5/10 5 handed, have a trouble seat but can't move... So I do what I can

Crazy LAG to my left but he's capable of folding to raises, Bets out whenever it's checked to him, capped w/ me preflop w/ pocket dueces already once... So he's going up and down. more down than up.

How did I play it?

Dealt A 10 in Small Blind, he is BB.

Folded to me, I check. He bets, I call...

Flop 8 9 3

I check, He Bets, I call.

Turn A

I check, He bets, I call w/ intentions of c/r'ing the river

River 4

I check, He Bets, I call..

Looks good to me.... did you not check raise the end because the flush hit?

I'm raise/calling this turn.

Jeff

Why?

Donk-bet the turn. You've got the best of it often enough, what's the purpose of giving him a free card when you are very likely ahead?

You are OOP. If the draw misses, and he just checks behind you, you are missing value.

If you're worried about the flush, why no check raise on the turn?

IMO, you should either follow through with your river plan, or c/r the turn.

This guy will bet if checked to.

Nm.
Just read that he is capable of folding to a raise. I check/call that river card too.

I still c/r the turn. We likley have the best hand on a draw filled board.

If JayWeb is that certain that he will do so, then I am in agreement with you that he's gotta C/R the turn.

Where is the shame in that? Knowing I will gain an extra bet on the river, possibly two (if I c/r on a safe river) into this sized pot (small).

Pot size is ~4.5 at the turn (soneone could correct me here I might be wrong.. didn't check)

Now, If I play it out and raise this turn, he calls me on a flushdraw, second pair, folds every other bluff/semi-bluff and he's bluffing a lot)

If the River is a non-heart the total pot size will be ~8.5
if the river is a heart the total pot size will be ~6.5

If I choose to raise the turn, or c/r the turn I win a smaller pot, and risk being way behind a big ace and getting 3 bet.

Another wa/wb hand don't you think?

I don't think so.

I think it is a likely ahead/could end up behind hand.

Against a "crazy lag" I'm not worried about him having a stronger A. I think you gotta go with your reads that he's a LAG and therefore you are ahead far more often than you are behind.

I think there's less shame in leading the turn and having him fold a smaller pot than letting him hit his flush (or straight) on the river cauz you gave him a freebee.

I'd even be more inclined to be slightly more passive if the potential straight draws weren't out there too. There are quite a few potential scare cards that could cauz you to derail your river C/R play.

raise the river.
Do you know the chances of him having a flush ????

If you would've raised a blank river, raise this one.


hope that sounded smart. :?

EDIT
ps. not endorsing or condemning the river riase, just saying this card should not impact yuor decision against a this lag

No It shouldn't and I should have followed through and c/r the river as well... Some are saying to c/r the turn, that's still an ugly line.

Haha.
Had it right the first time...

I think when the flush draw comes in the river, raising it isn't so good anymore. If he wasn't capable of folding to a raise, I'd like it, since he is, I really don't see you getting called by a worse hand more than 55% of the time.

What's so ugly about the turn c/r?

What's so ugly about the turn c/r?


My thoughts might be results oriented, the more I think of it.. It's closer to Neutral EV so c/r the river and c/calling when that heart comes.

The Turn C/R is ugly because he's bluffing on the river, this guy WILL fire a third shell.

More reason not to raise the river then. I really feel passive lately...

Something to be said about it, often it's correct...I've been putting up a lot of passive hands lately to stir up some good discussion.

I would have raised preflop. Imo. Where you up to something?

Yes, Letting a Lag take control of the hand w/ an inferior holding. A little Metagame Thinking I guess.

OOP, he's probably going to raise anyway, and continue to bet his chips away if checked too.

u can put the chances of him having the flush at less than the chances of him folding a better hand.
Thus representing the flush (as we easily could be with our c/c'ing) might get a fold once in a while from a better hand. This outweighs the chance that he'll raise with a better hand

I see the main potential problem with c/r as the c part, not the r part. But if we know he'll bet, then great.

I like your thought process on this hand.

I gotta go now, but I'll run some numbers by it later. I still think c/ring the river might be wrong, but who knows.

By c/r the turn you are going to either lose a bigger pot when your when your behind or win a smaller pot when your ahead. Check/call the turn and check/raise the river.

