good fold or pro fold ?


I'm in UTG+2 with AA

Preflop
I open, MP (78% VPiP calls), BB calls (only played 30 hands so far, 7% VPiP)

Flop (6.5 SB, 3 players)
6:heart: 8:club: 9:club:
BB bets, I raise, MP calls, BB 3 Bets, I fold.

I'm seeing RIO in this hand.

very uncommon for me to Raise/Fold as you know.

thanks for input.

BB three bets with enough hands you crush (KK-TT) to warrant hanging around, imo. I'm probably calling down unless the turn action is crazy heavy or if a wretched card falls.

i'm assuming you don't have the A ?

I really might consider calling down here unless some kind of awful card hits in which the flush draw and straight draw both hit. If this guy is a tag he could easily be making this bet with overs and a flush draw or a lower pp. Getting somewhere around 14:1 on my call I think at the very least i'd see a turn and how the bb acts.

right, A:diamond: A:spade:

Raise/folding is uncommon because the odds are so heavily skewed towards at least CALLING that it rarely happens. I don't like it, frankly.

I think you can be up against two pair (which we have hella outs against) often enough to necessitate seeing the river. Moreso if we have Ac.

I think I like capping the flop (to make MP fold, and possibly get a free card), and calling down the BB if he has the cojones to lead into us. We have position on him, things change drastically if we can hit an ace, and we can counterfeit two pair.

I think we're too good to raise/fold here... and I think we need to see a river with this.

Is there a 3rd option? :wink:

Vs someone with 7% vpip even over only 30 hands the likelyhood that he would have called a raise with 98, 96, or 86 is pretty unlikely. I'd say if he has us beat right now its going to be with a set.

By "Pro Fold" I mean the kind only those that proclaim to have excellent reading skills make.. laying down hands in big pots; but really, it's just weak tight. Not "Pro" as in +EV.

Maybe.

I usually peel here.

I think there was an example in HPFAP similar to this.

The board was T98 with two hearts. They recommend check/folding your aces if you don't have heart.

T98 is quite different than this hand as this one has a gap. I'm with TJ, you have someone who called so your odds are improved (now 11-1 I believe) and I have to think you're probably ahead at this point.

Furthermore, I enjoy flop aggression under certain circumstances, yet here I have to say I dislike the raise. You can be near certain MP is going to call with his VPiP and you can also be fairly certain BB is going to re-raise you as he has a low VPiP and he has opened. Considering this, your flop raise is actually very bad if you are considering folding to a three-bet. It seems like you're throwing one BB into the dark abyss where the money of poker players who forget their reads go.

Play back at them on the turn, if at all. Then you might be able to get MP to fold for two BB, but probably not. Your hand is likely good enough to see a showdown, if a raising war doesn't happen when a scare card (7 or any club) hits the turn.

Guinevar

You're right. I missed the gap.

yeah, I think my raise and the Callnig Station behind me made the pot "too big to fold" ; however, based on the BB's actions and relative tightness I figured too much chance I'm already killed by BB or dodging a lot of cards on two streets.

I didn't want to fold to the first bet, thinking it could just be TP or a draw, so I wanted to isolate BB. Apparently Calling Station did what Calling Station do. Then BB shows a lot of strength.

This started as an Isolation/Value Raise but turned into a raise for info and folding in a big pot. Two things I'm not adept at.

What do you think of capping the flop?

a) it probably makes MP fold
b) we might get a free card
c) if we don't get a free card, we can see the showdown for 2 BB total
d) I think it's better than folding AA getting 6:1, in position, with a chance at the above.

That's all.

I don't really like caping the flop.

a) MP probably won't fold. Look at his VPIP. Look at the board. He only has to call 2 more bets.

Do we really want to take the free card if we're given it?

c) What do you think villian has if he leads the turn after we cap. Should we really continue here UI?

d) I agree. I'm not folding on the flop.

ok...i gotta get back to work and your posts distract me! :-)

BB had 99.

Learn to make raises for info and Pro-Style folds you donkeys!



ps: 110 hands 79% w$Sd% that's solid poker :roll:

So you're not folding the flop. I'm assuming that means you're calling the 3-bet.

Are you calling down to the river?

If you are, don't forget about MP. I just don't want to get whipsawed if MP hits his huckle draw on the turn and I've called 1 BB and he raises behind. That's why I want him to fold.

But I tend to agree with you that he's not folding for the cap.

I guess that, bottom line, it sucks to run an overpair into a set.

I think I raise/fold the turn.

Sexy. I hadn't thought of that.

sexy? Learn how to fold like a pro!

Raise/Fold turn costs an extra 1/2 BB.

You're assuming that we'll end up folding as well on the turn. Even with a set of 9's, he could bet the turn and then NOT 3-bet us. If we plan on raising anyway, we're allowed to HIT the turn, raise, and change the plan to raise/raise. Or get a free river and make him think we play aces bad.

How often do we end up not folding on the turn because of HIM slowing down, how often do we get the river checked to us, and how often do we outdraw two pair or a set, our most probable Villain holdings? And for all that, the pot is bigger when we do win.

Think of extending the concepts of "raise the turn when marginal for a free showdown."

And he probably doesn't 3-bet the turn with anything but a straight, and we have outs on anything but a straight.

Plays like that TJ won't get you a 79% W$SD %







(sw)

Here in the south we don't trust computers or programs, so I have no idea how often I win at showdown because I don't have pokertracker.

Not having pokertracker has made me adapt in very unorthodox ways, though. I have nearly mastered the art of "knowing EVERY SINGLE TIME" how weak they are by how many seconds it takes them to act." I can even tell if someone's multitabling or not.

If my opponents knew that and took 15 seconds on every decision it'd REALLY mess with my head, lol.