Party Poker 10 handed 5/10 Limit Hold'em
Hero is MP3 with TT

4 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, button calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls

Flop (10.5 SB): 8-6-T rainbow
MP2 checks, Hero bets, button calls, MP2 calls

Turn (6.75 BB): Q
MP2 checks, Hero bets, button calls, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, button folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls

River (15.75 BB): 2
MP2 bets, Hero...

MP2 is a very solid player. Constantly multi-tabling and usually up. MP2 won't play like this without a solid hand. His turn cap has me nervous.

Folding is obviously out of the question. Do you call or raise?

Don't you think villain raises QQ on the flop?

EDIT: Matt Damon

I can't see him check/calling QQ on that flop and not capping pre. Im rasing because I think a lower set is much more likely.

What about 9J? Call, wish you could fold.

I don't think a solid player would cap with AQ OOP on the turn.

I also don't think a solid player would raise PF with any 2 cards that make 2 pair (QTs maybe) or a straight.

He has either QQ, 88, 66 or QTs.

He might raise 88/66 on the flop. Then again, maybe not. Same goes for capping with QQ preflop/not raising it on the flop. He'd also probably lead QTs into you.

Strange hand. No matter what he has he's played it oddly.

88/66/QTs - 9 combos (maybe less depending on Q/T suits on flop)
QQ - 3 combos.

So you should be ahead here around 75% of the time.
If you don't think he'd raise 66 pf, it's a lot closer.

**** it.
Raise the river, call a 3-bet.

I think 88/QTs seem the most likely given how the hand played out.

J9 didn't rank very high on my list of possible hands seeing as MP2 doesn't seem all that great for opening J9...but your more experienced at 5/10 then me.

I forgot J9s. I have to include that if I include QTs.

I think J9s is a possible opening hand from MP2.

This sways my decision to a call.

At 5/10, in middle-late position, we're raising a lot of hands. I'm raising QTs. Though I'm not raising J9s preflop most of the time, I know players that would. He could also be raising 77-AA (66 is a stretch, I think, but also possible). Not that it matters in this hand, but preflop he's also raising Ax suited and A7-AK offsuit. I'd be raising any 2 suited cards T or above if I were him. He's solid, not a rock.

ummmm, why on earth is a solid player raising J9s PF from MP2, cause even my laggro ass isn't doing that there


Well, QQ is the only logical hand that can beat you right now. I can see him making a raise PF with Q10s, so him going nuts on the turn with top two can make a lot of sense. 88 is also very much in the realm of possibilities. Personally I lean towards a raise on the river, and throw up all over the place if it gets three bet

I don't think J9 or QQ is logical based on your read and how the hand played out. I say best guess is 88.

haven't read replies, but i would still raise this, despite your read.

the only time i would call with your read is if i'm sure he DOESN'T open-raise 66 and/or 88 preflop there.

most "solid" players do, so with 66 and 88 very likely (he c/c's a bet on the flop with a set then c/r's the turn), him having 66/88 is more likely than him having QQ.

plus, plenty of "solid" players cap QQ preflop there too.

i think calling here is a little weak. i'd say you're good more than 30% of the time. i'm not capping, though.

aseem

just nitpicking, but why does it bother some players so much if they get three-bet? we are raising here with the mindset "we are good > 33% of the time" specifically because we KNOW in advance that we are calling a three-bet.

these statements make it sound like we have another super-tough/sick decision if it gets three-bet. that might not have been your intent. i'm just making an observation about something i've noticed a lot.

why would a three-bet here bother you so much? you're probably beat, pay the man off. big deal. you knew you would before you raised.

aseem

let me try...

Raise.
Isn't he almost always capping with QQ?
J9 suited.. hmm.
I still go with raise / call 3-bet

>>>>>>>>.
after reading replies..

yeah!..I"m not an idiot.

Aseem? Don't we have to be good 2/3 times, not 1/3 to raise?

yes, my bad. replace all the "> 33%" with "> 67%".

aseem

I called.

He had 88.

Well, I was finally right on a hand. Go me.

Damnit, dont post results so early.

I was just about to suggest capping the turn and river.

damn damn, i just told my friend behind me you've gotta raise that river and probably even cap a 3-bet (read-dependent).

he isn't raising 9J that early, and he isn't check-calling QQ on the flop. therefore its 10-Q, 66 or 88. bam.

i think thats a much easier hand to analyze than play, since its hard to eliminate 9J and QQ when you're in the hand. i think analyzing this hand is relatively easy. then again, the results were already posted :wink: