb and limpers call.

(14 sb, 7 plrs) Q Q 7

checked around.

(7 bb, 7 plrs) J

five checks, co bets, i call, mp is only other caller.

(10 bb, 3 plrs) 6

mp checks, co bets, i call, ...

[ i'm not folding, but i really hope that goes without saying. if mp checkraises and co calls, i might three-bet because i have a pretty good flush, and the flush is the most likely holding for mp. if mp checkraises and co three-bets, i am just calling. ]


did i mess up in just calling this river? i really wasn't sure whether to go for one overcall here or to raise or what.

aseem

I don't think this is the place to go for overcalls.

You have a hand that is likely the best, with only 1 opponent behind you. He may or may not call one, he may or may not call 2. But at least if you raise you will likely get another bet from co.

Raise and hope the guy calls 2 cold.

Just cold calling would work if this pot was 4 or 5 way but with just 1 person possibly overcalling I think you're going to have him call 2 cold way more often then you run into a full house or higher flush and get 3 bet.

even better, you'll probably get 3 bet by Qx a bunch of the time. mmm, free money.

Raising the turn makes the river play a lot easier.

good luck.

why?

i'm not cleaning up any outs really, especially against a slowplayed queen.

aseem

p.s. good to see you back on the forums. :-)

why?

i'm not cleaning up any outs really, especially against a slowplayed queen.

Well, you'll fold a lot of jacks here actually, so you are cleaning up outs a lot of the time. You'll also have a better idea what the player behind you his doing on the river given his turn action. If he three-bets the turn your river play is a lot more straightforward.

You have substantial equity on this turn in most cases, and while raising does inflate the pot somewhat it makes making a play on a marginal river, say 10d a lot more likely to pay off.

good luck.

smash, on a vaguely related note, have you read izmet fekali's stuff at all?

aseem

I was going to post, why not raise the turn with an OESFD? If you can crack trip Q's, I'd think that's pretty good implied odds, and no way he's not calling the turn. He's probably not folding QQJJ either.
Also, if you raise the turn and the CO checks to you on the river, you can probably feel more confident in your 10 high flush.
EDIT: man, I gotta type faster... two posts in the time it took me to post.

Aseem, you played this exactly right.
No doubt.

Why?
First of all NEVER ram and jam a draw if you might lose if you hit. Turn raise is out.

Second, the river call is great. What is MP likely to have given the call on the turn. Unless you have some other read on him, he may very well have a flush draw as well. If it's a small flush, you'll get his overcall. If it's a big one he raises, you call and you save a bet from your possible river-raise. It seems that MP's passive play thus far only gives you reason to believe that it is likely he will fold when facing two bets cold. Of course this could be modified if you've seen him be a donk before. It seems to me that by raising you stand to win the same amount by risking losing more.

If he's on a flush draw, he's more likely to have a smaller one than a larger one. If it's a small flush, we get his overcall even if we raise. No loose passive is ever going to fold a draw he's been chasing when he hits it.

We don't stand to win the same amount by raising. We stand to win more.

It's a close decision but obviously you can win more with the raise, but how much more?
with raise +n/-m
without +x/-y
I'm claiming that the ratio |x/y| is greater than |n/m| but likely actions of the opponents must be considered and these ratios cannot be accurate when calculated by a bystander. It's certainly a close one, though.

Why not face mp2 with 2 cold on the turn? It seems to me like a turn raise gives you more information about how good a straight or flush hitting would be on the river. Then you know whether to raise or not.

Well you won't always hit your hand. I think the purpose of raising the turn would be to clean up your T/9 outs, or to make the river play easier if you do happen to hit a T/9. (I could be wrong though, because I still don't see how raising hte turn is all that good). The only hand that we really hope folds is AT.

Also, I don't think you're folding any jacks in this loose-passive game. Even bad players will think you probably would have bet the flop in last position if you had something. I think just calling the turn with the intention of picking up hopeless calls behind us will make us the most money.

i've been thinking a lot about this and i'm still not quite grasping it.

seven-way pot on the turn, checked to the player on your right who bets, you would raise with this draw with no overcards?

aseem

I'm pretty torn here.

A raise can quite possibly fold Jx here and even if you get 3 bet by Qx you still have plenty of outs to win. The fact that so many players are in the hand is what gets me. If we raise on the turn we either want to get called by 2 or more people or have no one call.

So just a weird hand. If you think you can fold a jack i guess its worth raising but in a 7 way pot I just think someone is going to have a Q way to often to make this profitable.

I think you're wrong about the queen. I don't think someone has one all that often. But I do think that a jack at this table is calling.

why not??

everyone loves to go for checkraises, and i disappointed them by checking the flop.

now a lot of people will attempt another one here thinking that "no way it gets checked around twice". OR, they will bet like the cutoff did.

just from a card frequency perspective, there's a pretty high chance that there is a queen out there (somewhere near 30% if i'm estimating correctly, maybe higher).

aseem

You have [EDIT:14, forgot to take out the 7 ] outs to beat trip Q's. There is at least the possibility of folding a Jack, and you act right after the first post flop bet (the CO turn bet). I'd think a raise would get most people to drop (it turned out that just the one bet did).
Ax or Kx may not call two cold, if they are out there. A10 shouldn't call for the GS, but if he does, one of his outs is counterfeited. AK probably won't fold because people are donks, but calling two cold with that would be stupid (and you hold one of his outs).

Well if there's a 30% chance of a queen being out, what do you think the chance of someone checking it through twice are? I think it's pretty low. Maybe 30%. So now there's a 9% chance of a queen being out (unless of course CO has one). I have no idea what this means.
:?

Since my brain isn't working that well, could you explain to me how you get that 30% number? I actually did very well in stats.... :cry:

it's actually more like 45%

1- [(45/47)(44/46)(43/45)....(34/36)]

Asxs and Ksxs will always call two cold. I think the same applies for lower flush draws.

I still don't understand why raising this turn is good. I really don't think these type of players are going to fold Jx for two cold in this pot.

screech, we agree that raising the turn isn't good. i don't know why we are arguing.

my only point is that i think a queen being out there is very possible.

aseem

I'm not arguing. I was just trying to figure out how you get that 30% and how it relates to the chance a queen is out there. Then I started rambling nonsense and just confused myself.

Your flush isn't bad, but I wouldn't call it good either - Excluding AsKs (since he limped PF), there are 12 ways MP could have a better flush, and 10 ways he could have a worse one; also Axs, Kxs are more likely to have played the hand than unconnected xxs.

I think you should just raise the river and call if either opponent 3-bets.

MNG,

there's actually 15 ways he could have a worse one.

Wow, I thought it the ratio of worse:better flushes would be higher than 15:13. Especially since we have to discount hands like 72s.



Thanks zebra.