Last night I played an Omaha hand that got me thinking. It was a .50/1 game and I was on the button w/ Q 10 K J .

Since I had a strong hand and I had the button I raised and was re-raised by BB. One player in the middle called and I capped. I capped it for a couple of reasons. I didn't think I had the best hand at that moment, but I thought my chances to improve to the best hand were pretty good. That coupled w/ being in last position led me to believe capping was better than just calling. So I capped and both players called.

I put the BB on a hand w/ a big pair like AAXX, or KKXX - a good hand to start w/, but given my drawing power I wasn't too scared.

Well, the flop came down K 5 9 . I had flopped the 2nd nuts.

The pot was raised or capped on every street and the board never paired, so I still had the 2nd nuts on the end.

My question is this; If I've got the 2nd nut flush what are the chances that someone else has the A-high flush? I thought it pretty improbable as he would have to have 2 of the remaining 8 clubs, with one of them being the A . As it turned out the BB did have the A-high flush. So, was this poorly played on my part, or did I just end up in a really unfortunate situation?

My rough estaimate for the chance of BB holding Ace flush was bout 10%, [1x7x43x42]/[45x44x43x42/4x3x2x1]. I am sure that's not the exactly number because I haven't dealt with statistics for a long time after college.

But you have to, have to, have to think about this, the board had three clubs, if your villain had, say AA, KK, 55, 99, would he reraise/cap every street? Everyone knows a set is a chasing hand (especially on a flush board) and merely does the calling until the board is paired at best for a chasing moron.

Say if he had a non-nut flush, then the best he could had a JcXc, then the next best one would be 8cXc, would he reraise/cap every street?


You may question what if your villain had a set then a non-nut flush, no he still won't 3-bet/cap every street.

It's not a question of probability, it's a question about how BB played.

If BB still raise you, or 3-bet you on the turn, let it go!

LO and LO8 are all about playing for the nuts. Not the 2nd nut but the nutty nut, no question, no doubt!

Have fun!

Tough situation, but with that much action on each street, it would be hard to think my hand was best. With that obvious a board, MOST people are getting out without trips or a flush, and usually raise with A high. Tough one, but I think I would have tried to either slow things down or got out.