JaysonWeber
Tuesday, October 4th, 2005, 11:22 PM
Hero is dealt Q

J

Mid-Late Position at a fullish table.
Limps in, 4 to the flop
10

5

7
UTG Bets, MP Raises, Hero Calls, Button 3 bets, UTG Calls, MP Calls, Hero Caps, All Call
Turn is a 6
UTG Bets, MP Calls, Hero Raises, Button Calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero Caps, Everyone to the river.
River is a 8
UTG Bets, Hero Raises, Folded to UTG who 3bets, Hero Caps, UTG Calls.
No Overly Aggresives... No Rock'ish Tight-Passives.. Standard talbe of TAGs and LAGs.
Potsize is now 32.
Demiparadigm
Tuesday, October 4th, 2005, 11:33 PM
Preflop standard
Flop is perfect
Turn, just call HU. The extra players in the hand make a cap better, not because you beat UTG more often, but because you win a bigger pot when you do.
River just call the bet. You no longer have the extra equity of players tagging along.
In fact, just calling is better since you capped the flop "tabling" your hand.
What possible holding does UTG continue to bet after your turn cap screamed "I have a flush?"
Raising simply opens your hand up to be 3 bet by a better hand.
The cap is spewing chips.
Actuary
Tuesday, October 4th, 2005, 11:52 PM
UTG not raising preflop /capping flop makes me less likley to put him on a better flush.
I like the play...even river cap..I give you 50%+ to win.
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 12:00 AM
QUOTE (Actuary)
I like the play...even river cap..I give you 50%+ to win.
Only 50%? I thought it was higher than that.
Actuary
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 12:17 AM
QUOTE (JaysonWeber)
QUOTE (Actuary)
I like the play...even river cap..I give you 50%+ to win.
Only 50%? I thought it was higher than that.
50+ !
that's all u need to cap.
You raised with 2 others still in.
I'd say the overlay from a possible 3rd player getting trapped makes the first riase okee dokee...then the cap u only need ot be 50%.
of course, u know, I don't know much
MrNiceGuy
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 12:19 AM
QUOTE (JaysonWeber)
QUOTE (Actuary)
I like the play...even river cap..I give you 50%+ to win.
Only 50%? I thought it was higher than that.
Assuming UTG+1 would not 3-bet the turn without a flush, I think it's quite a bit lower than 50%.
7 ways he can have an A-high flush, 6 ways he can have a K-high flush, plus 9d8d, 8d4d, and 4d3d gives 16 possible flush hands that beat you.
Since there are 8 unseen diamonds, there are 8*7/2 = 28 total flush hands he could have. So that leaves only 12 flush hands he could have that you can beat (T9, T8, T4, T3, T2, 94, 93, 92, 83, 82, 42, 32).
Plus, he played the hand preflop, and he led the river after you capped the turn. These both suggest that he almost certainly has a flush from the first group, rather than the second.
So I think you should probably just call down after he 3-bets the turn, unless you think he would 3-bet without a flush there.
Actuary
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 12:29 AM
Mr NiceGuy,
good post.
I didn't think about the str8 flushes
ah, I think the cap is closer..but fine.
THer other flush could be a str8...really aggressive palyer seeing all the overlay and trying to win a huge pot. I dont know. ! bet..light but fine I say.
screech
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 2:53 AM
Jayson,
Unless UTG is a total donk, I don't tihnk this hand is an overplayed set/straight/lower flush, often enough for you to cap this river.
I think his most probable hands in this order are:
Adxd
Td9d/9d8d
89s
77
After he 3-bets the river.
I would guess he plays 89s (straight) and 77 this way almost never.
Again, this assumes he doesn't suck.
screech
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 3:00 AM
QUOTE (JaysonWeber)
QUOTE (Actuary)
I like the play...even river cap..I give you 50%+ to win.
Only 50%? I thought it was higher than that.
Not after he 3-bets the river.
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:07 AM
QUOTE (screech)
Jayson,
Unless UTG is a total donk, I don't tihnk this hand is an overplayed set/straight/lower flush, often enough for you to cap this river.
I think his most probable hands in this order are:
Adxd
Td9d/9d8d
89s
77
After he 3-bets the river.
I would guess he plays 89s (straight) and 77 this way almost never.
Again, this assumes he doesn't suck.
What adxd is he raising here? What range?
T9 and 89? How? He leads every chance he gets...
89s - no, not this hand, he doesn't get nuts like that, so it's ruled out.
77, well yeah, a set is the only hand I can really put him on while this went through my head....
Just a set...
Bubba83
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:25 AM
I'm thinking Ad 10d is quite possible for UTG. I don't mind capping the turn, your hand can be good and you are charging a hand like Ad 10s to hit a river diamond. When UTG leads out at the river I am confused, and I think I would just call, hoping for overcalls in this situation instead of opening up my hand to a 3 bet.
screech
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:32 AM
QUOTE
What adxd is he raising here? What range?
ATs, A9s, A8s. (diamonds of course).
QUOTE
T9 and 89? How? He leads every chance he gets...
Td9d gives him TP plus a flush draw.
9d8d gives him a flush draw plus a gutshot.
I would't be suprised to see him play any of these hands this way.
89s (for the straight), not so much. I said it's unlikely he plays it this way in my reply...same with a set.
More often than not you're behind here when he 3-bets the river IMO.
What range do you put him on?
Smasharoo
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:34 AM
