3/6 five

utg folds, i open in CO with Q J , button folds, sb three-bets, bb calls two cold, i call.

sb is a NIT/ROCK/TIGHT-ASS.

(9 sb) Q J 8

sb bets, bb folds, i raise, sb three-bets, i call (y'know, intend to raise almost any turn).

(7.5 bb) Q

sb bets, i raise, sb calls.

(11.5 bb) A

sb thinks for eight hours and checks, i ...

aseem



EDIT: the river was an A . that's an important part of this hand because it means opponent no longer has A K in their range of flop three-betting hands.

...have a boat and bet-raise-call.

why is this tough?

AQ raises turn..

i don't get the question. :?

With the river change i don't like the river. That really drops the 2 possible hands your opponent could have to AA in which he just 2 outered you and KK with or without the d.

AA doesn't three-bet the turn. this person's three-betting range from the SB is extremely small. their three-betting range on the flop makes it smaller yet.

aseem

i just noticed that i mistyped the river. my bad.

aseem

fwiw, i would say that this person three-bets AA-KK from the small blind preflop, and *maybe* AK, and QQ to a lesser extent still.

on the flop, i thought AA/KK is most likely, then AdKd/QQ and rarely AdKx or AxKd.

since QQ is impossible on the turn, and now AdKd and AdKx are impossible on the river, that means opponent usually only has AA or KK.

aseem

lol, i didn't like the river either!

also, i'm wondering how often KK without the diamond pays off a river bet. i mean, it's hard to imagine many people folding to one bet here, but i think this specific person *might*. i really have no whether the sb will fold KK without a diamond here to a bet, but i think it should be estimated as a small percentage, maybe 10%? this also changes things because then a value bet loses more value.

aseem

you have perfect reads.
you are good at math
calculate the odds and decide what best river play is
let us know.

we'll be over here.

Next time fold pf since this guy hade you horribly dominated, apparently, with your read.

lol, i can feel the truckloads of sarcasm dripping from your post.

fwiw, i actually did seriously consider folding to the preflop three-bet, but thought that wouldn't be right. i figured i would just play postflop really cautiously if it didn't hit me in the face.

ok, quick math.

AA - 3 combos
KK - 6 combos

but if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA.

i could value bet if i fold to a checkraise, but bet/folding is so wrong here with a hand with as much showdown value as this one.

on the other hand, do i get checkraised by KdKx here? i don't think i do, but assign it a small percentage, and a value bet might be +EV.

i really have no idea, and that's why i posted it.

aseem

but if villian folds KK even 1% of the time, a value bet is -EV assuming i get checkraised by AA.

huh?

He'd have to not call your bet a lot more than 1% to make it -EV
What am I missing?

Is he checking AA here?
Isn't he a straight forward (rock) player
So if he checks AA for fear of QQ, he's not c/r'ing.

At least BET.
If raised and your reads are that solid, call. My reads are never THAT solid.
[/b]

Bet/call.

Easy peasy one two threasy.

Not betting is weak. Even if it did turn out he has AA.

we gotta be good here 67% of the time to bet. with combos of AA/KK, we are good exactly 67% of the time, which means a bet is 0 EV. so if he folds KK even 1% of the time, a bet is -EV. does that make sense?


tight doesn't always = straightforward. and i don't think the person is checking in fear of QQ, lol... they're checking to checkraise me (if they have AA, i mean).

she had Q7o, she was on mega raging tilt (i had no idea) and was looking to check/raise-cap me if i bet out. i missed so much value!!!

jk.

aseem

you make me smile at work..that's tough to do

The problem here is that if he has AA he is checkraising costing you 2 bb while you gain 1 bb vs KK. Imo I dont think you possibly get a call in this spot by KK no diamond. So as weird as this seems having a boat I might just check behind.

Gaining one from KK with the Kd. Losing 2 v AA so just not +ev.

He wouldn't 3-bet AQ vs. a CO raise 5-handed? In that case, I'd bet/call. 3 ways he can have AA, 6 ways he can have KK, 3 ways he can have AxKd. I suspect his pause means he has the Kd.

no, i don't think they three-bet AQ. in fact, she berated me earlier for three-betting her with AQ. i think her words were "lol, how typical... raise with AQ off, and party rewards you."

and i don't think they go that crazy postflop with AxKd.

i also think the pause is more significant than people are really giving it credit for, but i could be wrong.

aseem

I don't see someone pausing with the Kd. I mean if the diamond hits this is a pretty straight forward spot to bet/call. With AA i think someone would be more likely to try and checkraise here.

yes I now get the 1% -EV thing..never thought of it like that.

