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Full Version: nut low with outs to scoop (plo8)
FCP Poker Forum > Poker Strategy Forum > Omaha Hi-Lo
mkeller3086
10I'm going to start posting a ton of omaha hands, mostly plo8

most of the decisions in these hands are probably fairly easy and obvious, but these obvious situaions that are so common are what i need work on the most

i'm new to the came, any criticism is welcome.

Hand 1

I'm in the BB with A icon_suit_diamond.gif 10 icon_suit_diamond.gif J3

6 callers, i check in the BB (7 players)

Flop:

6 icon_suit_diamond.gif 5 icon_suit_club.gif 2 icon_suit_diamond.gif

I bet .75, 3 callers

Turn: 8 icon_suit_heart.gif

I bet 2, one caller

River: 6 icon_suit_heart.gif

I check, button pots, I fold.

Nut low with 9 outs to scoop or 3/4 this pot, i know i'm oop, but this seems like a flop and turn i'm going to stick with and try to get some money in for the times i hit, this is a passive table to really at no point do i feel like i'm going to get blown out of this pot with a huge raise.
Petoria
I dont like this fold, I think you're getting half this pot most of the time, how much are you really saving if you get quartered? Not very much.

Also for future reference it would be cool if you could post what site this is at, the stakes, and if possible, the pot size on each street.
mkeller3086
no problem, i'll start doing that
Rocketwadster
I like the fold there, as based on some simple math, isnt it about $8 to win $8 (just half) if you are lucky (you will be 1/4'ed many times here)? Looks like a fold to me, as I can't realistically see you winning 3/4 of the pot very many times. 8)
Chamonyx
Great example of the importance of position with respect to decision making!

Given the action it is unlikely that you are up against A34, as any competent player would have played back at you with that. You are probably up against another A3, in which case lets say (for now) it is 50:50 who gets high, or a high only hand, in which case you get half. So your expected result is(using Rocket's $8):

get 3/4: +10
get 1/4: - 2
get 1/2: 0

So if it really is 50:50 for high with another A3, you should call. However if you think there is more than a 5:1 chance he has you beat for high, you should fold.

So, to win high he needs to have: K,Q, 6,5 8,2, A in his hand. There are 21
cards he can have out of the 42 we don't know about and he has 2 slots to fit them in (as we have given him A3 in his other 2). So the probability of him having at least one of these is 3/4.

Using these probabilities, the EV of calling becomes: +10x.25-2x.75=+1

So it's still a call - but it's very close.
JacKingOff_suit
I haven't read the others' responses in detail and I am not going to comment anything else but the river play.

You gotta call the river.

Think about it.

If button had A3 AND anything else (say A34x, A36x) on the flop, even an idiot would had raised or potted it back to stop the flush draw.

Instead you should had potted to take the lead.
hotbacon
Is it bad to check the turn?
mkeller3086
QUOTE (JacKingOff_suit)
I haven't read the others' responses in detail and
Instead you should had potted to take the lead.


I should be potting the river or the flop?

Assuming you are talking about the river, which i don't think you are, what do I do if he raises, even like a min raise or a little more, not necessarily a pot raise?
Wintermute
Not a bad flop to check-raise for the pot. If you're going to lead, just lead for the pot. Your hand will be disguised if you do this regularly.
JacKingOff_suit
QUOTE (mkeller3086)
QUOTE (JacKingOff_suit)
I haven't read the others' responses in detail and  
Instead you should had potted to take the lead.


I should be potting the river or the flop?

Assuming you are talking about the river, which i don't think you are, what do I do if he raises, even like a min raise or a little more, not necessarily a pot raise?


Pot the flop, turn and river, Wintermute gave a good point.
mkeller3086
let me get this straight

am I always going to be playing this aggressively when I pick up a hand like this one where I have the low side made and I have outs to pick up the nut high as well?

does that fact that I have no counterfeit protection affect the decision at all?
Wintermute
QUOTE (mkeller3086)
let me get this straight

am I always going to be playing this aggressively when I pick up a hand like this one where I have the low side made and I have outs to pick up the nut high as well?

does that fact that I have no counterfeit protection affect the decision at all?

When I flop nut low with nut flush draw (even as little as nut low draw + nut flush draw), I am looking to get as much money in the pot as possible. Sure, if your opponents were all playing by a tight nut-peddling strategy, you would get called only when you're perhaps behind, and would pick up only a small pot when everyone folds, but you're not playing against these types of players. Some will look at that board and imagine their A4 holding up, or catching a 3 to make it nut low. Others will gladly put chips in with a K-high flush draw or two pair, completely oblivious to the fact that they're getting freerolled or perhaps drawing dead. If you put your opponents on a reasonable range of hands, your hand will lead that range substantially. It's just a monster hand.
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