I was out in Vegas this past weekend and I played in the first event at Bally's which was a $300+30 NLH tournament. Here is a hand I thought might interest some of you guys. Villain had been playing aggressively when involved, but he hadn't played more than a few hands.

2nd Level, Blinds @ 25/50.
Avg. stack ~ 1700
Villain, UTG+2 - Doug Lee ~ (t2500)
Hero, CO ~ (t2000), Dealt K K

Preflop:
2 folds, Villain raises to t150, 2 folds, Hero re-raises to t450, 3 folds, Villain calls.

Flop:

9 4 2

Villain checks, Hero bets t500, Villain raises all-in, Hero ???

I'm paying off the Aces or set if they are there, especially with a flush draw that wins against 1/2 the pocket Aces that he could have.

The tightest (and worst case) range of hands I could put him on is 9s, Ts, Js, Qs, Ks, As, AQc, AJc. Thats 33 hands, youre ahead of 18 of them with about 80% chance of winning, tied with 1 of them, behind 12 of them with about 20% chance of winning, and drawing almost dead to 2 of them. Thats a coin flip at the very worst, and there are probably some other holdings he could have that youre ahead of.

This analysis is very in-depth, so hang on.

I'll analyze step by step here...

Doug had a good sized stack, 33 rounds of betting worth, so he wasn't really under any pressure to make a move. Doug Lee is notorious, however, for being able to make moves. Hence, why he is called the Canadian Super Bomber.

Doug raised from 3rd position, which puts his hand range near the top. There is no apparent reason for him to think that you are just making a move, so his call of the re-raise means that he has a very good hand. With just under 2:1 odds and you representing a big hand, his hand range is AK, AQ suited, or a pair higher than 10s.

^This stat is not certain, however. It depends alot on YOUR table image. How many hands have you been playing, what hands have everyone seen you play, and how often do you bet? If you are viewed as an aggressive player, Doug would make the call with a wider range of hands, and be more prone to moving in after the flop. If you have a conservative table image, however, the hand range narrows significantly.

You bet out on the flop for about half the pot... a standard size for a continuation bet. Now Doug knows that you didn't flop the flush. He is putting you on a higher pair than the board.

Now here is where it gets tricky... by check/raising, he is representing either the flush, or a pair higher than the board. You have 1050 chips left, and the pot is now 2725. Your pot odds are 2.6:1, so that strongly favors calling. But before I suggest anything, I'll look at what Doug might have made the play with.

1. We know he's not on a stone bluff, because he called a large re-raise before the flop. This means that his odds of having the flush are very low. The only hand you have to worry about with the flush is A/Q of clubs.

2. You have put in almost half of your stack already, so the odds of a sucessful bluff are very small. This favors strongly that he got a piece of the flop.

3. He didn't bet out, he elected to check-raise. Why would he do this? If he had trips or an overpair without a club, there is no way he would have checked it with those 3 clubs sitting out there. Which leaves us with the following hand range: A:club:/A, A:club:/K, A:club:/Q:club:, Q:club:/Q. I'm not putting him on trip 9's, 4's, or 2's, because he probably would have folded them to a re-raise, and wouldn't have checked on the flop. There is a slight chance that he is bluffing, but it is very small. I'll give it a 5% chance.

These guesses are VERY dependant on your past playing style. If you are viewed as an aggressive player, he is much more likely to be re-raising you with a draw or a small overpair with a club. If you are viewed as a conservative player, you are in serious trouble. I'm assuming you're tight/aggressive, so that is where I'm getting the hand range from. Anyway, back to the analysis. I'll move on to how many combinations of each hand there are, and your odds of beating them.

hands that beat you:
A:club:/A - 3 ways (7%)
A:club:/Q:club: - 1 way (3%)

hands that don't beat you:
Q:club:/Q - 3 ways (93%)
A:club:/K - 2 ways (56%)
Bluff - 0.5 ways

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:

He has you beat, and you lose the hand. (40%)

He has you beat, but you win the hand anyway (2%)

You have him beat, and you win the hand (42%)

You have him beat, but you lose the hand anyway (16%)

This means that you will win the hand 44% of the time, and you need 1.27:1 pot odds to call the bet. You are being offered almost 3:1 odds, so this is an easy call IMO. If you're beat, so be it. Calling is the mathematically correct play. Unless you're about 80% sure that he has pocket aces or the nut flush, the call is the right play. But Doug Lee is an aggressive player, so I don't think you can give him that much credit. He would make this move with more than just the nuts.

Nice analysis Cheetah.

You should post more

you have what, 1o50 left?

Very suspicious c/r all-in there, but I still think you have to call. I agree completely with cheetah's analysis.

Given the pot odds and Doug Lee's reputation, I call. Very interested to hear what happened though.

I bet you called and you were beat. Not sure if it was a set or a flopped flush though.

well, usually when someone posts a thread here it is because they either made a call and were beat, or made a tough lay-down and are unsure about if it was correct. I'm guessing that mk didn't call and win the hand, though.

Good analysis, cheetah. I went through the same line of thought while I was in the hand. I thought for a good couple minutes before making a decision.

I tried as hard as I could to put him on a range. After he called my preflop raise and then c/r'ed all-in, I thought I had a pretty good idea of what type of hand he might have. My range for him was (AA-77), (AK-AJ). And after contemplating where I would stand against that range, I reasoned that I had to call. The pot odds I was receiving were incredibly favorable. For some reason, as I was trying to narrow the range, I thought he was making this play with the naked A - a hand like A Q or something, and I couldn't pass up a 70/30 edge.

He flipped up A J for a pure bluff. A fourth club fell on the turn and I doubled up.

I just wanted to post this hand because I really like Doug's play. If our stacks had been a bit deeper he would've had a lot more fold equity. As it was, I really couldn't get away from it because I had put half my stack in. Something to think about for later tournaments.

awesome, nice one.