150 BB downswing, yada yada yada...

5/10, seven-handed

i am MP somewhere with A A .
..., i open, CO cold-calls, Button cold-calls, ...

CO: 43% / 0% / 1.5 ... 14 hands (l/p-pish?)
Button: 41% / 0% / 0.8 ... 29 hands (l/p-p)

(7 SB) Q 10 2
i bet, CO calls, Button calls.

(5 BB) 6
i bet, CO calls, Button calls.

(8 BB) 9
i ...

have no clue what to do.

aseem

given your reads are only after a few hands...

against 1 or at lower stakes I bet/call

against 2 I check/call

I think you have to bet here.

If CO raises, I call.

If button raises, I fold.

check call

I would check/call as with your luck lately, the donkey just hit his flush.

bet/fold

Edit: I don't think they are bluffing and most of the time neither has a flush. you don't want it checked thru.

Luck is no reason to miss value bets. In fact, this type of thinking is what causes some players to stay in downswings longer than they should.

That card completed more than one draw. I have a rule (simplistic tho it may be)...

If the card only completes one draw, I bet/call. If it completes multiple draws, check/call is probably best.

Jeff

My opinion (worth less than yours in my eyes) : If your reads are correct, they only raise with the goods. Bet/fold is the best line. Or maybe bet/call if the CO raises and the button folds, as CO is maybe more evolved than the other.

check/call 1 bet, fold to any more. I really hate the Bet/Fold line when your hand has showdown value. Showing this hand down cheaply is what you want to do here as it may or may not be good.

You need to be able to read the board well in these situations and realize this card hit lots of drawing hands as a flush gets there, straight draw maybe and could have given somebody 2 pair as well.

Jeff,

It only completed one OESD, and 1 gutshot. This is less than half the straight draws. If an opponent was on a straight draw, he probably missed, but could now have a pair of nines and will call one bet but not bet himself.

Also, you are going to have to call a bet anyway.

If these players were tighter/more aggressive, I would be much more inclined to check/call. Here, I think we loose too much value by check/calling.

Against one opponent I would bet, but against two opponents I'd check/call. A possible flush and straight just made it.

If you feel confident about folding to a river raise, then you might want to think about betting against two opponents.

Steve Griff

I was talking about the flush draw too, though. This card completes every conceivable draw someone calls the flop and turn with, IMO.



Yes, but it looks like a lose two win one situation to me. If it's the 9h or the 7s I bet/call. But the 9s is scary on two fronts.



You may be right. Like I said, it's just my rule and it's simple and probabaly -EV against passive players. Looks like the CO might just be aggressive enough to bet here though...

Jeff

check / call

for my benefit, is it correct to think that a bet on the river here is only going to be called by a better hand?

no.
any Q calls
others to.

thanks. I think I would still check/call this.

Absolutely not. It will get called here by much worse hands.

I agree with this (although if CO folds, and button raises, I'm calling).

If more opponents had seen the flop, I'd be more wary of drawing hands (since nobody would have folded a spade draw or KJ). But here I think it's worth value betting to get calls from AQ, KQ, QJ, KT, and perhaps some other hands.

Okay, what's the line between chip spewing and value betting? Over pair with dangerous board is value betting? High pocket pair with overcards on the board is chip spewing? I guess I should start a seperate thread on this or read a book on limit poker.

I want to emphsize this point.
We need to remember that these are the only other two that saw the flop. It's not like they stuck around from a group of 5 and figured to be good with a FD on board. Odds of either them holding 2 spades is very low.
Barring any river action to the contrary.

This is oversimplified.

A lot depends on your opponents. In this example, if our opponents were tight, a check/call may be better because they are not likely to be calling down with hands like middle pair/gutshot.

Read Small Stakes Hold Em if you want to pick up a good limit book.

Thanks and I will.

Small Stakes Hold'Em - by Miller, Sklansky, Malmuth? I have a couple others by Sklansky and Malmuth. Good content, terrible grammer. It's never an easy read by those two no matter how easy/difficult the concept.

That's the one. This one was written mostly by Miller and is an extremely easy read compared to the other Sklansky books.

First of all, I think some of you are putting too much emphasis on the PT "read" provided. These are over very few hands. I've seen my own PT stats range wildly over the first 50 hands or so.

I like check/call. I know lots of hands that you beat will call a bet here, but I think too many draws complete, so I'd rather lose the value bet than get re-raised. I dont like any line with a fold in it here. We dont have a sufficiently good read to be making good folds.

They are far more likely to be of the loose passive type than the tight aggressive type, even if it's only over a small range of hands.

Any hand that beats you will bet.
Few hands that you beat will bet.
A lot of hands you have beat that will call a bet, will not bet.
Few players will raise as a bluff.

If the action goes bet-call-raise, the call in between has protected the pot from a bluff, and you can safely fold because if someone were going to raise TP, they would have done so already. In the case it goes bet-raise, you will have to call, because there is no protection against the bluff. This scenario won't happen all that often.

You will win more money here by taking the appropriate bet/fold or bet/call line, with bet/call being the more dominant of the two.

check/call.

i think this is clearly the best option. much better than bet/fold.

bet/fold or check/call... in a big downswing check/calling is best. It is the safest play and will keep u off tilt. Bet/fold when ur running well and confident in ur reads (obviously u only fold when ur sure hes raising with the flush).