BET!

lol! it's like you see the logic of checking, but choose to just blatantly ignore it.

this isn't a mechanical game! this isn't a "this is the easiest bet of my life." i'm showing you that the obvious play can easily be wrong here.

aseem

BET

If she has KxKd, there are only 4 hands Aseem could reasonably hold that she could beat (the four possible KQ's). It would be a pretty straightforward check/call, IMO, but she might have to think back through the hand to come to that conclusion.

you either bet this right now!; or never tell me to value bet TOP Pair on the river again.

Aseem,

You say that if he folds KK 1% of the time, then the bet has no value.

This is correct if you plan on calling a raise.

According to your read, you should never call a raise because it always means AA.

So a bet/fold would be more profitable than checking behind or bet/call.

I hope this is sarcasm.
If it is, it's epic!
If it's not..it's epic too..but in a bad way.

if i bet/fold, i only have to be good 50% of the time.

but, i think folding a boat here is a huge mistake personally. that risk is so dangerous that checking behind with a hand that has monstrous showdown value is much better than bet/folding, imo.

also, i don't know if my read is off somewhere. i also think that if he checkraises me with Kdx then bet/folding is a big mistake. i don't know if he does, but that's the point.

aseem

It doesn't matter how strong your hand is; it matters how likely your hand is to be stronger than your opponent's range of calling hands (as well as your position). Against a calling station who has just called the flop and turn, top pair is often best. In this spot,against this villain a full house might not be best.

I do think it's a bet, but I think it's a lot closer than you're giving it credit for.

I would never bet/fold here.

I was just pointing out that if you can pinpoint your opponents holdings down to either AA/KK, then bet/fold is probably best.

The fact is that you can't say he has precisely AA/KK. These are the most likely hands, and he probably holds 1 of these to combos more than 80% of the time. Some of the time he will have a hand you don't expect him to have. Either because he was feeling frisky, had a friend sit in for him, or whatever.

I bet this river. And reluctantly call.

That's my point too.

I think you get called here by KK, c/red by KK, or called by a weaker holding you never expected him to have often enough to make bet/call the best play.

let's get one thing straight.

i'm NOT saying that betting is -EV or betting is +EV.

i'm posting because i don't know, and i think it's really close.

y'all are attacking me with what could basically be "turn pro/make millions".

i know my read isn't 100% accurate (it's only 99%), but i think boiling villian's hands down to AA/KK here is extremely reasonable (oxymoron?).

i also am not 100% sure of whether he checkraises with KdKx or just check/calls, and i also don't know whether he pays me off with KxKx no diamond or folds to a bet. in fact, i have no idea.

anyway, i gotta run to class then jazz, etc. etc. i'll be back in the evening.

aseem

good.
I was worried.

If I have to 3-bet/cap when it's obvious that my opponent just hit his 1-outer to outboat me on the river, then you have to do the same here, Aseem.

All kidding aside, is AxKd really not in his range? Is he so tight that he won't 3-bet that flop with the 2nd nut flush draw+gutshot+2 tainted overs?

NO READ IS THAT GOOD!

BET CALL AT LEAST!

you really check here? I don't see how checking with a full house is correct unless you just got horribly counterfeited. I've gotten gun shy a few times with low boats fearing better ones, it usually results in missed bets. Full houses are somewhat rare, bet them.

I can't remember...is this the first time you tried to lay down QJsuited when it was the 2nd or 3rd nuts?
Honestly the three bet preflop was probably a move simply to make sure the BB doesn't call with any two cards (probably from a mid pocket pair.) given the three bet on the flop I think hooks have to go into consideration here. Given the 4th diamond on the river you can't know what to expect. From his POV, he may be thinking jacks full is good thinking that he'll check-raise your flush on the river, he might have been worried about AQ and is setting up to check call.
All I'm pointing out is that although it would be nifty if he turned out to have AA it is unreasonable to think he has it often enough to slow down. I say bet, cap. Not betting is lost money.

but didn't you see how strong Asseem's read is!

Capping is pure spewing i tell you..spewing! :roll:

lol, cheap shot!

i was stuck $400 that night and was taking some really sick beats and just running into terrible luck. earlier that night, i had the third nut flush all-in versus the second nut flush and the nut flush. by the time that QJs hand happened, i was clearly affected by the money and didn't want to lose another $100.

clearly a terrible terrible fold and it's what i still consider to be the worst hand of my life.



look, i'm not trying to be like phil hellmuth (as actuary thinks), but i knew what i knew. i was at the table for a good hour+, and i had a good feel for the players, especially the villian.

i saw her cold-call from the small blind my CO raise and she had QQ one hand. she doesn't just three-bet with any two cards she's willing to play. she was also very passive, and would cap preflop with KK then check/call it down when an A flopped--not even a continuation bet!

you guys can rip me apart all you want for being too passive here, but i was confident in my read. i supplied my read, and it's still not such an easy "math problem" as actuary has claimed it should be if my read is that solid. the point is that i don't know how often she pays me off with KK no diamond, or how many times she checkraises me with KdKx, etc.

my two options are check and bet/call, and i just think it's much closer than y'all are giving it credit for.


aseem

yes



Ok, maybe it's a liiiiitttle close. But it's still a bet/call.

since you guys seem to have so much trouble believing me when i supply a read, and keep trying to argue that i'm putting too much emphasis on an inaccurate read...





aseem

But does she have the cajones to check the aces full to you?

no idea.

aseem

I have a question now that I don't think has been brought up...what do we think it means that she took forever to check to you?

