akishore
Wednesday, October 26th, 2005, 10:02 AM
QUOTE (screech)
QUOTE (akishore)
QUOTE (screech)
I would fold if CO bet the river. I would c/r if button bet.
that be spewing yo
just call dawg
aseem
We have a good chance to be ahead of button.
CO is likely ahead of us if he calls, but he will probably fold for 2.
The pot is big.
How is this a spew?
you are overestimating your fold equity versus a better hand against CO wayyy too much in relation to the size of the pot.
what better hand is he folding to two cold here? certainly not two pair or better. a jack? not in my experience.
you are making quite a big assumption if you just say that CO is ahead of us if he calls. he could easily just have a busted draw.
and you also overstimate the chance that you're ahead of button. a lot of players in my experience play hands that beat us on the river the same way throughout the hand (some even play QQ/KK/AA this way, fearing two pair, but betting the river when you check just because). the 10 also easily hits KQ, and you're losing extra money to that.
the pot is big, but it's not nearly big enough to justify pulling this move. when i pull moves like that, it's with reliable reads but it's also in considerably bigger pots where the play has to work less often to be profitable.
CO isn't folding many better hands at all, and he is often folding to one if he has a missed draw anyway, and he will often overcall one with worse hands. button also is less likely to bet as a bluff than he is for value considering how passively he has played this. a player who fits the profile of a river bluffer here tends to raise somewhere in the hand as well (they tend to be aggressive).
i really strongly feel c/r a button bet here is huge spewing.
aseem