Villain is 58/12/1.03 over about 100 hands.

Hero is dealt K J on the button. Five folds, Villain raises from Hijack, Hero 3-bets...

Discuss.

I'll start...I found this hand last night when I was going through my database, and I can't decide whether a play like this is a leak or a good isolation raise. Obviously, it's based on some sort of read. Mostly, that the Hijack is loose and aggressive pre-flop, meaning that he could raise several worse hands than KJ. But, are we good against his range of hands? What do you all think?

preflop doesn't matter.

is he bad postflop?

that's the important question.

if yes, then fine.

if no, then not fine.

aseem

i think there are more important stats to consider - like how his PFR goes up as his position becomes better, and his steal percentage. if he's only raising 12% of the time, his range includes a lot of hands better than or dominating KJo and not bad that are behind it. That may be less true if his steal/CO numbers are particularly high.

given his AF is relatively high for someone with such a high VPIP, he will probably make a play for the pot after the flop. check out when he tends to do this - it'll probably be on the flop. you will probably be able to outplay him and win the pot unimproved, but check out his other stats for further information.

cheers,
daniel

Depends on how good hero is postflop compared to villian.

i don't think 'how good' our hero is is particularly pertinent.
our hero can easily look at the villain's tendencies - probably aggressive on the flop, but also perhaps on the turn. he can look at his range of raising hands from the hijack, and hopefully has some idea on how the villain usually reacts to reraises and/or blind re-steals.

with all that information, and given the texture of the board, our hero should be able to put together a strategy that minimizes risk and allows him to take the pot unimproved.

likely this will mean either betting the flop, turn and river when checked to, raising a flop bet, or reraising a flop check-raise. the key of course, is to be able to get away from the hand if in fact the villian does make a hand while not getting pushed off a hand if he does not.

my point was just that if you are going to reraise an aggressive player with KJo, you should be prepared to outplay him post-flop, since he probably isn't going away quietly and you don't have a premium hand to defend yourself with.

cheers,
daniel

How "good" he is directly relates to whether he's capable of outplaying him postflop.

Would you rather get involved in this pot with a player who wins the maximum and loses the minimum vs you (good)?

Or a player who won't extract the maximum when he's ahead, and call down with a second best hand when he's behind (bad)?

but this isn't live poker - his 'talents' are not of significant consequence in my opinion. he has pokertracker - he only needs to be 'good' insofar as he needs to be able to come up with a logical strategy in response to the information PT presents him, the texture of the board and any deviations from expected villain play.
i think this significantly differs from a live poker game, where you would have to make decisions based on far less factual information and also not present the villain with any useful information.

I just got back to the board and have read everything in this thread. I think how good the hero is in relation to the villain postflop is probably important. I tend to assume that I'm better than any villain with this guy's numbers, but maybe that's a bad assumption...I'm not really sure.

I've also been thinking quite a bit about this hand today, and I'm trying to figure out why I made this particular play. I think that if I remember correctly it was based on a specific read (if I'm thinking of the right villain, I had seen him showdown a K5s after raising pre-flop, hence I assumed that I may very well be ahead and the raise might even be for value, and if not for value, it was to take control of the hand.)

Here's the thing. Against this particular villain, I don't think I can fold KJ on the button, but I'd rather be in a heads-up pot against him, than have to face whatever the blinds might decide to see a discounted flop with. I believe I have an edge over this player postflop anyway, and by raising I'm taking control of the hand, plus I have position...so on balance I think the play is ok, but maybe only in very specific situations.