In my opinion it more often means a lack of strength. I think a check-raise would have happened fairly quickly to trap you on the continuation instead of letting you think it through. I could be wrong.

yes, i think i agree with you. so the pause should make us bet more often.

aseem

I'm assuming she flipped over QQ you showed your QJ and the floor was called because there are 5 queens in the deck.

Honestly though I think this is a check. Only hand calling your river bet that you have beat is KK with the diamond. AA has you beat and is raising, KK no diamond is folding. So theoretically if you can put someone on either AA or KK here its a river check.

I've seen palyers with 123 hands and 1 prior raise, riase KQ off from
UTG+1.... glad I called with 99.

Aseem,
I am amazed by your multi-tasking abilities. No way my brain could handle that.

Speedz has a great point: She doesn't seem to fit the profile of smoeone who's going to c/r AA. She seems cautious enuf to c/c them (wow!)..but not c/r. You know that she can't hold the Stone Nuts.. another reason for you to bet.

Actuary is just jealous he can't have that good of reads but also relieved because I'd never be able to multi-table (eventually) if I relied that much on them after 1 hour in a LIMIT game.

yeah, i've come to decide that this should be a bet.

i don't think the chances of her folding KK without a diamond are that big... i think even the tightest players will call out of frustration or just BECAUSE. i also think that there is a decent chance that she checkraises me with the king of diamonds for the "nut" flush. both these factors combined make the bet lean more towards +EV than -EV.

i also think her super-long pause means more that she didn't like that card than it does that she loved it and wants to checkraise.

the results were that i thought for a long time and decided to check behind. most likely, in the heat of the moment it was a "monsters under the bed" symptom, mostly because she was such a nit. she turned over KK no diamond, and i took it down. i don't know if she would have called a bet--most likely she would have because almost no one folds to one river bet heads-up there.

and actuary, i was only two-tabling at the time, i think, or maybe three-tabling. and people have a big misconception that multi-tabling means you completely ignore reads--it's not like that. it's really easy to pay attention to any table when you're not playing in a hand, or to always scan a table when someone goes to showdown, quickly take a look at the hand's action and get a quick read, e.g. "really loose preflop!" "raises weak aces" "plays any suited" "checkraises turn with air" "caps any pair" etc.

this particular opponent stuck out in my mind because of what i already wrote. i was shocked that she just cold-called out of the SB with Q-Q, and more importantly, because we engaged in conversation in the chatbox when i three-bet AQo out of the SB to her LP raise (not realizing at the time that she was a rock) and managed to crack her KK.

that hand also stuck out in my mind because she was the last preflop aggressor (she capped with kings), but when the flop came Axx and i checked to her, she checked behind. i then wasn't sure if she was slowplaying AA/AK, so i decided to check the turn again, probably calling a bet because of her preflop strength and my lack of a read, and she checked again! i then value bet the river and she called with KK.... talk about being super-tight/passive!

anyway, i didn't mean this post to be a dumb exercise in "look, i'm brilliant at making reads", but i thought this was a genuinely interesting turn situation against a rock who could have easily two-outtered me here. i think it was much closer than some of you give it credit for, but i feel that i still should have value bet.

thanks for the replies.

aseem

I'll say.
Checking TP2K two rounds.



ps.
I didn't mean to not use reads at all if you multi-table, of course, just mine will never be good enough (I hope) to check in these spots.


You know I like breaking your balls right?

i don't really want to get in a big argument about the way i played that hand.

the decisions run really close together, and in my games and in my experience, someone who caps preflop then checks an ace-high flop is very often getting fancy with AK or AA. it's possible villian is loose and has AJ here, for example, but with AQ in the middle, it's close (with AJ, i'd say the turn is a clear check/call... with AK it's a clear check/raise). it's also possible that villian is super passive with KK here, but that is the case less often than the previous, in my experience.

no big deal, but i think the turn is close between check/calling and check/raising. i don't think betting is that great because you lose value from some pocket pairs that might fold here, and it also sucks extremely hard if you're raised. betting isn't terrible, but i think it's the worst of the three. all three decisions run really close together though.

i hope we at least both agree that the flop is a clear check/call.



of course!

aseem