What adxd is he raising here?
All of them?
What ace high flush draw isn't capping this on every street from the flop on 4 handed??
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:37 AM
EDIT, I'm editting postflop, we all put in 2 bets not one... doesn't affect it much.
The range i had him on? Honestly.. 55 and 77, he doesn't play those suited cards he isn't tricky... he's just a basic player who might break even.
Briguy
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:57 AM
He doesn't limp with Axs? Is he an eagle? I can see eliminating the straight flush possibilities (he is UTG), but if you include 55 and 77 in his limping range from UTG, you pretty much have to include Axs. IMO.
I realize that the turn is still multiway, and that you have value in capping if you figure to have the best hand 25+% of the time. A set is still a possibility (in which case, UTG is correct to bet like crazy with four people involved, drawing to ten outs and possibly with the best hand). But a set does not lead/3-bet that river over 50% of the time, unless he's oblivious to the rest of the board. I think you can call his river bet, go for the overcalls, and hope that he doesn't turn Axs over.
Demiparadigm
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 4:57 AM
QUOTE (JaysonWeber)
EDIT, I'm editting postflop, we all put in 2 bets not one... doesn't affect it much.
The range i had him on? Honestly.. 55 and 77, he doesn't play those suited cards he isn't tricky... he's just a basic player who might break even.
I have nothing nice left to say about this hand.
NO thinking player 3 bets the river with ANY hand that you beat. PERIOD.
To cap the river is ridiculous.
I will allow for argument about any other play in this hand. I even agree that the turn cap is the best play.
There is simply no hand that any reasonable player will 3 bet you with on the river that you have beaten after the play on all the prior streets.
I don't care whether you won this hand or not.
I don't care what the stakes were.
I SINCERELY hope this wasn't a B&M hand, in which case you should have called down from the turn on in Vegas.
(Go ahead and cap the river at the Commerce, those guys are crazy)
Nice hand.
Good luck.
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 5:18 AM
I SINCERELY hope this wasn't a B&M hand, in which case you should have called down from the turn on in Vegas.
You haven't been to town recently have you?
akishore
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 5:26 AM
QUOTE (JaysonWeber)
I SINCERELY hope this wasn't a B&M hand, in which case you should have called down from the turn on in Vegas.
You haven't been to town recently have you?
LOL.
hmm, this one i HAVE read replies :wink: .
i think the river is really close. i'd do it (cap it i mean), but i think it's pretty close.
you say he's really straightforward break-even-ish, but that makes me believe he has you beat with an ace-high flush much more often than he is betting with a non-straight-flush underflush.
since he's passive and straight, know what i mean?
aseem
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 6:01 AM
since he's passive and straight, know what i mean?
Yeah I guess I didn't mean it in a nice way when I said that... He isn't ridiculously stupid, but he also can make a lot of bad plays... The only hand I saw him playing this way was MAYBE an ace high a medium'ish kicker... and most of those where out there on the board when all was said and done, so I gave it less credibility.
This one is very player/situation dependent I guess.. But I hadn't played w/ the guy for more than 30 minutes... but given his position, the way it's played... I figured that the Ad-xd was less likely than anything else.. Anyone notice the straight got there? Maybe he's worse than I thought... I never did see his cards btw... Sort of why im trying to thin this down.
mrdannyg
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 6:12 AM
i think this hand plays pretty straightforwardly. the raise on the turn to at least force Ad-X and Kd-X to pay for their draws (and maybe kick out the king). on the river, I don't hate the raise, as your flush is high, but I think the cap is just spewing. i'd say he 3-bets there with ace-high, probably with king-high and only a decent chance with 10-high or worse. After his 3-bet, i don't think you win 50% of the time.
I like the cap on the flop though. Not just for equity, but because its a bit of a disguise, since a lot of donks will 3-bet a slowplayed hand there, so when you come out raising on the turn, it slightly disguises your flush.
cheers,
daniel
Bubba83
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 6:23 AM
I'd rather call the river, remember if the Button calls we get the same value as raising (button folding) and UTG calling. So we could get the same value of raising here when we are possibly beat by just calling and letting the button call behind us. By raising we can be almost assured the button is folding and it's unknown whether we will just get a call by UTG or a 3 bet. As other people have said if you get 3 bet it's looking below 50% in my opinion too, so i'm just calling the river I think.
Briguy
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 6:31 AM
Lol @ results. What the hell did he think you had, in order to 3-bet that river? I guess these guys don't think on that oh-so-daunting second level, eh?
JaysonWeber
Wednesday, October 5th, 2005, 6:41 AM
QUOTE (Briguy)
I guess these guys don't think on that oh-so-daunting second level, eh?
Hence the cap.
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