Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with [Ad], [Kh]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) [Qd], [Ts], [2h] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ??


So the pot is laying me 9-1 and I basically only need 5 outs to make a call profitable. Against his likely range of hands, I have between 4 and 10 outs.

AA- 4
KK- 7
QQ-4
JJ-8
TT-4
99-10
A-K - split pot
A-Q - 7

Would a raise be correct here as his bet is an auto bet due to pre-flop 3-betting?

If Turn is a Jack - easy enough. If Turn is a blank?

Just call. You're only ahead of 1 hand at this point, AQ
You have good odds here, but you can't be too attached to this hand and must fold on a blank turn

Given that range, you have about 7 outs. Of course, sometimes you will still lose when you make a straight and your opponent makes a fullhouse. So let's say you have 6 outs. Clearly you should at least call.

I like raising because you may get a hand like 99/JJ/AK to fold. Also, if you are 3-bet, that means you are probably against AA/KK/QQ/TT/AQ. That means you have a weighted average of 5 outs. You can then fold the turn UI.

raise. screech says why, the biggest reason being that you get hands like JJ or 99 to fold. if you get 3 bet, call and check/fold if you don't hit.

He's behind AQ here too.

I wouldn't necessarily put BB on this limited range of hands unless you know something you haven't disclosed. I'd agree if the button did this, but I think you have to open up for the BB.


Your open raise came from the CO and that can always look suspicious...lots of people at all levels will reraise their BB (regardless of cards) to any late position opener. I guess this would depend on your table image, and BB's past behavior in that position. Even if you don't agree with that, I think hands like AJ, AT, KQ are also possible...perhaps any two paint, suited anyways, perhaps unsuited....I even wonder about any pair.

I like a reraise here to, like screech said, chase away some of those pairs and trouble cards, and, to really tell you where you're at.

I think there are some hands here that the BB could have where if do you hit your A or K on the turn you could be in a world of hurt.

What are your plans if the turn is K? If BB bets? If BB checks? If BB c/r's? I don't think you can fold, but I'm not sure if you do anything more than call him down.

I was wondering if the raise would be better.

Looks like it would be for the reasons mentioned. A blind defence didn't come accross my mind until shpaget pointed it out.

Thanks for the comments.

Just call.

*any* reads???

if he's passive postflop, this is an easy raise for a free card if you miss on the turn.

if he's aggressive postflop, just call.

aseem

I would think he'd have to be really aggressive postflop.

He's only going to go to war on this flop with AA/KK/QQ/TT/AQ (unless he's overly aggressive). That's 50% of his hands. I could also see him getting sneaky with a set/overpair here, and going for a c/r on the turn, which he will miss when you check behind.

i would say call the flop, unless you have ome kind of read on this guy.