TheCinciKid
Thursday, October 20th, 2005, 1:37 AM
QUOTE (Davin)
QUOTE (Abbaddabba)
First: 50-60 is a small and insufficient sample to see if it's at all representative of your true win rate.
QUOTE
w/ microlimits, you can have a good rush for an hr, and end up being up just $10. multitabling sng's, if you play correctly, you can make $100+ in just a couple hrs.
Second: you are not averaging $100+ playing ten dollar sit and goes in a couple hours. I promise you that. You may have had a good run within that tiny sample of 50-60, but it's just a rush like you would experience in a small stakes cash game. The difference is that "rushes" and "downswings" are more pronounced in STT's when the outcome of an entire tournament rests on a few key hands.
The best players out there average only marginally better than 50% in the money win rate. 50% leaves you with an average of $7 per STT, assuming each pay position is as probable as the next (and unless you have some atypical phenomena in your play that skews that figure, it will be). Most people won't come close to averaging $7 per tournament.
Each tournament takes between a half hour and an hour to complete, i would guess (i could be off). Suppose 45 minutes is the average roughly. The best you could hope to acheive is $10 an hour per table. Playing 5 tables at once, you're still - assuming you're the best of the best - not making more than $50 an hour.
A typical winning player won't average more than a buck or two per tournament, if that... and a typical player will not be able to keep up with 5 tournaments at once.
The competition may be weaker at STT's, but that's more than compensated for by the fact that any edge is diminished significantly when the blinds go up so quickly.
i completely understand that the top pro's only avg. 50% win ratio at sng's. i also understand that i could rush and win a couple in a row, and end up dry for the next 10. and i know that my 50-60 $10 sng's isn't a large sample size by any means
but i think you're missing my point
im simply saying that
$10 sng's are the easiest online games that i have ever played at. the blinds may approach fast, but w/ the looseness and fishinessl of your opponents, these tables are incredibly easy to beat
top pro's may only win 50% of their sng's, but they're playing against much much better opponents. at these levels, a good player can avg. a 50% win rate
so 50% win rate = $6.50/sng.
let's assume you can multitable 3 tables effectively and that the avg. table is 3/4 hr in length
3 x sng/(.75 hr) = 4 sng's/hr
4 x 6.50 = $26/hr
even at just 40% win rate = $3.20/sng
4 x 3.20 = $12.80/hr
that's about 50BB/hr playing .15/.25
I originally built my roll playing $10 SnG's, then I hit a downswing and decided to learn limit and I haven't really looked back since. I still play some SnG's, but I don't play them as a means of building bankroll anymore really. More for a change of pace and to have fun. That said, they can be incredibly frustrating so it's not always much fun, but I digress. I really disagree with your figures here.
First of all, your 50-60 SnG numbers are a drop in the bucket, as are the very extensive records I kept over the course of somewhere around 150 $10 SnGs. According to Poker Prophecy I had 145 $10 SnG's, with 45% ITM, this is about the same as what I had in my database, and I kept more details in my personal records. When I hit my major downswing and switched to limit cash games, My ROI was about 30%, which I believe is on the high side of what a good player can expect (this is based on stuff I've read...incidentally I highly reccomend bet-the-pot.com for more SnG related info.) I was 2 & 3-tabling them and it was on Party, so they were done in a little less than an hour. I had my hourly rate figured up at about $7.60 an hour. You might be able to bump this a little higher if you can 4-table and show slightly better results than I did (I say slightly better, because my PokerProphecy stats put me in the top 20% of all players in their database...therefore, you're not going to be doing significantly better than I was, over a long period of time).
Basically, $26/hr. playing $10 SnGs is flat-out preposterous. At
best, you might be able to make $10/hr., but you'd have to be damn good and play at least 3-4 at once. That said, it could be more profitable to play SnG's than cash games, depending on your skill level and proficiency at each. I'm too tired to run the numbers right now, but I'd say the two are probably pretty similar if you are following proper bankroll guidelines.
Finally, to the OP...I just want to mention that SnG's are a completely different animal than NL cash games. The strategy is completely different and the game plays differently. You can be a very good SnG player and a total donator in cash games, or vice versa, though if you're good enough at poker to do one of them well, you can probably learn to do the other. My suggestion would probably be that you play $5 SnG's and limit cash games following proper bankroll guidelines. If you're having trouble with NL cash games, wait til you have a bigger bankroll, then play the micro tables to learn.