$30/$60 at the Bellagio


I get A 3 in the SB.

MP3 opens with a raise, CO cold calls, I semi-cold call in the SB.

Flop is 9 ,7 ,3
I check, MP3 bets, CO calls, I call.

Turn is the 7
I check, MP3 checks, CO bets, I raise...

Sexy.

I think I like it so far.

A pocket pair less than 9's and ahead of 3's would suck... but I think if you get called and lead any river you have a chance of being good.

If you get raised... I think you have to call and check/fold the river unimproved.

meh.

uninteresting.

if MP is tight, sure.

otherwise, spewage.

aseem

could you elaborate?

I'm a lot more worried about CO than MP; vs. most low limit players I'd figure he had at least a pocket pair that he wouldn't fold, so I'd just fold. Any read on CO?

PF seems a bit light...

These aren't low limit players.

it almost plays like low limits most of the time.

MP looks like he whiffed with a couple of big cards so I think maybe my A3 is good.

Unless CO is somewhat LAG, he must have a better hand than you here, right? It's easy to put MP on overs (unless he's tricky), but he's got to figure you for something after you semi-cold-called PF, and called the flop.

It just seems like most people who would cold-call PF with a 9 would be loose enough to call down here. So I don't think you can win this, unless CO would bet a draw here.

COs range is difficult.

He cold calls with stuff like KQ and T9s and pocket pairs.

So he could have anything and just peel the flop. He could have a medium pocket pair which he will fold sometimes. I can improve with another 3 or A. It looks like I have a 7.
He could have a draw which he calls with.
He could have a 7 which he 3-bets.
He could have a 9 which he probably calls with.

The pot is 6BB and im risking 2BB.

I probably fold to a 3-bet and check/call the river UI (bet/call river if I improve).

This should make for some discussion.

Chris should be making this play with any two cards here.

actually, i misread and thought the turn bettor was also the flop bettor / preflop raiser.

my bad.

aseem

i agree, though qualifying this with any two PLAYABLE cards to that raise preflop (which, for the record, includes a3s), provided we've got outs to anything other than a 7.

MP's check on the turn is either a tricky checkraise (highly unlikely, though this is my personal favorite move) or a hand that he'll definitely throw away to your SB raise. CO probably smells this and is betting his any-two. your raise is going to get a CO PP to go away, or overs to make a mistake. if you're 3-bet, i'd say this is a pretty easy fold to what must be a 7. if you're called, i probably bet/fold the river unimproved and bet/call if i spike an ace.

edit: for the record, i'm putting CO on 66-ish, which would be very hard pressed to call a raise/lead.

yeah, i felt the same way.

depends not on his cards, but on the players.

if CO is a frequent bluffer in this spot, AND the preflop raiser is tight, AND BB is tight, it works.

a lot of "and"s though...

aseem

i would say that most 30/60 live players are bluffers in this spot. i haven't played in vegas, but that's definitely true of the 20/40 game i play.

the PFR doesn't have to be tight--he just has to have overs. AK can't call two cold to a board that just paired when he might be drawing dead. if he's got KK, then he's got KK, but that would be a wonky check on the turn if he did.

Thats pretty much how i thought about it.

Also, BB isnt in the hand so it makes it a bunch easier.

good, nice to know vegas hasn't yet ruined your brain. :-)