copernicus
Friday, September 16th, 2005, 8:40 AM
QUOTE (Drwnded)
In case anyone cares about results:
after the flop, I figured if he had two big cards like a,k or a,q then the flop just missed him. so I made a probe bet of 250, figuring that even though he's getting great odds to call that size bet, if all he has is two overcards he might still fold. He simply calls the 250. Now pot size is 1600, his remaining stack is 750, mine 500. Turn is 8h, giving a board now of:
10d, 7h, 2s, 8h
So his call of my probe bet makes me concerned he could have 10,10 or an overpair. However, now I've picked up an open-ended straight draw w/the 8 on the turn, and I may still have the best hand already w/my pair of nines, and I'm pot committed. So I put in my last 500. Even if he has an overpair like jacks or queens, the way I've played, he's still has to be concerned I may have a bigger overpair.
He makes the comment "i've gotta see what you have" and calls, turning over A,10 offsuit. Fortunately for me, the river brings a 6, giving me the straight and winning the pot for me.
The final outcome is not why i posted this (results don't matter), I'm just trying to eval my decision making. Just thought it was a very tough hand to think my way through in this setting. I appreciate all the input so far; any other comments would be welcome.
The real problem here isnt that you raised and he called, so now you dont know what to do, the problem is he played flop poorly, and there should be no post flop decisions to worry about.
When he hits the TPTK on the flop, what is your range of hands for your reraise and is he ahead or behind. Say you could have pairs 6+, AK, AQ, KQ. Thats 8 pairs with 6 ways, two pairs with 3 ways, 24 A hands and 16 for the KQ, 94 hands total. With that flop he's behind on 2 of the 6 way pairs and one of the 3 way hands to a set...15 out of 94 hands. Generously lets say hes only ahead 80% of the time. The 20% hes behind hes got 2 Ts (unless you have 2 already, 3/54 times and lets say that offsets running Aces) so hes got about a 8% chance at pulling out the other 20% and some of the 80% can lose to running cards...so lets say overall he sees himself as a 3/1 favorite to win.
How does he most likely lose? to Ks and Qs...so he needs to price you out of a little less than 6 outs twice (because they are only both in his hand in 16/40 times). So say he needs to lay you worse than 4/1, and with fold equity thats just about where he is putting you all in and there are no decisions to make..you call and suck out with the runner runner straight.