Shaffer
Tuesday, October 18th, 2005, 8:40 PM
Being the person that actually played this hand, I called. Here's why:
Villian was not a complete donk. After 100+ hands I felt I had a decent read on him - he was aggressive when he needed to be and felt there was no way that he pushes all-in with a 3, or 55 here. First he was a little too tight to be calling 4xbb pfr's with A3s from the SB, and if he had, I felt there was zero way whatsoever that he forces me off my most likely holdings (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ) without squeezing some value out of me when I'm drawing dead to runner-runner. His play had been standard semi-t-agg, fairly vanilla so far, so I assumed that his berzerko all-in had a kind of fish-logic purpose, and that that purpose could only be that he had:
- flopped a vulnerable overpair
- was scared s___less of being drawn out on
- never bothered to consider that he might actually be behind
Couldn't think of anything else that made sense.
It's all and good to have contempt for the $1NL players (as most are very bad), but I think you miss out on a lot of value if you automatically assume every berzerko out-of-nowhere push means a monster. Now if he bets, I raise, and he comes over the top, that's a different story.
Of course, it sucks when you're wrong and he has it, but against this player, most of the time you have him beat and a call is +EV in my opinion. A fold smells like scared money.
On the other hand, what the hell do I know?
Good discussion tho. Thanks to Poppin for posting it here.