Ok, I ran some numbers and this is what I came up with (the call and fold %'s are when you raise the river):

Hand - Hand % - Fold % (total) - Call % (total)

AK-AJ - 10 - 25 (2.5) - 75 (7.5)
2 pair - 10 - 5 (0.5) - 95 (9.5)
Set - 5 - 0 (0) - 100 (5)
Flush - 15 - 0 (0) - 100 (15)

AT - 2 - 30 (0.6) - 70 (1.4)

A7-A5 - 10 - 40 (4) - 60 (6)
A2 - 3 - 50 (1.5) - 50(1.5)
Other pair - 15 - 80 (12) - 20 (3)

Everything Else - 30 - 0 (0) - 100 (30)

EV of Calling

40% x (-1BB) + 60% x (5BB) = 2.6BB

EV of Raising

3% x (5BB) + 37% (-2BB) + 0.6% x (5BB) + 1.4% x (3BB) + 10.5% x (6BB) + 17.5% x (5BB) + 30% x (5BB) = 2.49BB

It's close. But given these numbers, calling is better.

Value mostly. Also to charge on a draw heavy board.

For everyone worried that he might fold to a turn raise (and therefore don't want to raise it), IMO you are missing the point. Why is everyone so concerned about winning a pot? The most we'd miss out on there if he has no pair / no draw is 1 BB on the river and you're going to risk a pot of 5 BB on the turn to gain 1 on the river.

This is not necessarily wa/wb. There are lots and lots of draws on this board to charge. Think "Fundamental Theorem" for a second and stop pining over a 1 BB river bluff.

Jeff

Agreed.. I'm most likely playing this hard up front though... raise/capping preflop, bet/call flop, bet/raise turn, bet/call river.

I mean, are you planning on calling him down w/ A high if the turn doesn't come?

...

C/R the turn sucks, why would you take the lead from the LAG earlier than you have to? There is VALUE in letting him bet inferior hands, but when you check raise the turn, you lose the value of getting a bet or even 2 of him on the river.

C/R the river here because you've given him every opportunity to bet for you and a c/r on the river will get called more often than the turn because he only needs to pay 1 more bet to see the show down, on the turn he will have to pay two bets to see a showdown (1 to call and 1 on the river) which will force him off of his hand a good amount of the time, so you can expect to get paid off alot more often on the river than the turn.

are you mixing up turn and river..I so confused!

Fixed it, man I really butchered that one.

There's more value in getting our money in with an almost certainly large equity edge on the turn. Everyone seems to be conveniently overlooking the times when villain has a second best, but callable, hand when making their arguments in this thread.

If he's on a draw, raising the turn is better.

If he's got a second best hand, raising the turn is better.

In only one case, where we're beat, is raising very bad.

In the final case, we're ahead and he's bluffing, we lose exactly 1 BB on his bluff on the river, but we also win a 5 BB pot. I just can't accept that as a "bad" result.

I think a c/r on the river is a much riskier play than one on the turn.

Jeff

If he's got a second best hand, raising the turn is better.

So if he's got a second best hand you think its better to be nice and raise him earlier and let him know so he doesn't lose any more money in the pot?

Right. Because, again, it's unfathomable that he'd call with a second best hand or a draw?

Are you really expecting him to call our raise or raise on a bluff when you raise the river? When all the cards are out he's very unlikely to bet or call more than 1BB if we don't already have him beat on the turn. Thus making him pay on the turn is better.

Jeff

The river c/r would be profitable with AQ or better. With AT, we should simply call when the FD comes in.

Also, if he bets out whenever it's checked to him, where's the value in raising the turn? If he hits his flush draw, we will lose more, if he misses, we still win 2BB since he will bluff it checked too.

If he has something like a gutshot, we win 4BB by raising the turn. If we call we win 4.44BB (92% x 5BB - 8% x 2BB)

Ill summarize what i wrote above earlier.

If he's on a draw and he auto-bets the river after a miss, a call is better.
He'll never call the river if he misses after you raise the turn, but he'll always bluff if you just call.
When he misses, you make the same amount.
When he hits, you lose 1 or 2 fewer bets depending on if you lead/call the river, lead/fold or check/call.

In the OP it was written that he's capable of folding, which to me means that he probably isnt calling second pair here.
When he calls, you make 1 more.
When he folds, you make 1 less bet.

If he has a superior hand (assuming you call down) you lose 1 or 2 more bets depending if he 3bets.


Of course there's the possibility that both yours and his second best hand could improve, but the two situations roughly cancel each other out.