5-10 limit

Villian is after about 30 hands 20 / 7 / 1.68 and seems real solid


7 handed


Downswingin' Ex-hero has K-Q UTG


Hero raises, Villian cold calls, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls.


FLOP: [4c 9s 4d]

BB checks, Hero bets, Villain calls, BB folds.


TURN: [4c 9s 4d][2c]

Hero bets, Villain calls.


RIVER: [4c 9s 4d][2c][6d]

Hero???

Check/Call. Getting raised here sucks. A9 or a mid pocket pair seems likely though.

It seems to me that you're behind here regardless.

My thoughts are he either has a mid pp (77,88,TT), or AK/AQ and maybe AJs, and KQs is a possibility.

If you think you can get Ax to lay down here a significant portion of the time, bet. If not, just check/fold.

Yeah that's the problem, I don't know if he'd fold A-K or A-Q after he called the turn...

Check-call?

What would he bet that I could beat? He seems solid from the 30 hands I have on him... (I saw him fold a BB earlier when I raised)

Unfortunately I can't help you with that because I wasn't at the table.

Paying attention to when he may hold these types of drawing hands and then fold HU on the river is very important. Figuring out whether or not an opponent likes to pick off bluffs or not can be accomplished by being active in every hand.


Without any reads besides PT stats on this guy, I'd be inclined to bluff. A bluff only has to succeed 15% of the time. Given the way he's played this hand, I would estimate he has Ax (no pair) about 50% of the time. I think an unknown with these stats will fold his no pair hand more than 30% of the time here.

Also, by betting, you get to see what he holds. You can then play these situations agianst him with much more confidence in the future.

I don't think this opponent is betting ace high if checked too.

You're right. I change my line. Bet fold.

ty.

I think these are the situations that differentiate great players from good players.

Man I wish I was great.

a third barrell is required here. DOn't be afraid to do it. Betting is the only way for you to win this pot, and with his stats I don't see him betting any big ace and he may only bet a PP there, but maybe not. YOu're getting 7.2-1 on your bluff, so he only needs to lay this down once every 8 times to come out a marginal winner, so if by your read that you can make him lay it down that much, then fire that thrid barrell