copernicus
Thursday, September 15th, 2005, 8:49 AM
QUOTE (DLizzle)
first i have to get one thing straight. Against a queen, do i not have 14 outs? (2 eights, 3 nines, and 9 diamonds)? This actually makes me a slight favourite over a queen, coin flip. (51, 49) In this tournament, nearly every hand that had a flop ended up with someone all in. So here's what actually happened next. I check, hoping for a slight chance at a free card which would make my decision much easier, I'm calling anything from one player, and folding to a bet and a call or raise. Player behind me pushes all in, he has a slightly bigger stack than mine, next player folds, I call. Now looking back, I think I should have at least put out a bet, but I can't decide if my call was wrong or not.
Yes technically the 9s are outs, though I tend to discount their value fairly heavily because they could help fill a straight draw and for them to have much earning potential they have to show up on the turn, so you cant consider them draws to 2 cards. The reasons I would credit them much value on the turn only are because they arent going to play well on the river if any 10-A shows up on the turn, and they have little value at all if a diamond hits on the turn, and diminished value if an 8 hits (yes they would then make a boat, but you probably dont need a boat, so they dont increase your implied odds very signficantly. So if I can count right 28 out of the 43 possible turn cards reduce the river value of 9s, and some of the "okay" 15 turn cards may turn out to be the second pair for the Qs.
If you want to consider them 1 out for 2 draws your probably not far off, but in the context of deciding how much to bet on the flop they dont change the decision at all...11 outs are plenty to assure that any bet of yours isnt pricing yourself out.
As far as calling the big blinds raise, I think it depends on the prize structure. If the significant increases in prize money are a few spots off I think calling is ok. You are getting something like 29/24 odds if you are behind, which means you need to be about 45% for it to be break even TC wise which you are pretty close to. (dont fall into the trap of thinking that pot odds are a switch where its 100% wrong to call without them, and 100% right to call with them...the EV difference for a few percentage points difference in winning chances is meaningless in the"short run"of your lifetime poker career). So I can easily see playing for doubling up and having a better chance at the higher payouts.
If moving up a spot or two is meaningful in prize money then I'm not playing whats likely to be a coinflip.