this hand was from a week ago, but it's still kinda bugging me

stakes 1-2 pl; 7 or 8 handed

me: ~550ish
villain: ~600ish

me and the villain have been playing at the table for about 3 hours now. he's an aggressive player, but seems to be in control in every hand he's entered. i haven't played many pots against him, and he doesnt seem to be entering into too many pots where i've raised pf

im the button, he's utg+1

dealt to me: k q j 9

villain limps, mp1 limps, i raise to 10 on the button, both blinds fold and both limpers call

flop (pot = 33) q 10 3
villain: pots
mp1: folds
me: re-pot
villain: calls

i decide to repot w/ my huge straight draw and my pair of q's (which means he probably doesnt have top set)

turn (pot = 297) j
this seems like a great card for me. not only have i completed one of my straights, but i now also have the second nut flush draw and top two pair

however, the villain bets 200 into me
what's my move? (i have around 400 left)

wow, that is tough.

Can you not put him on these?

Ah, K, Qh, T. You are dead to a jack in that case.

Ah, K, Qh, Q has you drawing dead.

A, K, Q, T leaves you drawing to the jack(s) and the hearts.

Ah, K, J, xh has you drawing for the fullhouse.

I mean doesn't this bet sound like one of the above hands? Maybe he has the Ah, K with no flush, but bets the pot with current nuts and nut flush card. If he "likely" has any of the hands above then you really need to fold.

What range did you put him on?

AK?
AK plus 2 pair?
AK plus trips?
Ah with K?
AK with nut flush draw?
Trips?
K9 with nut flush draw?

i put him on a huge draw on the flop, not a set. i figured something like AKJx w/ x being any card. i was about 80% sure of this, but i didnt know whether i had about 12 outs w/ the full house/flush/chop pot draw or just around 4-5 outs w/ the house/chop pot.

i wasnt contemplating raising, but i didnt know whether to call the river in hope of improving (or having the board pair the 10 or 3 and stealing the pot if he checks to me) or folding my huge draw.

there was also the 20% of me that knew that the villain was good enough to play the jack scare card (w/o holding ak) in hopes that i held a set and would fold to his bet.

[quote=Davin]
i put him on a huge draw on the flop, not a set. i figured something like AKJx w/ x being any card. i was about 80% sure of this, but i didnt know whether i had about 12 outs w/ the full house/flush/chop pot draw or  just around 4-5 outs w/ the house/chop pot.

i wasnt contemplating raising, but i didnt know whether to call the river in hope of improving (or having the board pair the 10 or 3 and stealing the pot if he checks to me) or folding my huge draw.  

there was also the 20% of me that knew that the villain was good enough to play the jack scare card (w/o holding ak) in hopes that i held a set and would fold to his bet.[/quote]

I think with so many other nut hands and draws out there it is becoming silly to call that. If he has AK (which you say is maybe 80% of the time) then you have:

up to 9 hearts for the second nut flush (Q hearts gives you a straight flush)

Any Q gives you the nuts

Any J likely gives you at least a split, likely the best FH

Ace gives you a tie usually(unless it is a heart, then its the nut flush)

Seems like pretty slim pickens to put in 200$ with the hope of extracting $200 more from your opp if a card above comes or you catch him in the 20% bluff phase. I mean you would be forced to call your last $200 into the pot of ~$900 if a brick comes, just because of pott odds for a bluff.


You didn't mention AK with an ace high flush draw, that is what kills your hand and is ultimately why folding is the best option here IMO. Not to mention that you are a dog to AK anyways. I am guessing you folded too, but were left to wonder if you had the best hand or would have made it on the river... well being left to guess is difficult, but you can try and live with it because of the +EV that goes along with it.
[/quote]

I cannot call. If you do, and win unimproved, you have nads... but based on your thinking and what you have put him on, I say you laid it down and we never know.

Made second nuts, second nut redraws always sound WAAAYYY better than they are.

I think you have to fold. If you put him on a big draw, chances are pretty good he has some of your outs in his hand. He could have made the nut straight, and/or hold the nut flush draw. I don't think your non nut straight is worth much here. At this point, a call would be hoping a non flush, small card comes and that your King high straight holds (and let me tell you, I have been beaten with that so many times, I won't play that draw with a 9 in my hand unless I also have an Ace very often). Add in maybe 2-3 outs to filling up your FH.